Point Creep
- Thread starter Zim
- Start date
Just a guess, but it could be that (with extremely limited exceptions) if you don't use your points obtaining a tag, you don't hunt that species that year. In other words - no general tags available after the draw, no drawing on 2nd or 3rd choice without using BP's, etc.
So, since most people want to hunt, they are not willing to sit out year after year to build points. Obviously, there are exceptions, especially among non-residents, but I would guess the vast majority of applicants have no where near maximum BP's for any given species.
Another factor could be that it is a bonus point vs. a preference point system. You're just getting another chance in the draw for each BP, not a guarantee that the person with most points will always get a tag over someone with less. Again, there may be exceptions to that statement as far as non-residents go.
So, since most people want to hunt, they are not willing to sit out year after year to build points. Obviously, there are exceptions, especially among non-residents, but I would guess the vast majority of applicants have no where near maximum BP's for any given species.
Another factor could be that it is a bonus point vs. a preference point system. You're just getting another chance in the draw for each BP, not a guarantee that the person with most points will always get a tag over someone with less. Again, there may be exceptions to that statement as far as non-residents go.
Zim
Very Active Member
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- 2,311
I'm just amazed every year I look and the points for our unit are straight stagnant. I don't expect that will change this year even with online apps, because the newbies won't be in our 10 point pool.
Heck in some states I've had some of my unit picks creep 3 points in one year after NR tag thefts occurred.
Heck in some states I've had some of my unit picks creep 3 points in one year after NR tag thefts occurred.
K
krp
Guest
vanderb79 has it right on the difference in State draws, in Colorado you can draw your second choice while building pp points, here you don't build points while drawing, those drawing go back to the start.
This means that those willing to get to 9 points + have an agenda and are willing to wait for it, that's a small number of the total applicants. There isn't a Large fluctuation in that number year to year, so it keeps things relatively stable year to year.
I used an example a month ago on another site to answer a question and it applies here. Without doing all the exact math again here's the general point. Around 3300 applicants had 9+ points last year, subtracting those drawn and adding the incoming 8 pointers that didn't and would be 9 this year, there was an increase of around 80 compared to the same total previous. I slight increase from the original online app period and we will see a slight decrease in a few years from the paper app and bad economy years, probably in 8 years a slight increase from the new online app... these numbers are close every year, you can't just invent a 12 bper from a 3 bper.
This means there are more that want any tag, some that want a bull tag that takes 8 bps and fewer that want a specific tag and willing to wait. Each is important to themselves.
Today I helped my brother and dad fill out the online app, I always do their apps. They only want a cow tag, we stratagized on units, draw odds and then decide to put in separate apps to increase the odds of drawing one tag... even cow tags are important.
myself, I want an archery rut tag that takes 12 bps and I'm willing to wait, I have 7.
As I said and debated here 3 years ago, there is no point creep and it's proven by math... talking elk, not sheep or lope.
Kent
This means that those willing to get to 9 points + have an agenda and are willing to wait for it, that's a small number of the total applicants. There isn't a Large fluctuation in that number year to year, so it keeps things relatively stable year to year.
I used an example a month ago on another site to answer a question and it applies here. Without doing all the exact math again here's the general point. Around 3300 applicants had 9+ points last year, subtracting those drawn and adding the incoming 8 pointers that didn't and would be 9 this year, there was an increase of around 80 compared to the same total previous. I slight increase from the original online app period and we will see a slight decrease in a few years from the paper app and bad economy years, probably in 8 years a slight increase from the new online app... these numbers are close every year, you can't just invent a 12 bper from a 3 bper.
This means there are more that want any tag, some that want a bull tag that takes 8 bps and fewer that want a specific tag and willing to wait. Each is important to themselves.
Today I helped my brother and dad fill out the online app, I always do their apps. They only want a cow tag, we stratagized on units, draw odds and then decide to put in separate apps to increase the odds of drawing one tag... even cow tags are important.
myself, I want an archery rut tag that takes 12 bps and I'm willing to wait, I have 7.
As I said and debated here 3 years ago, there is no point creep and it's proven by math... talking elk, not sheep or lope.
Kent
Another reason we don't have creep like so many other states is the fact we give the top 20% point holders first priority. Much like a preference point. This way the guys at the top are sure to draw even if they have bad luck. Thus, reducing the guys at the top of pile so others below can move up.
