javihammer
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Some posts have been speculating about the impacts of online applications versus paper applications in Arizona. I found the question interesting so I looked into it and did some back of the envelope research (envelope = excel). I pulled my numbers from the latest Arizona Hunt Statistics book (2009 latest reporting year). I tried to be as accurate as possible about the process for each year but I am sure I may have a detail or two wrong. I used rifle stats for each species since they seem to be representative of overall tag demand and provide the largest data pools for analysis. I was really surprised how application numbers and behavior are directly related to how easy the drawing process is for a given year.
Background Info on the Arizona Drawing process
2001 and before ? Paper applications only.
2002 thru 2004 ? Applications are online. The system was so easy that non-resident outfitters wanted a bigger cut of the tag pool and sued AZGFD to have the non-resident cap cancelled. Arizona coughed up some extra tags for some lucky non-residents during this time. The year 2004 represented a perfect storm from an application perspective, the economy was strong and the online application process was as easy as ever. A drunk chimpanzee with a credit card could have submitted an application in 2004.
2005 ? The online process was suspended. Tags were paper again while the USO lawsuit was resolved. The future of the 10% non-resident cap was still unclear and smart non-residents took advantage of the opportunity to get a crack at the entire tag pool before the opportunity went away.
2006 ? The 10% cap is reinstated and applications are online again. The new online system was generally considered much less user friendly than the old one.
2007 ? Started out as online draw but changed to paper in the middle of the application window due to some system problems. The early birds got to submit online and the late arrivers had to mail-in a paper application with a check. This was a combo online/paper application year so it is tough to draw any conclusions about it.
2008-2010 ? Paper applications only.
Antelope
There were more applicants per permit in 2004 than any other year. There were 73 guys for every permit issued that year. In 2009 there were 33 guys for every permit (17,480 applicants). The number of first choice applicants was up approximately 25% during the years that the online draw was available. 2007 was a record year at 28,042 for first choice applicants, imagine how many applications would have been submitted that year if the online draw would have been active during the entire application submission window.
Sheep
Sheep applications were also at their peak in 2004. There were 18,927 applications that that year for a total of 225 people for EACH permit. The number of applicants per permit in 2008 and 2009 was about 95. I guess a whole lot more people choose to hunt sheep when they can finance their tag on a credit card. Despite the huge increase in applicants, sheep odds are horrible under all circumstances so this one probably makes a small blip on the radar.
Elk
There were over 5 people that applied for each permit during the years the full online draw was available (2002, 2003, 2004, 2006). There were more applicants in 2004 than any other year with 76,542. In 2008 and 2009 there were about 3 people/applicants per permit. Once again, there were many more applicants when the tags were online and could be financed on credit card. Online applications probably do more harm to elk odds than any other species. At least your odds are already remote with sheep and antelope, online applications can really take the edge off your elk chances.
Deer
There were over 90,000 deer applicants in 2004. That meant there were 2.46 people per deer permit (and this is somewhat misrepresentative since the number of people applying for units north of the canyon skew the demand curve somewhat ? in other words, the picture was much uglier on the Kaibab and Strip and significantly better down south). In 2009 there were only about 64,000 people that applied for tags (about 1.47 people per permit).
Conclusions/Notes
?The online applications seem to have negatively impacted permit/person ratios for antelope by over 25%, elk by over 50%, deer by 50% and sheep by over 125%. These are SIGNIFICANT numbers in my opinion and could add many years to waiting times for tags. I realize ratios can be impacted by yearly permit fluctuations but I think ratios are decent rough benchmarks to measure tag availability.
?The numbers I used do not factor in the people that applied for bonus points. If the process were to revert back to online apps with backend credit cards we would see a FLOOD of applications since the number of people purchasing bonus points for sheep and antelope while waiting for the online process to come back are kind of under the radar (they are not counted as a 1st choice applicants as far as I can tell).
?Sidenote ? I also noticed the number of hunt days were generally much higher during the years that the draw was paper based. There are many things that can impact hunter days however I find it interesting that those that were drawn during paper application years spent more days total trying to fill their tag. It seems there may be a relationship between those willing to fill out a paper app and those willing to hunt a little longer.
