How to determine SECOND choice odds in Colorado?

[ThunderBall]

Could someone please explain how to determine the odds of drawing your second choice in Colorado for non-residents? Thanks in advance.

 

[ColoradoOak]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-04-13 AT 09:59PM (MST)[p]Look up the hunt code in the Drawing Summary at the follwing link. It will show how many people, resident and non-resident, drew each hunt 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice. It also tells you how many tags were available and how many 1st choice applicants there were.

http://wildlife.state.co.us/Hunting/BigGame/Statistics/Pages/Statistics.aspx

 

[txhunter58]

Personally I like the "hunt recaps". Just easier for my brain to understand. If unit XYZ has 100 tags availble and 50 1st choice applicants and 100 second choice applicants, your odds would be 50% of drawing the tag as a second choice.

100 - 50 = 50 tags left after first drawing

50 tags remaining divided by 100 applicants = 0.5 = 50% odds of drawing.

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

 

[ColoradoOak]

Yes, the hunt recaps are helpful as well. But they are a bit misleading, because they imply that all of those 2nd choice apps were "in the running" for a tag, when in reality many actually drew their first choice. You can see that when you look at the drawing summaries.

For example, unit 15 archery deer, DE01501A: 145 tags, with 101 1st choice apps and 89 second choice. You would think that nobody drew 3rd choice, but if you look at the draw summary you will see that it was actually drawn as a 4th choice by some.

You really need to use both the hunt recap and the drawing summary to figure out what is going on.

 

[txhunter58]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-05-13 AT 05:49PM (MST)[p]Thanks for the heads up! I have been underestimating my chances on 2nd choices!

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

 

[MichaelJ]

Am I right in assuming that 2nd/3rd/4th choice selections aren't biased towards residents or non residents? IE: If it even reaches 2nd choice, then everyone is treated equally?

Mike
"~Who says deer don't eat Berger's???"

 

[txhunter58]

There is no preferencial treatment of residents vs nonres after the first choice drawing. And points go away, so it is a random draw without preference points.

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

 

[Whiterock]

Thanks for the info. I was wondering that to.

 

[AntlerObsession]

To clarify, if my hunt code indicates a Choice #1 Success of 95%, that means that all of the tags were gone before the 1st choices were gone through, and there is 0% chance to draw on a 2nd Choice?

 

[contender]

That is right all the tags went to the first choice hunters and a few didn't draw on first choice.