DonVathome
Very Active Member
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Elk max point tags
I cut and pasted this from my thread on bowsite so if it jumps around and answers question not here that is why.
Please read through and do not just dismiss it, I am fairly confident this is going to occur and occur often in the near future. Bottom line good units are going to become preference point hunts for NR, because only NR with max points will draw. Not every time but often.
Others have pointed this out and it has got me thinking. NR & res are all in the draw together. Res draw more and thus, on average, have less points for elk. It would seem to me that NR are going to begin to start drawing the max points tags.
A good example is 7m, res draw odds are around 25%, so res will draw often. NR will not, if 20% of tags go to max point holders, most likely they will all be draw my NR. However NR can only get 10% of tags. This might mean NR without max points are going to have no tags to draw and thus 0 odds.
My question is 2 fold, first do you agree NR will begin to draw most max points tags, and second, if this occurs, NR without max points will have very very few tags to try for, thus making odds even worse?
This could be eliminated if the AZ F&G take the 20% off the top and have a seperate drawing for max points holders and NR are limited to only 10% of those tag.
For example unit 'X' has 100 tags (thus up to 10 can go to NR) 20 tags for to max pnt holders, only 2 of those can go to NR (10% of 20) thus leaving NR without max points to try for up to 8 tags (10 - 2 = 8).
Bottom line is NR will have the most points, so they will a lot of max pnts tags, and likely reach the NR 10% quota BEFORE the max pnts drawing is done, thus, each time this happens NR without max points have NO shot at a tag.
I know this is not going to happen every time but if you really think about it and analyiz odds it is going to happen A LOT.
Bottom line is half the apps are NR yet we only get 10% of the tags, simple math will tell you we are gaining points way faster ad thus dominating the top point tier and this drawing as many of those tags as possible, therby making odds at drawing without max pnts slim to none.
ALl you guys are doing is restating what I said and already know, no one is actually answering my question, or even thinking about it seriously, if you did you would realize if I am right NR are not going to be pulling good tags anymore until they have 10 or more points, and there is a good chance by the time they have 10 it will take 15.
This could become a huge waste of $$$$ each year for NR who are not aware of this and thinking they might actually get a tag.
When max pnts tags went to 20% this really kicked this effect into high gear.
Bottom line, after carefull study of the draw process I believe in good units NR without max pnts have no shot at a tag, this effect has NOT been seen yet since the 20% max pnts tag just went up from 10% (a huge difference in this scenario) and one year we got the blue light special at tags and drew a ton.
Again to put it plainly, NR have more points then res, this gap was narrowed by the blue light special but it is still the case and the NR with max pnts will obviously increase and beat the res in the future (1/2 the apps going to 1/10 the tags) so NR will be at the top of the point pool. SO obviously we will be pulling as many max pnts tags as we can, thus reaching our 10% cap before NR the max pnts pool drawing is done, thus giving all other NR apps ZERO chance at a tag.
I am not asking for sympathy at all, I am just curious if my theory is correct, because if it is a lot of guys who think there $100 is buying them a chance with very few points might not apply if they understood this.
I have never drawn a tag in AZ, applied 6 times but for tough hunts, only have 2 points so I have not expected to draw a tag. If I am right I am going to rethink my app strategy and many others should too.
Bottom line is 7m is looking a lot better since most guys avoid it.
I am willing to bet if I am right almost no one applying realizes it. I might be the first person to realize NR without max points have little to no chance at tags in better units.
I will continue to apply and build points (have too) I know AZ is worth it but I am always amazed at how few guys know just how bad NR odds got after CC apps. They still think they will draw every 5-7 years.
Again I am not complaining just pointing out a possible draw scenario that has a huge NR effect no one is aware of (if it is true).
I cut and pasted this from my thread on bowsite so if it jumps around and answers question not here that is why.
Please read through and do not just dismiss it, I am fairly confident this is going to occur and occur often in the near future. Bottom line good units are going to become preference point hunts for NR, because only NR with max points will draw. Not every time but often.
Others have pointed this out and it has got me thinking. NR & res are all in the draw together. Res draw more and thus, on average, have less points for elk. It would seem to me that NR are going to begin to start drawing the max points tags.
A good example is 7m, res draw odds are around 25%, so res will draw often. NR will not, if 20% of tags go to max point holders, most likely they will all be draw my NR. However NR can only get 10% of tags. This might mean NR without max points are going to have no tags to draw and thus 0 odds.
My question is 2 fold, first do you agree NR will begin to draw most max points tags, and second, if this occurs, NR without max points will have very very few tags to try for, thus making odds even worse?
This could be eliminated if the AZ F&G take the 20% off the top and have a seperate drawing for max points holders and NR are limited to only 10% of those tag.
For example unit 'X' has 100 tags (thus up to 10 can go to NR) 20 tags for to max pnt holders, only 2 of those can go to NR (10% of 20) thus leaving NR without max points to try for up to 8 tags (10 - 2 = 8).
Bottom line is NR will have the most points, so they will a lot of max pnts tags, and likely reach the NR 10% quota BEFORE the max pnts drawing is done, thus, each time this happens NR without max points have NO shot at a tag.
I know this is not going to happen every time but if you really think about it and analyiz odds it is going to happen A LOT.
Bottom line is half the apps are NR yet we only get 10% of the tags, simple math will tell you we are gaining points way faster ad thus dominating the top point tier and this drawing as many of those tags as possible, therby making odds at drawing without max pnts slim to none.
ALl you guys are doing is restating what I said and already know, no one is actually answering my question, or even thinking about it seriously, if you did you would realize if I am right NR are not going to be pulling good tags anymore until they have 10 or more points, and there is a good chance by the time they have 10 it will take 15.
This could become a huge waste of $$$$ each year for NR who are not aware of this and thinking they might actually get a tag.
When max pnts tags went to 20% this really kicked this effect into high gear.
Bottom line, after carefull study of the draw process I believe in good units NR without max pnts have no shot at a tag, this effect has NOT been seen yet since the 20% max pnts tag just went up from 10% (a huge difference in this scenario) and one year we got the blue light special at tags and drew a ton.
Again to put it plainly, NR have more points then res, this gap was narrowed by the blue light special but it is still the case and the NR with max pnts will obviously increase and beat the res in the future (1/2 the apps going to 1/10 the tags) so NR will be at the top of the point pool. SO obviously we will be pulling as many max pnts tags as we can, thus reaching our 10% cap before NR the max pnts pool drawing is done, thus giving all other NR apps ZERO chance at a tag.
I am not asking for sympathy at all, I am just curious if my theory is correct, because if it is a lot of guys who think there $100 is buying them a chance with very few points might not apply if they understood this.
I have never drawn a tag in AZ, applied 6 times but for tough hunts, only have 2 points so I have not expected to draw a tag. If I am right I am going to rethink my app strategy and many others should too.
Bottom line is 7m is looking a lot better since most guys avoid it.
I am willing to bet if I am right almost no one applying realizes it. I might be the first person to realize NR without max points have little to no chance at tags in better units.
I will continue to apply and build points (have too) I know AZ is worth it but I am always amazed at how few guys know just how bad NR odds got after CC apps. They still think they will draw every 5-7 years.
Again I am not complaining just pointing out a possible draw scenario that has a huge NR effect no one is aware of (if it is true).