Montana application question?

[Craig]

I drew a non resident deer / elk combo license and I am going to apply for a Antelope tag and a special elk permit. I have a question about the bonus points. Am I reading the application right if I put down that I want the optional bonus point for the antelope and for the elk permit it's only $20 or is it $20 for each. Any thought .

thanks

 

[fletch]

$20 for each application Is the way I read it. $20 for deer, $20 for antelope etc

 

[Bambistew]

The $20 covers the entire aplication not per species, weather you put in for one or three species. As long as you send in the money for the tag you will get the "point" if you check the box.

 

[berto]

bambistew, you should post what i like to call "the realities of the bonus point system" on THIS thread. i'm sure you know the post i'm talking about. it's good info and the honest truth about how the drawing odds work when bonus points get involved.

craig and fletch, the bonus point system is a money maker for the F & G, especially on non-res apps. bonus pts do not give the hunter much better chance at drawing in their entire lifetime...hopefully bambistew will post his $0.02 here to save you 2000 of yours!

but if you still want to, go ahead and pay your $20 for the bonus point. rest assured i'll think of you this summer when i launch my crummy little john boat from one of several brand new boat ramps/campgrounds on the local reservoirs that were paid for with YOUR (and proportionally few of my) license dollars. not that this isn't good use of the license dollars, but it was YOUR money and YOU'RE not going to benefit much by spending it on a bonus point!

 

[Bambistew]

This is what I posted in the sheep goat and moose room... but applies to elk and deer draws as well. The fish and game got us all by the balls and could care less as long as we keep sending in out money.

All special draws in MT are Lottery... The points you accumulate just put your name in the pot as many times as you have points.
For example lets say that a certain unit has a history of 1200 applicants for 5 tags, before the point system. So you had a 5/1200 or 0.416% chance of drawing one of those tags.

Now lets looks at it since the points were added. Lets assume the same number of people and permits... and we will assume that 600 of them have 3 points, 300 have 2 points, 200 have 1 point and 100 have none. In the draw everyone gets thier name in the drawing for the number of points they have plus their current aplication. Now if you do the math with their point system you get 600x4 + 300x3 + 200x2 + 100x1 =3800 aplicants in the draw... They will still only draw 5 tags but now there is 3800 to chose from, so for those same five tags your odds are like this 5/3800 x #points

Points----ODDS
4---------0.526%
3---------0.394%
2---------0.263%
1---------0.132%

Or how about this one 5 years from now, still 5 tags and 1200 aplicants, 400 with 8 points, 300 with 7 points, 200 with 6, 100 with 5, 100 with 4 and 100 with 1. With out a point system your odds were still 5/1200 or 0.416% and now with them. 400x9+ 300x8+ 200x7+ 100x6 + 100x5 + 100x2 = 8700 5/8700 x # points

9points----0.51% chace and so on...

So you forked out over $200 bucks for points and didn't increase your chance to draw!

As you can see having max points is far from being a sure thing or that it will even impove your draw odds... Its a bogus system and the only thing it does is make the Fish and game money... The more points you get the more you stay up with the draw odds before the point system when into effect. The only thing the point system did is make it harder for people that don't have points to get a tag but, its still possible. Put in for a primo unit and hope for the best, dump your deer tag and go for the sheep, moose or goat. IMO no deer is worth the chance to hunt one of the "big three"

Good luck in the draws, we all need it!

 

[berto]

thanks bambistew.

your info hits the nail on the head!

 

[kilowatt]

I have made this same statement for the last 3 years, don't fall for the point system in MT it is not going to work in your favor only more money in the F&G pockets.
Have yet to pay into the "points system" in any state but I might lean that way in Nevada starting next year, still undecided.

Brian

 

[txhunter58]

I was always good in math but not in statistics. However, it seems to me that bonus points ARE worth it when the odds of drawing are higher and NOT worth it when the odds of drawing are low to begin with. In other words, I believe that they are worth it for the general nonresident combo deer/elk license. For that drawing, you generally have about twice as many people put in for the drawing as there are tags.

For ease of figuring sake, let's say they allot about 10,000 nonreisdent combo tags (I know the actual figure is higher). And lets say that 20,000 people put in for it. Now lets reduce those numbers even more to make it simpler by dividing both by 1000. Now we have 1 tag available and 2 applicants. I think the chance to draw would be the same for each example.

Now if both people have 0 points they have an equal chance of being drawn (a 50% chance). However if 1 of them has 0 points and the other one has 1 bonus point, that gives the guy with 0 points 1 bean in the pot and the other guy 2 beans in the pot. Therefore the guy with 0 points has a 33% chance of being drawn and the guy with 1 bonus point a 67% chance of being drawn.

