Odds of hunting

BeDawg · Dec 21, 2014

What are my odds of hunting this year.

I put in for a deer tag with odds of 1/26, elk are 1/434, Moose are odds 1/1112. Throw in Utah turkey for 1/4. What are my odds of hunting something this year?

These numbers are completely hypothetical. I am preparing for the fall and would like to know the algorithm for calculating personal odds of hunting. Thank you for your help.

elk8272 · Dec 21, 2014

To calculate the "overall" odds of hunting, just switch the odds to decimals and add them together. Deer = .038, elk = .002, moose = .0008 and turkey = .250.
.038+.002+.0008+.250=0.2908 or a 29% chance of hunting (1 in 3.44 odds)

Hope this helps.

grizzly · Dec 21, 2014

LAST EDITED ON Dec-22-14 AT 00:10AM (MST)[p].

HuntinFool · Dec 21, 2014

I'm too tired to do the math right now, but I think the math above is incorrect. Buy an OTC elk tag.

elkassassin · Dec 21, 2014

Ya!

You're going Huntin!

May not be Huntin Big Game though!

[font color="redhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMsueOnu0kY

xitnet · Dec 22, 2014

You have a better chance of hunting than me hunting the Henry Mountains with 10 preference points. At 61 years old, it may be time to put in for a lesser area.

elk8272 · Dec 22, 2014

Sorry, let me clarify...I shouldn't have used the term odds. I actually calculated the "probability" or chance of hunting.

Most states, including Utah, give you the probability ratio or percentage in their statistics, not the odds. For example, if there are 100 applicants for a hunt and 25 tags available, the chance of you being drawn is 25% or 1 in 4. (The actual odds are calculated as 25 tags to 75 no tags which is simplified to 1:3)

Also remember, in Utah's statistics they don't calculate the true probability, as they don't include the bonus points in their equation.

hunter77 · Dec 22, 2014

Since each incidence is independent of one another you need to calculate the odds with an interpolation formula. I calculated this for you and your odds to hunt next year are 28.65%

SlinginLead · Dec 22, 2014

In short.....your odds are slim.
Good Luck.

BeDawg · Dec 22, 2014

Thank you Hunter 77 but I have no-idea of the "interpolation formula". I did a quick Google search of it and actually looked at a lot of different algorithms. Could you or someone else please enlighten me as to how you got those numbers? I am not an engineer nor am I a mathematician. Some people have claimed I am an armchair Biologist.

sticksender · Dec 22, 2014

No way to know what your draw probability will be next year. Unless you know how many tags will be offered for each hunt next year and how many guys will apply for each of those hunts next year, and the point status of each applicant who will apply for those hunts next year.

Either way, the exact "odds" number doesn't really matter. You can glance at last years draw data and conclude that if next year's draw is even vaguely similar, you best make other plans if you want to count on hunting.

BeDawg · Dec 22, 2014

I very well understand Sticksender. Just want to know the probability of the year before.

sticksender · Dec 23, 2014

Understood. What I'm saying is there's no sense beating your head against the wall trying to calculate exact draw odds. The effort required would be huge (or impossible due to lack of data). It depends on your particular bonus points and the bonus points of every applicant who applied. Further complicating the algorithm is the "sequence of draw", which limits each applicant to one Limited tag OR one OIL tag. So the individual draws for each species are NOT independent events. If you MUST know, perhaps make friends with a college-level professor in Probability & Statistics...lol.

Basically what matters is that if you want to hunt, apply for at least one high-probability draw. That keeps it simple.

ForkWest · Dec 23, 2014

LAST EDITED ON Dec-23-14 AT 10:47AM (MST)[p]BeDawg, it's not too tough to figure and the correct way to figure is to calculate your chance of not drawing any tag at all, then take the inverse as your odds of drawing at least one of the tags.

For example you have a 25/26 (or 96.15%) chance of NOT drawing a deer tag, a 433/434 (or 99.77%) chance of NO elk tag, etc,etc,

Multiply all .9615 x .9977 x .9991 x .75 = .7188 or a 71.88% chance of not drawing any tag, with the inverse (100% minus 71.88%) being 28.12% chance of drawing at least one tag.

ForkWest · Dec 23, 2014

elk8272, got you close in this scenario, but it's an incorrect way to calculate what you're looking for.

For example, say you had much better odds at all of the tags: deer 1:2, elk 1:3, moose 1:10, turkey 3:4.

Figuring probability as elk8272 did would give you .5 + .3 + .1 + .75 or a %165 chance of drawing at least one tag. Otherwise known as a guarantee and in reality you're not guaranteed a tag at all.

Figuring the correct way, .5 x .7 x .9 x .25 = .078 or 7.8% chance of no tag, or 92.2% chance of drawing at least one tag.

92.2% is correct and very different than %165.

Not trying to be the annoying math geek, but if you're going to figure, might as well know the correct way to figure what you're looking for.

eelgrass · Dec 23, 2014

LAST EDITED ON Dec-23-14 AT 10:04AM (MST)[p]Technically, since the original question was "What are my odds of hunting this year."......

You also have to calculate the odds of BeDawg drawing a tag but not actually being able to hunt for some reason or another. Statistically, it is less than 100%. There is also a statistical chance that BeDawg will miss the deadline for applying, for whatever reason.

Eel

It's written in the good Book that we'll never be asked to take more than we can. Sounds like a good plan, so bring it on!

huntin50 · Dec 23, 2014

My odds are about 100% hunting next year if I'm alive. I can always buy an over the counter tag some where or go with a friend or family member who has a tag. So could about everyone else. Enjoy the outdoors and go hunting, fishing, or hiking. Life can be short. Merry Christmas.

BeDawg · Dec 23, 2014

Forkwest, that will give me something to think about in my offtime. I know that anything could happen and I could likely have to resort to an OTC tag or leftover which I very well would and would be grateful for also! Just glad I have somewhat of an semi-accurate picture now.

Hunting is more a privilege nowadays and not a right.

elk8272 · Dec 23, 2014

Thanks for the correction, ForkWest

elkassassin · Dec 23, 2014

OTC Tags?

Leftovers?

Them are Perty Slim these days!

Good Luck!

Somebody always gets Lucky!

It's never me though!

>Forkwest, that will give me something
>to think about in my
>offtime. I know that anything
>could happen and I could
>likely have to resort to
>an OTC tag or leftover
>which I very well would
>and would be grateful for
>also! Just glad I have
>somewhat of an semi-accurate picture
>now.
>
>Hunting is more a privilege nowadays
>and not a right.

[font color="redhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMsueOnu0kY