Hey Kilowatt

[completesportsman]

Forkwest said to hit you up for opions about MT bonus point system. If you don't mind sharing them I would love to hear what your opions are.
Thanks

 

[ForkWest]

I tried searching for that thread but couldn't find it. I'm sure he'll drop in.

 

[berto]

i have not seen a thread with Brian's (killowatt's) opinion on MT bonus points, but I have seen several from Bambistew that IMO were right on.

try doing a search for bambistew.

 

[ForkWest]

Maybe it was B-stew, I can't remember now.

I just remember the logic and math that showed that the $20 bonus point was a total waste of money, only helped your odds by a very miniscul amount.

 

[kilowatt]

That is correct FW. I believe it was back in 2001 when they started this Bonus Point $20.00 I think then.
I called twice to MT F&G Hdqts. and both times the person I had on the phone told me after a very lenghtly discussion on my phone bill not theirs, that this BP was not a guarantee you would draw but COULD help down the road.
It's been 6 years since then and like I told both of them they would not be getting another 20 bucks from me it was not giving me a better chance to draw.
So that year I applied for the Combo Big Game tag and drew and saved 20 bucks for a few 6-packs of beer. LOL

If their system has changed I don't know but seems like a few others agreed with me back then, don't remember exactly who but maybe the thread is still in the Archives here.

Brian

 

[old_man_of_the_hills]

Logic and math do show that the BPs help you do draw, however you are never guaranteed a tag. MT put up a spreadsheet of the unit/point breakdown this year. In MOST cases, those with the most points had higher sucesses of drawing tags...but every once in a while there was an anomoly...however next year for that same tag, the odds could be just as expected; more points equals better odds.

But please, don't buy the points...it helps me draw tags.

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This is my post

I've just pissed in my pants.......and nobody can do anything about it.

 

[ForkWest]

OK, So I had to figure this out for myself. Take a look at this logic and see if you agree. I may be changing my opinion.

These numbers are relatively close to actual, just rounded for simplicity. Lets say there are 6000 elk/deer combo tags, 10,000 people apply, giving odds of 60% draw success. For every year you don't draw you accumulate a bonus point (one extra chance in the hat) so with 40 % unsuccessful applicants there should be about 4000 people with their name in the hat twice, equates to14000 total chances in the hat. Following me so far?

Tags People ?Names in the hat?
6,000 10,000 14,000

or simply

6 10 14

Lets say this is the break down from above, 60% with 1 name in the hat, 40% with 2 chance in the hat.

Albert 1
Bob 1
Carl 1
Dan 1
Ed 1
Fred 1
Gary 2
Hank 2
Ivan 2
Jack 2__
14

If 1 tag is drawn:
Those with 1 shot have 1 in 14 or 7%
Those with 2 shots have 2 in 14 or 14%

Now the draw will take place until 6 tags have been drawn, so:

Albert has 7% + 7% + 7% + 7% + 7% + 7% = 42% chance of drawing
while
Jack has 14% + 14% + 14% + 14% + 14% + 14% = 84% chance of drawing

Now there is some statistics that also come into play but dive in way deeper than I want to go, the end impact would be slightly better odds based upon each time a name is drawn the pool is getting smaller, but again not significant enough to tackle

Summary: 42% chance or 84 % chance, worth $20? I think so if my math and logic is correct;-)

 

[ForkWest]

I'm headed over to bounce this off our R&D statatician. We'll see how legit it is.

 

[old_man_of_the_hills]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-03-07 AT 05:50PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Dec-03-07 AT 05:48?PM (MST)

LAST EDITED ON Dec-03-07 AT 05:47?PM (MST)


Here is an excerpt for the Elkhorn unit, as you can see, the BPs do increase your draw odds. But it's still a random draw, so if you look through the spreadsheet, you will find cases where people with less BPs has a higher chance of drawing than people with more...but generally, it works. I think it's alot better than going into a drawing, knowing that you will be waiting for years to get a tag. At least this way, there's a little anticipation every year.

Unit 380-20.....#BP......%Drawing success
resident..................... .24
resident.........0........... .85
resident.........1........... .58
resident.........2.......... 2.49
resident.........3.......... 2.58
nonresident.................. .6
nonresident......0........... .0
nonresident......1........... .0
nonresident......2........... .0
nonresident......3.......... 4.76

Here's one for the breaks

Unit 410-20.....#BP......%Drawing success
resident.................... .56
resident.........0........... .62
resident.........1........... .93
resident.........2.......... 2.68
resident.........3.......... 3.30
nonresident................. 1.25
nonresident......0........... .0
nonresident......1........... .0
nonresident......2.......... 4.76
nonresident......3........... .0



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This is my post

I've just pissed in my pants.......and nobody can do anything about it.

 

[ForkWest]

How I've laid it out above is definetaly wrong mathmatically, but the numbers are actually pretty close.

I also ran a spread sheet with a mock lottery, going out 30 drawings with 60% odds for people with 0, 1, and 2 bonus points, for a total of 300 sample points. This gave the following results. While it wasn't a probablitity calculation, its pretty dang close to theoretical.

0 bonus point = 39%
1 bonus point = 52%
2 bonus point = 73%

Bonus points do help. I've changed my mind, the $20 bucks is worth it.

 

[kilowatt]

ForkWest,

Question: Are you a resident of MT or Non-resident?

Now are you applying this coming 2008 and if so, is it for the Combo (Deer,Elk etc)???
If so, let us know if you drew and how many BP do you have now?

Granted, it will be 4-1/2 months yet before the results are posted.

Brian

 

[ForkWest]

Non-resident, never applied in Montana before, still looking at next years schedule, if I do put in, yes it would be for the deer/elk combo.

Haven't dug deep enough yet, can you apply just for a point in MT?

How did you do when you had the tag?

 

[kilowatt]

Three years ago only a buck and no elk. Even had a cow tag for certain areas there in that location, cmae back in Jan.05 and no snow then and the elk had left the private lands where the tags were good and went back to NF.

Brian

 

[deerhuntr4885]

I have three bonus points in MT. I am a non-resident and I put in for the deer/elk combo. I called DOW a couple weeks ago and asked them about the odds with the BP. They told me that with two points I had (I think) a 76% chance to draw last year. They said I should have about a 97% chance this year. I think that was the exact odds. It is posted here in a MT thread. Some people are just luckier then others.

GOD, I hate those people!

Mike Henne

 

[kilowatt]

Mike,
If you DON'T DRAW this coming year 2008 let us know. Good luck.

Brian

 

[deerhuntr4885]

Oh, I'm sure I'll be on here whining about it! I forgot one other thing they told me on the phone. She said that there was a strange twist in the results. She said that those with four points actually had a smaller success (I think she said 93%).

Mike Henne

 

[completesportsman]

I feel very fortunate, I have only applied to MT in 06 & 07, each year for the big game combo, I bought the bonus point each year and drew each year.
We had a party of 5, I wonder if your odds are better with party apps, and with max number of applicants in your party?? I have talked to lots of non-res hunters and when they apply with the max number in a party they always draw, if they don't have a full party lots of times they don't draw.

 

[ForkWest]

Party application shouldn't have any affect on the draw success. Party's are put in as a single applicant, with points averaged.