LAST EDITED ON May-06-19 AT 07:49PM (MST)[p]>That doesn't take into account the
>people that just applied for
>a point this year, and
>there are many that do.
> So your odds are
>at least some better than
>those numbers would indicate.
>
>txhunter58
>
>venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore
>I am)
Txhunter, I hear ya. It would SEEM the odds are better than just the sheer numbers of point holders, but I am not so sure. Yes, in any given year, not everyone with points will apply, but I think for top tags, that is strategic. Here's a made up example....
Say there are 100 people with 25 points, but the tag took 27 points to draw last year. Many of those 25 point holders won't apply because they think, "why bother, I am 2 years away, I'll just wait two years and then apply" But they are not even close. There are point holders at 26 that sat on the fence and now all of a sudden will jump in, thinking, "maybe I have a chance". Nope. Same for the other guys at 27 who didn't draw the year before. More likely, all the guys at 28 will duke it out for the random tag. Dreaded point creep. We all know that. 29 the year after. Then 30, then 31......etc. Based on my just completed counts of those recap pages the hidden point creep potential is massive. It can really just increment 1 or 2 each year, given the relatively few people at the tippy top. And of those at that number, their "random chances" in that cohort are pretty good. But just wait. Soon, those relatively few at the tippy top will be gone, either hunted... or GONE, if you get me. Then the real fun begins. Point creep will go up by 1 per year essentially to the limit of the typical hunter lifespan. And most people, even at the current drawn out number will never, ever draw the tag. People currently below that drawn out number will all be long gone, most likely including me. So I am not 5 years out. Not 10 years out. I am like 1000 years behind!