Most of us should pray the paper process lasts as long as possible. We all know online apps will be back someday because they are cheaper for AZGFD to process. For most of us the paper application years will be looked at as the ?good old days?. Lets hope the full fees will be required up front when the online process is brought back, hopefully it will be a long time from now.
Cheers,
Ryan the Draw Geek
Background Info on the Arizona Drawing process
2001 and before ? Paper applications only.
2002 thru 2004 ? Applications are online. The system was so easy that non-resident outfitters wanted a bigger cut of the tag pool and sued AZGFD to have the non-resident cap cancelled. Arizona coughed up some extra tags for some lucky non-residents during this time. The year 2004 represented a perfect storm from an application perspective, the economy was strong and the online application process was as easy as ever. A drunk chimpanzee with a credit card could have submitted an application in 2004.
2005 ? The online process was suspended. Tags were paper again while the USO lawsuit was resolved. The future of the 10% non-resident cap was still unclear and smart non-residents took advantage of the opportunity to get a crack at the entire tag pool before the opportunity went away.
2006 ? The 10% cap is reinstated and applications are online again. The new online system was generally considered much less user friendly than the old one.
2007 ? Started out as online draw but changed to paper in the middle of the application window due to some system problems. The early birds got to submit online and the late arrivers had to mail-in a paper application with a check. This was a combo online/paper application year so it is tough to draw any conclusions about it.
2008-2010 ? Paper applications only.
Antelope
There were more applicants per permit in 2004 than any other year. There were 73 guys for every permit issued that year. In 2009 there were 33 guys for every permit (17,480 applicants). The number of first choice applicants was up approximately 25% during the years that the online draw was available. 2007 was a record year at 28,042 for first choice applicants, imagine how many applications would have been submitted that year if the online draw would have been active during the entire application submission window.
Sheep
Sheep applications were also at their peak in 2004. There were 18,927 applications that that year for a total of 225 people for EACH permit. The number of applicants per permit in 2008 and 2009 was about 95. I guess a whole lot more people choose to hunt sheep when they can finance their tag on a credit card. Despite the huge increase in applicants, sheep odds are horrible under all circumstances so this one probably makes a small blip on the radar.
Elk
There were over 5 people that applied for each permit during the years the full online draw was available (2002, 2003, 2004, 2006). There were more applicants in 2004 than any other year with 76,542. In 2008 and 2009 there were about 3 people/applicants per permit. Once again, there were many more applicants when the tags were online and could be financed on credit card. Online applications probably do more harm to elk odds than any other species. At least your odds are already remote with sheep and antelope, online applications can really take the edge off your elk chances.
Deer
There were over 90,000 deer applicants in 2004. That meant there were 2.46 people per deer permit (and this is somewhat misrepresentative since the number of people applying for units north of the canyon skew the demand curve somewhat ? in other words, the picture was much uglier on the Kaibab and Strip and significantly better down south). In 2009 there were only about 64,000 people that applied for tags (about 1.47 people per permit).
Conclusions/Notes
?The online applications seem to have negatively impacted permit/person ratios for antelope by over 25%, elk by over 50%, deer by 50% and sheep by over 125%. These are SIGNIFICANT numbers in my opinion and could add many years to waiting times for tags. I realize ratios can be impacted by yearly permit fluctuations but I think ratios are decent rough benchmarks to measure tag availability.
?The numbers I used do not factor in the people that applied for bonus points. If the process were to revert back to online apps with backend credit cards we would see a FLOOD of applications since the number of people purchasing bonus points for sheep and antelope while waiting for the online process to come back are kind of under the radar (they are not counted as a 1st choice applicants as far as I can tell).
?Sidenote ? I also noticed the number of hunt days were generally much higher during the years that the draw was paper based. There are many things that can impact hunter days however I find it interesting that those that were drawn during paper application years spent more days total trying to fill their tag. It seems there may be a relationship between those willing to fill out a paper app and those willing to hunt a little longer.
Most of us should pray the paper process lasts as long as possible. We all know online apps will be back someday because they are cheaper for AZGFD to process. For most of us the paper application years will be looked at as the ?good old days?. Lets hope the full fees will be required up front when the online process is brought back, hopefully it will be a long time from now.
Cheers,
Ryan the Draw Geek
