Preference Point holder counts??
- Thread starter Katoom
- Start date
https://cpw.state.co.us/thingstodo/Pages/Statistics.aspx
Scroll down to Species, then click on Year under Draw Recap Reports. The first page will break it down for you.
Scroll down to Species, then click on Year under Draw Recap Reports. The first page will break it down for you.
Katoom
Active Member
- Messages
- 544
>https://cpw.state.co.us/thingstodo/Pages/Statistics.aspx
>
>Scroll down to Species, then click
>on Year under Draw Recap
>Reports. The first page
>will break it down for
>you.
Ok.. so if I add the NR preference point applicants on the last page to the NR tag applicants on the first page, would that likely give the best approximation of the total of NR at each level? Then subtract out the succesful tag recipients? The numbers that I then get are much worse than I ever thought. Looks like NR point creep for elk below the 28 point level (heading into this year) is becoming more or less insurmountable for a tip top tag. Below that there are hundreds of point holders at each break, over a thousand at each level below 23. Seems most of us in that zone are either gonna be buried with them or will have to grudgingly drop down. Look out below! If so, point creep on mid-tier (at least as measured by demand) hunts is soon going to explode.
Can someone please tell me if I went wrong somewhere in my
assessment??
>
>Scroll down to Species, then click
>on Year under Draw Recap
>Reports. The first page
>will break it down for
>you.
Ok.. so if I add the NR preference point applicants on the last page to the NR tag applicants on the first page, would that likely give the best approximation of the total of NR at each level? Then subtract out the succesful tag recipients? The numbers that I then get are much worse than I ever thought. Looks like NR point creep for elk below the 28 point level (heading into this year) is becoming more or less insurmountable for a tip top tag. Below that there are hundreds of point holders at each break, over a thousand at each level below 23. Seems most of us in that zone are either gonna be buried with them or will have to grudgingly drop down. Look out below! If so, point creep on mid-tier (at least as measured by demand) hunts is soon going to explode.
Can someone please tell me if I went wrong somewhere in my
assessment??
txhunter58
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 8,554
That doesn't take into account the people that just applied for a point this year, and there are many that do. So your odds are at least some better than those numbers would indicate.
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
nripepi
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,112
The last page are those that applied for a point, so I think you did it correctly. It is unsustainable for sure, the only solution is get rid of OTC hunts and reduce license sales significantly and manage for an older age class of elk. I am not advocating for that, maybe just let people figure it out as they pile up points.
Katoom
Active Member
- Messages
- 544
LAST EDITED ON May-06-19 AT 07:49PM (MST)[p]>That doesn't take into account the
>people that just applied for
>a point this year, and
>there are many that do.
> So your odds are
>at least some better than
>those numbers would indicate.
>
>txhunter58
>
>venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore
>I am)
Txhunter, I hear ya. It would SEEM the odds are better than just the sheer numbers of point holders, but I am not so sure. Yes, in any given year, not everyone with points will apply, but I think for top tags, that is strategic. Here's a made up example....
Say there are 100 people with 25 points, but the tag took 27 points to draw last year. Many of those 25 point holders won't apply because they think, "why bother, I am 2 years away, I'll just wait two years and then apply" But they are not even close. There are point holders at 26 that sat on the fence and now all of a sudden will jump in, thinking, "maybe I have a chance". Nope. Same for the other guys at 27 who didn't draw the year before. More likely, all the guys at 28 will duke it out for the random tag. Dreaded point creep. We all know that. 29 the year after. Then 30, then 31......etc. Based on my just completed counts of those recap pages the hidden point creep potential is massive. It can really just increment 1 or 2 each year, given the relatively few people at the tippy top. And of those at that number, their "random chances" in that cohort are pretty good. But just wait. Soon, those relatively few at the tippy top will be gone, either hunted... or GONE, if you get me. Then the real fun begins. Point creep will go up by 1 per year essentially to the limit of the typical hunter lifespan. And most people, even at the current drawn out number will never, ever draw the tag. People currently below that drawn out number will all be long gone, most likely including me. So I am not 5 years out. Not 10 years out. I am like 1000 years behind!
>people that just applied for
>a point this year, and
>there are many that do.
> So your odds are
>at least some better than
>those numbers would indicate.
>
>txhunter58
>
>venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore
>I am)
Txhunter, I hear ya. It would SEEM the odds are better than just the sheer numbers of point holders, but I am not so sure. Yes, in any given year, not everyone with points will apply, but I think for top tags, that is strategic. Here's a made up example....
Say there are 100 people with 25 points, but the tag took 27 points to draw last year. Many of those 25 point holders won't apply because they think, "why bother, I am 2 years away, I'll just wait two years and then apply" But they are not even close. There are point holders at 26 that sat on the fence and now all of a sudden will jump in, thinking, "maybe I have a chance". Nope. Same for the other guys at 27 who didn't draw the year before. More likely, all the guys at 28 will duke it out for the random tag. Dreaded point creep. We all know that. 29 the year after. Then 30, then 31......etc. Based on my just completed counts of those recap pages the hidden point creep potential is massive. It can really just increment 1 or 2 each year, given the relatively few people at the tippy top. And of those at that number, their "random chances" in that cohort are pretty good. But just wait. Soon, those relatively few at the tippy top will be gone, either hunted... or GONE, if you get me. Then the real fun begins. Point creep will go up by 1 per year essentially to the limit of the typical hunter lifespan. And most people, even at the current drawn out number will never, ever draw the tag. People currently below that drawn out number will all be long gone, most likely including me. So I am not 5 years out. Not 10 years out. I am like 1000 years behind!
txhunter58
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 8,554
Very good and valid analysis. But there are also many other factors. The fact that not everyone is putting in for the same hunt/tag, and that people change their mind from year to year on what they are going to do.
But in the final analysis, pretty bleak odds for top tier units. Which means that guys who have "almost" top tier points, but still have hundreds of guys above them, had better do some sole searching and decide to hunt somewhere else.
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
But in the final analysis, pretty bleak odds for top tier units. Which means that guys who have "almost" top tier points, but still have hundreds of guys above them, had better do some sole searching and decide to hunt somewhere else.
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
Colorado Hunting Guides & Outfitters
Rocky Mountain Ranches
Hunt some of the finest ranches in N.W. Colorado. Superb elk, mule deer, and antelope hunting.
Frazier Outfitting
Great Colorado elk hunting. Hunt the backcountry of unit 76. More than a hunt, it's an adventure!
CJ Outfitters
Hunt Colorado's premier trophy units, 2, 10 and 201 for trophy elk, deer and antelope.
Allout Guiding & Outfitting
Offering high quality mule deer, elk, bear and cougar hunts in Colorado units 40 and 61.
Ivory & Antler Outfitters
Hunt trophy elk, mule deer, moose, antelope, bear, cougar and turkey on both private land and BLM.
Urge 2 Hunt
We offer both DIY and guided hunts on large ranches all over Colorado for archery, muzzleloader and rifle hunts.
Hunters Domain
Colorado landowner tags for mule deer, elk and antelope. Tags for other states also available.
Flat Tops Elk Hunting
For the Do-It-Yourself hunters, an amazing cabin in GMU 12 for your groups elk or deer hunt.