ismith,
It would help to know what hunt you are looking at to run the numbers. They way it works here is that 78% of licences for any particular hunt goes to residents, 12% to Non-residents who have hired an outfitter and 10% goes to non-resident who have NOT hired an outfitter. So, suppose you had a hunt that had 100 tags available. 78 of those go to residents, 12 to NR w/ outfitter and 10 to NR w/out outfitter. If 200 residents applied, 50 NR w/ outfitter and only 10 NR w/out outfitter applied then yes, the NR w/out outfitter would have a better chance than both of the other groups. Like I said, depends on the hunt and how many people applied. Is it possible, yes, how likely, I don't know. Hope this helps.
Jeff
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, weapon in one hand, calls in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming "WOO HOO what a ride!"