Been applying as a NR for years for sheep in Idaho. No surpirse with no tag. This year Im starting to think I might give up on the sheep in Idaho and switching to goats instead. Realize the odds are better but still a long shot. Doing some research now on the possibilty of it. Anybody else thinking this way? Ive been on both goat and sheep hunts that my dad has drawn in our home state of MT, and both are equally awesome. Who knows what Ill end up putting in, if I can convince enough people that this is a good idea to apply for goats, I might reverse my thinking and put in for sheep??
switching from sheep to goat??
- Thread starter beech18
- Start date
DirtyTough
Active Member
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- 445
Desert bighorn or Cali Bighorn?
I was looking at the odds and some of the sheep tags aren't to bad. About the same as goat. I'm going for a goat tag personally.
I was looking at the odds and some of the sheep tags aren't to bad. About the same as goat. I'm going for a goat tag personally.
AIROHUNTER
Active Member
- Messages
- 169
I drew a non resident goat my first try. You just never know...
My favorite hunts are because they were with friends and family not just because "I got one".
My favorite hunts are because they were with friends and family not just because "I got one".
>Ive been trying for Cali's in
>past years. Long shot
>either way but think Im
>going for the goat to
>just change things up.
Quick math for NRs draw percentages for 2012:
Rocky's - 5 tags with 908 NR applicants - 0.55%
Cali's - 3 tags with 414 NR applicants - 0.725%
Mtn Goats - 5 tags with 158 NR applicants - 3.16%
>past years. Long shot
>either way but think Im
>going for the goat to
>just change things up.
Quick math for NRs draw percentages for 2012:
Rocky's - 5 tags with 908 NR applicants - 0.55%
Cali's - 3 tags with 414 NR applicants - 0.725%
Mtn Goats - 5 tags with 158 NR applicants - 3.16%
Zeke
Long Time Member
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- 10,604
How many points do you have for sheep in Idaho? LMAO
It doesn't matter how much switching you do since the odds say you'll never draw either in Idaho. There's just no getting ahead without points. But that's "fair" I guess.
You can apply for 30+ years for either species and NEVER have a tag since the demand have out-stripped the supply by 100's X.
Zeke
It doesn't matter how much switching you do since the odds say you'll never draw either in Idaho. There's just no getting ahead without points. But that's "fair" I guess.
You can apply for 30+ years for either species and NEVER have a tag since the demand have out-stripped the supply by 100's X.
Zeke
S
Smiley
Guest
At least if our children want to put in they will have an opportunity to draw . The same chance as any other person that is important . People who are so determined to have a points system seem to be very selfish and not care about opportunity for others .
Zeke
Long Time Member
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Way to sit tall on your high-horse there Smiley.
Interesting how you can judge me by an internet post.
The word "fair" keeps getting thrown around by a bunch of butt-hurt school-girls. There isn't a system in any State which is fair or unfair.... it's just another way of doing business. Any drawing, of any kind is just a way of getting tags into the hand of sportsman. There are just some which "I" like better.
Carry on,
Zeke
Interesting how you can judge me by an internet post.
The word "fair" keeps getting thrown around by a bunch of butt-hurt school-girls. There isn't a system in any State which is fair or unfair.... it's just another way of doing business. Any drawing, of any kind is just a way of getting tags into the hand of sportsman. There are just some which "I" like better.
Carry on,
Zeke
>How many points do you have
>for sheep in Idaho? LMAO
>
>
>It doesn't matter how much switching
>you do since the odds
>say you'll never draw either
>in Idaho. There's just no
>getting ahead without points. But
>that's "fair" I guess.
>>Zeke
It does matter if he switches. Statistically, he should draw Mountain Goat once in 32 years, given this year's numbers. He has a 50% chance that this will occur in the first 16 years, a 25% chance it will occur in the first 8 years and 3.16% chance it could occur this year.
Preference points wouldn't help you "get ahead" either. If you were so dramatic as to have no one else EVER apply for sheep, it would take 200 years for everyone in the pool to draw sheep. We'll send your tag to your GGGGrandson.
>for sheep in Idaho? LMAO
>
>
>It doesn't matter how much switching
>you do since the odds
>say you'll never draw either
>in Idaho. There's just no
>getting ahead without points. But
>that's "fair" I guess.
>>Zeke
It does matter if he switches. Statistically, he should draw Mountain Goat once in 32 years, given this year's numbers. He has a 50% chance that this will occur in the first 16 years, a 25% chance it will occur in the first 8 years and 3.16% chance it could occur this year.
Preference points wouldn't help you "get ahead" either. If you were so dramatic as to have no one else EVER apply for sheep, it would take 200 years for everyone in the pool to draw sheep. We'll send your tag to your GGGGrandson.
Zeke
Long Time Member
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- 10,604
> We'll send your
>tag to your GGGGrandson.
LOL. You're so right.
It's that way regardless of the tag distribution method since mega-tons more guys wanna hunt than the supply can bare.
Statistically 32 years?????? really?????.... no way!
Remember with a random draw you start at ZEROOOOOOOOOOOOO every year. Read my lips, your statistics start OVER every year...... at zero.
Best to ALL of you in the draws (me too, but then again I'm selfish. lol).
Zeke
>tag to your GGGGrandson.
LOL. You're so right.
It's that way regardless of the tag distribution method since mega-tons more guys wanna hunt than the supply can bare.
Statistically 32 years?????? really?????.... no way!