IMO AZ's draw point process is the best. You have a random chance every year and eventually a guarantee if your will to wait. Best of both worlds.
Good Luck to all that apply
IMO AZ's draw point process is the best. You have a random chance every year and eventually a guarantee if your will to wait. Best of both worlds.
Good Luck to all that apply
The reason there is very little point creep is the multitude of units that hold a higher expectation of a great hunt. Most states have 2-3 units and with all the applicants applying for those, the points creep up. In AZ you have 1,3a,8,9,10,and 27 to spread all those guys out. The 5's and 6's tend to get the guys that don't want to wait or already drew and want to get back out there.
LAST EDITED ON Feb-05-12 AT 09:56AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-05-12 AT 09:56?AM (MST)
>Another reason we don't have creep
>like so many other states
>is the fact we give
>the top 20% point holders
>first priority. Much like
>a preference point. This
>way the guys at the
>top are sure to draw
>even if they have bad
>luck. Thus, reducing the
>guys at the top of
>pile so others below can
>move up.
>
>IMO AZ's draw point process is
>the best. You have
>a random chance every year
>and eventually a guarantee if
>your will to wait.
>Best of both worlds.
>
>Good Luck to all that apply
>
For us non residents who want to hunt Elk in 1,9,3AC,10,27,23N etc it's a preference point system. Unless we get enough points to get in the 20% pool we are shut out.
There is no random chance for a tag in these units so unless you have max points or one shy, there's no need to apply for anything other than a point.
I'm sitting on 10 points but I'm probably 15 years away from getting a tag. If I ever draw AZ I'm done.
Nevada has the best system by a long ways. It's a true Bonus point system. You can draw the first year with one point and anythime after that. Sure the odds get better with more points(squared)but you can still draw any year.
>Another reason we don't have creep
>like so many other states
>is the fact we give
>the top 20% point holders
>first priority. Much like
>a preference point. This
>way the guys at the
>top are sure to draw
>even if they have bad
>luck. Thus, reducing the
>guys at the top of
>pile so others below can
>move up.
>
>IMO AZ's draw point process is
>the best. You have
>a random chance every year
>and eventually a guarantee if
>your will to wait.
>Best of both worlds.
>
>Good Luck to all that apply
>
For us non residents who want to hunt Elk in 1,9,3AC,10,27,23N etc it's a preference point system. Unless we get enough points to get in the 20% pool we are shut out.
There is no random chance for a tag in these units so unless you have max points or one shy, there's no need to apply for anything other than a point.
I'm sitting on 10 points but I'm probably 15 years away from getting a tag. If I ever draw AZ I'm done.
Nevada has the best system by a long ways. It's a true Bonus point system. You can draw the first year with one point and anythime after that. Sure the odds get better with more points(squared)but you can still draw any year.
DonVathome
Very Active Member
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- 1,720
Real reason is the number of applicants has steadly dropped, quit a bit. Less apps = no point creep. With new cc apps you will now see point creep for sure.
bragabit
Active Member
- Messages
- 811
Look at unit 10 Archery if you think there is no point creep. I have been a point away for 3 years now, and still will not be guaranteed tag.
2007-11 points 100% draw odds
2008-11 points 100%
2009-11 points 12%
2010-11 points 11%
2011-11 points 0%
In 2007 I had 9 points 7%. 2008 10 points 12%. 2009 11 points 12%. 2010 12 points 13%. 2011 13 points 11%.
In 2008-2011 one point ahead of me was 100%. I just don't seem to be able to catch up.
2007-11 points 100% draw odds
2008-11 points 100%
2009-11 points 12%
2010-11 points 11%
2011-11 points 0%
In 2007 I had 9 points 7%. 2008 10 points 12%. 2009 11 points 12%. 2010 12 points 13%. 2011 13 points 11%.
In 2008-2011 one point ahead of me was 100%. I just don't seem to be able to catch up.
ColoradoOak
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,920
I think WapitiBob is spot on.
>In 2008-2011 one point ahead of
>me was 100%. I
>just don't seem to be
>able to catch up.
Maybe the extra 50 tags issued this year will help.
>In 2008-2011 one point ahead of
>me was 100%. I
>just don't seem to be
>able to catch up.
Maybe the extra 50 tags issued this year will help.
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