So in that instance, having 1 bonus point increased your odds fomr 50% to 67%. I would say that it is worth the $20.

However, if as stated above, the odds are long to begin with, then the bonus point money is pretty much wasted.

As I said, I never was good at statistics, so if someone out there can prove me wrong, have at it. Otherwise, I would recommend you apply for a bonus point for the general combo tag.

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

 

[mtmuley]

If the points system of Montana's draw system doesn't add up for you, apply somewhere else. Do all the math you want. If you don't draw , you don't draw. I live and work here and I sometimes don't get the tags I want. And don't complain about the tag fees either. I live here in poverty to enjoy $16.00 elk tags. mtmuley

 

[txhunter58]

I would bet there is a 98% chance you would rather we not apply at all. I can understand that point of view. Hope you get your tag this year. I have had the privaledge of hunting your great state twice and there is a 73% chance I will do so in the future.

On the other hand, whether or not people are wasting $20 on a bonus point is a valid question. Like it or not, math is the only way to answer that question.

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

 

[Craig]

For the non resident combination tags and the non resident Antelope tags I think It's worth buying the bonus point because there are a lot of tags. I don't realy think it's worth buying the bonus pionts for sheep, moose,Goat if they even sell them for those animals because there are so few tags odds are so bad from the start.

 

[MTBullhunter]

The problem with your calculations is that you're comparing the chances of drawing WITHOUT a bonus point system to the chances of drawing WITH a bonus point system. And your statistics hold true for this comparison - the bonus point system MT uses does not increase your chances vs. the old system. However, since MT does not give you the option of two different drawings (one with bonus points, one without), your comparison isn't relevant. You have to look at the only system they do use now - the one with bonus points. Thus, by your own calculations, you can see that someone with 4 bonus points has a 4 times greater chance of drawing than someone that has 1 point:

Points----ODDS
4---------0.526%
3---------0.394%
2---------0.263%
1---------0.132%


So, buying bonus points DOES increase your odds - it just doesn't increase them a lot.

 

[mtmuley]

txhunter58, Not to single you out, but I don't care if you outastaters apply for Montana tags or not. You still have to HUNT just like me. Only I have the advantage of being here 365. What ticks me off is the complaining about the number of non-resident tags, and the cost of said tags. Wanna hunt here? Pay the price or come on up and live where an elk tag is peanuts. Just like the wages. I complain about the economics of my state, but I would have to be in a pine box to ever leave here. mtmuley

 

[txhunter58]

mtmuley: I would probably feel the same as you if I were in your shoes. However, I didn't see anyone in this post whine about the nonreisdent numbers or the price of a tag. We were just wondering if the extra $20 was worth it for a bonus point. Don't they use the bonus point system for residents too in the supplemental drawings or is that only for nonresidents? And aren't nonresidents limited to 10% of really restricted draw tags?

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

 

[Bambistew]

No one was complaining about the tag prices or the lack of tags given out just that the point system sucks. What the fish and game did was make you have to put in for the point just to keep your odds of drawing a tag about the same if they didn't have the point system at all. Most every other state made the point system so that if you get the points your chances of drawing actually go up, ulike MT where getting the points keeps your chance of drawing virtually the same as before!

The elk and deer tags are a little diffrent from the big three because they give out more tags, but the point system is still a money sucker! I've drawn three years in a row with no points, I really doubt that there is twice as many people put in for half as many tags. My guess is that about 15000-16000 people put in for the 13000 tags... so with no points you have better than a 60% of drawing, and close to 100% with a point, but still not a sure thing.

 

[mtmuley]

Somehow, I got off course. Sorry. Residents also have the option of bonus points. It probably won't come as a surprise it is 2.00 for a resident not 20.00. On my elk, deer and antelope ap, the 2.00 covers all species. I understand how it may look like a bonus point is a waste of money, but if your name is in the drawing additional times rather than one, even if the increase in percentage of drawing were small wouldn't it be worth it? Considering the cost of non-resident tags 20.00 is pretty insignificant. Again I apologize for my outburst. mtmuley

 

[txhunter58]

No worries MT

Bambi, you weren't far off! I checked and the number of nonresident applicants for the big game combo this year was
14, 897. No wonder you have been picked 3 years running!

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

 

[MTBullhunter]

txhunter58,

Where did you get that number from? I'd be curious to look at those types of statistics ( I'm a math geek.)

 

[txhunter58]

Don't know if they have the numbers posted anywhere. I just sent an email and asked them. I suspect that may be down from the numbers before the latest price increase, but I didn't ask them that.

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)