How is the moisture.

[Utah400Elk]

I think I am close to the points for a unit 9 archery bull tag this year (16 NR points). Can anybody from AZ tell me how the moisture has been so far this year? Thanks for any help.

 

[AZ8]

Terrible. We've had one good storm in early November, but nothing much since. A few little storms with no appreciable accumulations. Unless the pattern changes, were in for a dry winter. Fortunately, it's winter, and the weather can change fast, but it better do it soon. Our dry, windy season is only 10-12 weeks away!

 

[brian390]

I'm not sure how much snow we've gotten here in Flagstaff this year, but it seems a little below normal. Flagstaff has gotten a few 8" snow storms so far, but not the 1 to 3 footers yet. There is supposed to be a storm coming to Arizona later this week, so things can maybe change.

 

[brian390]

The forecast for Arizona for the rest of the winter is drier and warmer than average. Phoenix is currentley a half inch below average on rainfall. As of right now, not looking too good.

 

[azdogman]

Horrible right now. If this continues I would buy a bonus point. Hate to waste your one tag on a bad year. But it could change.

 

[AZMIGHTYMULIES]

Units 13A and 13B , precipitation was off to a good start up until 12-7-13 . I've recorded 5 storms from 11-21-13 thru 12-7-13 which between those storms put down a significant amount of moisture . Due to Record amounts of moisture from Summer going into Fall and those latest 5 Storms , there will be a lot of New Growth as there already starting to be . Warm Trend is to continue supposedly for the next few weeks . Hopefully this Trend breaks , and we start getting some storms at least twice a Month for the next 6 Months .

 

[AZ4life]

Last 90 days percent of average map through today:

 

[mike111]

If I had a lot of elk points, I would be considering gaining a point this year. There will always be Big Bulls somewhere just not as many with a dry winter!

 

[ktmrider2a]

If you like the "peaks" hunt north of Flagstaff or 5A, 5B things look pretty good.

The sheep in the Yuma region are having a great winter!

Think I'll wait until the last minute to apply this year and we'll see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

 

[huntin50]

I know it's still early, but how was range conditions going into the winter? How bad will antler growth be this year? Any guesses? Thanks.

 

[creed]

I think there is too much concern over moisture. It may have some affect but there are going to be big bulls taken regardless of moisture. A lot has to do with genetics and age class.

 

[azbullhunter]

Disagree. I had a tag in 2002 the big drought year and decent bulls were scarce. Check the score of the White Mountain Apache and San Carlos for that year will convince you. It was thought that big bulls were 40 inches smaller that year.

 

[Codylee1985]

If I were you guys I wouldn't waste your points this year...Tell all of your friends too so my draw odds are better This winter started off ok, but has been horrible since mid December. I live in Parks (20 miles west of Flagstaff) and I have maybe 3" of snow on the North side of my house, which has all come in the past couple days. At least our weather pattern has finally changed, but Mother Nature better kick it into gear or else I fear we are going to burn up this spring/summer...
On a side note we did have a great monsoon and that will make up for a little bit, but time will tell in the end. Either way there are always big bulls, but the biggest thing I've seen is the less moisture there has been the better chance of the decent bulls being busted up.

 

[bonecollector777]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-05-14 AT 02:42AM (MST)[p]Take a look at this article by ORG magazine. Lots of info. Says antler growth will be below average to average. Glad I drew last year!http://orghunt.com/2014-southwest-antler-growth-drought/

 

[Gator]

Water is needed for a bull to reach his max growth for that year, without water he will be smaller in INCHES, It a proven fact, just check the drought years and you will see the results.
Now saying all bulls fit into this theory isn't true, some find a niche in the area and still grow a great set, finding the bull that found enough water and food to grow his big set is key. A very small % of bulls will grow a great set during a drought period.

"I have found if you go the extra mile it's Never crowded".
>[Font][Font color = "green"]Life member of
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[CAelknuts]

>Disagree. I had a tag
>in 2002 the big drought
>year and decent bulls were
>scarce. Check the score
>of the White Mountain Apache
>and San Carlos for that
>year will convince you.
>It was thought that big
>bulls were 40 inches smaller
>that year.

In 2002, I was hunting elk in unit 13 in New Mexico, so very similar to what Arizona was like in terms of drought and moisture. The bull I ended up killing was said to be about 35" bigger the year before by people who were familiar with him. He still scored 386 and is the biggest bull I've ever killed. So, even though I agree that drought years suck, it's a relative thing. You can still kill a big bull in a dry year, just not as big as he might have been.

 

[billythekid]

besides the horn growth. you are now relying on an early and excellent monsoon for a decent rut. there are two major factors of drought IMIO: antler development for those waiting many yrs. who desire to use their long awaited az. elk hunt as their "OIL Trophy Hunt", and the hunt quality (ie. the rut). the rut can be non-existent, sporadic, or occur well past the hunts that your hunt is greatly diminished. i guess a third very important factor is antler density. drought years=lots of busted up bulls. good luck in the draws.

 

[brian390]

With the last storm at the end of February, I think Flagstaff got almost 1.5 inches of rain. Phoenix ended up getting 1 to 2 inches of rain. This should help, but we are still way behind.

 

[Broomer]

Just wanted to bring this up again because now I have an elk tag in unit 8. What is the state of the union with moisture?

 

[mike111]

Overall most of the State has had a dry winter. Currently Flagstaff is at about half of it's average snowfall, but has had a few decent rain storms to help out. We had a fairly wet Fall which may of helped the health of the elk/deer through the winter. It's looking like the antlers may suffer a bit in some units, but there will likely be some great bucks and bulls harvested this Fall!

 

[hank4elk]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-12-14 AT 11:39AM (MST)[p]Very dry around Flag. My GF called yesterday and a wildfire blew up out of the canyon below during a horse ride yesterday. 85 ac so far,they jumped on it quick.
She lives right there in those woods.
The elk I see over there are in pretty good shape regardless of lack of water and apparent green feed.
It was dry winter for most part in AZ & here in NM.
That said another good monsoon year will bring out big racks.
Everyone here said they would all be rag horns it was so dry last year. Turned out some smoker bulls here regardless. Some broken up,but mostly smaller bulls getting butts kicked by big boys.
Talk of El Nino brewing,and hoping for another good monsoon this summer.