Kaibab draw question

[marley]

I am a NR with 18 points. AZ’s draw has me baffled. I am going to put in for an early Kaibab tag this year with my 18 points. Am I guaranteed a tag? I look at epic outdoors draw stats and it shows that in the bonus round some drew with 9 points while the top point holder didn’t draw. How does this work?

Also if they do the bonus round picks first and I put a strip tag as my first choice and a early Kaibab as my 2nd choice, that seems like I would have a zero percent chance at the strip tag if I drew my 2nd choice in the bonus round. My app is already pulled in the bonus round so it has no chance at the random tag round. Is that correct?

 

[Iddogguy]

I’d say the guy with 22 points drew there first choice and this was there second choice. My guess I’m not positive.

 

[Horniac]

You are guaranteed a 12AW early rifle tag with your 18 points in the bonus round unless they drastically reduce the quotas. Last year NR’s were 100% with 13 points according to Gohunt with 300 total tags which is at odds with the Toprut data which shows it took 15 points to guarantee a NR bonus tag.

The Epic odds don‘t differentiate between NR and R applicants as both are in the same draw pool. NR are limited up to (but not guaranteed) 10% of the total tag quota (37 in your chart) but only half of those are awarded in the bonus point round (18) and the rest are allocated to the random draw. So there would be up to 18 NR bonus tags awarded with the balance of the bonus tags (56) going to residents.

Correct on the Strip tag. No chance to draw a random Strip tag as that choice will never see the light of day once you draw your Kaibab tag in the bonus pass...

Either the 22 point applicant drew their 1st choice as Iddogguy guessed or his credit card was declined. Must have been what happened to the 25 point applicant who wasn’t awarded a tag on his first choice last year.

Horniac

 

[marley]

Thanks Horniac that makes a lot more sense. Looks like I'll be hunting the Kaibab this year. It's a lot of points to spend for the early hunt but I'll never catch the late hunts or strip so I might as well go have fun with a chance at a good buck.

 

[huntazido]

Thanks Horniac that makes a lot more sense. Looks like I'll be hunting the Kaibab this year. It's a lot of points to spend for the early hunt but I'll never catch the late hunts or strip so I might as well go have fun with a chance at a good buck.

I've hunted both the early and the Late and the biggest buck I've ever seen in my almost 60-year-old life was on the early hunt. No other deer has even come close to this buck. I prefer the late hunt only because I like hunting down in the low country, but I will never bad mouth the early hunt. I hope you get drawn and have a great hunt. Post up a story and some pics when all done. Good Luck!

 

[oilcan]

You are guaranteed a 12AW early rifle tag with your 18 points in the bonus round unless they drastically reduce the quotas. Last year NR’s were 100% with 13 points according to Gohunt with 300 total tags which is at odds with the Toprut data which shows it took 15 points to guarantee a NR bonus tag.

The Epic odds don‘t differentiate between NR and R applicants as both are in the same draw pool. NR are limited up to (but not guaranteed) 10% of the total tag quota (37 in your chart) but only half of those are awarded in the bonus point round (18) and the rest are allocated to the random draw. So there would be up to 18 NR bonus tags awarded with the balance of the bonus tags (56) going to residents.

Correct on the Strip tag. No chance to draw a random Strip tag as that choice will never see the light of day once you draw your Kaibab tag in the bonus pass...

Either the 22 point applicant drew their 1st choice as Iddogguy guessed or his credit card was declined. Must have been what happened to the 25 point applicant who wasn’t awarded a tag on his first choice last year.

Horniac

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Horniac do you have one of those bottom charts for the 12AW late Hunt.

 

[Horniac]

Here you go Oilcan…

 

[oilcan]

Here you go Oilcan…

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Thank you I appreciate that.
I need those max point guys to stop putting in for the Late hunt and stick with the strip.

 

[Zim]

Wasn’t long ago I drew three straight years. Now it’s a feeding frenzy. Gotta love social media.

Time to focus on a low demand unit and keep mouth shut.

 

[LIK2HNT]

Thank you I appreciate that.
I need those max point guys to stop putting in for the Late hunt and stick with the strip.

I think it’s a major trickle down effect. Majority of max points guys will never draw a strip tag. They finally are realizing that and starting applying for late Kiabab. Making that tag point creep really jump. Then the late Kiabab guys with high points don’t want to wait 20 years and apply for early. Then early to archery. Heck, it will probably take 11 points to draw the archery this year.

 

[3darcher2]

Either the 22 point applicant drew their 1st choice as Iddogguy guessed or his credit card was declined. Must have been what happened to the 25 point applicant who wasn’t awarded a tag on his first choice last year.


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Is it possible that the high point holders applied with one or two other low pointers trying to pull them through and didn't have enough to get drawn? If they applied with a couple of guys with 2 or 3 points they wouldn't have made it in the bonus, right?

 

[AZNATIVE98]

Is it possible that the high point holders applied with one or two other low pointers trying to pull them through and didn't have enough to get drawn? If they applied with a couple of guys with 2 or 3 points they wouldn't have made it in the bonus, right?

If a 25-point holder put in with a group the points would be reflected in the draw report as the point average.