Remember with a random draw you start at ZEROOOOOOOOOOOOO every year. Read my lips, your statistics start OVER every year...... at zero.
Best to ALL of you in the draws (me too, but then again I'm selfish. lol).
Zeke
>> We'll send your
>>tag to your GGGGrandson.
>
>LOL. You're so right.
>
>It's that way regardless of the
>tag distribution method since mega-tons
>more guys wanna hunt than
>the supply can bare.
>
>Statistically 32 years?????? really?????.... no way!
>
>
>Remember with a random draw you
>start at ZEROOOOOOOOOOOOO every year.
>Read my lips, your statistics
>start OVER every year...... at
>zero.
>
>Best to ALL of you in
>the draws (me too, but
>then again I'm selfish. lol).
>
>
>Zeke
You've obviously never taken a Stats class. I suggest you check out a basic Stats book from the library, READ IT, and then we'll continue our discussion.
>>tag to your GGGGrandson.
>
>LOL. You're so right.
>
>It's that way regardless of the
>tag distribution method since mega-tons
>more guys wanna hunt than
>the supply can bare.
>
>Statistically 32 years?????? really?????.... no way!
>
>
>Remember with a random draw you
>start at ZEROOOOOOOOOOOOO every year.
>Read my lips, your statistics
>start OVER every year...... at
>zero.
>
>Best to ALL of you in
>the draws (me too, but
>then again I'm selfish. lol).
>
>
>Zeke
You've obviously never taken a Stats class. I suggest you check out a basic Stats book from the library, READ IT, and then we'll continue our discussion.
Zeke
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 10,604
Oh boy! How did I know that as soon as I disagreed with you you'd throw out the "obviously you've never taken a stats class" card?
I know a bit about stats and this I can tell you lil bud, YOU START OVER EVERY YEAR REGARDLESS OF WHAT YOU THINK YOU KNOW.
Will he draw "statistically"? Perhaps he will but the stats also will tell you that "statistically" he'll probably not when you factor in the increase in applicants and dwindling suppy!
Remember, it gets worse every year and he'll start over at zero every year.
I know a bit about stats and this I can tell you lil bud, YOU START OVER EVERY YEAR REGARDLESS OF WHAT YOU THINK YOU KNOW.
Will he draw "statistically"? Perhaps he will but the stats also will tell you that "statistically" he'll probably not when you factor in the increase in applicants and dwindling suppy!
Remember, it gets worse every year and he'll start over at zero every year.
F
fowladdict
Guest
Statistically speaking you would draw within 32 years if only those same 158 people are putting in for the tag. But assuming the odds never change over the next 32 years, a person still only has a 3.16% chance of drawing year in, year out. A person's odds of drawing do not go up over the years just because of the number of times putting into the draw. If the draw odds never change for the next 32 years you would have 5,056 people putting in for 160 tags which would be 3.16%. Statistically speaking however...there is still a chance! 
Zeke
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 10,604
>Statistically speaking you would draw within
>32 years if only those
>same 158 people are putting
>in for the tag. But
>assuming the odds never change
>over the next 32 years,
>a person still only has
>a 3.16% chance of drawing
>year in, year out. A
>person's odds of drawing
>do not go up over
>the years just because of
>the number of times putting
>into the draw. If
>the draw odds never change
>for the next 32 years
>you would have 5,056 people
>putting in for 160 tags
>which would be 3.16%.
>Statistically speaking however...there is still
>a chance!
+1
It's 3.16% each and every year. The odds never go up or down unless the applicants or tags go up or down. It would be impossible to predict what will happen in the next 6-8-10 years.....except that the random odd will get worse.....maybe. haha
Again, good luck to us all in the draws regardless of the model to which the State ascribes.
Zeke
>32 years if only those
>same 158 people are putting
>in for the tag. But
>assuming the odds never change
>over the next 32 years,
>a person still only has
>a 3.16% chance of drawing
>year in, year out. A
>person's odds of drawing
>do not go up over
>the years just because of
>the number of times putting
>into the draw. If
>the draw odds never change
>for the next 32 years
>you would have 5,056 people
>putting in for 160 tags
>which would be 3.16%.
>Statistically speaking however...there is still
>a chance!
+1
It's 3.16% each and every year. The odds never go up or down unless the applicants or tags go up or down. It would be impossible to predict what will happen in the next 6-8-10 years.....except that the random odd will get worse.....maybe. haha
Again, good luck to us all in the draws regardless of the model to which the State ascribes.
Zeke
S
Smiley
Guest
LAST EDITED ON Mar-20-13 AT 00:26AM (MST)[p]Zeke I was not just singling you out . I may have not sugar coated what I was trying to say but it just makes sense for all to be on the same playing field as that seems to be fair and allows all to play by the same rules . When you add points the rules are not the same and it hurts those that have to start the game later on .
I think maybe having a longer wait once you have drawn may help some . Maybe even having a waiting period for any controlled hunt once you have drawn a tag of any species would help .
Zeke can you honestly say that it is fair that those that are up and coming will will not mathematically have a chance to draw a tag because they cannot put in but others can put in year after year and probably have a good shot to draw.
What would you or anyone else call it when one wants to change the rules to increase ones chances of winning the game and lessen somon elses chances of winning
I think maybe having a longer wait once you have drawn may help some . Maybe even having a waiting period for any controlled hunt once you have drawn a tag of any species would help .
Zeke can you honestly say that it is fair that those that are up and coming will will not mathematically have a chance to draw a tag because they cannot put in but others can put in year after year and probably have a good shot to draw.
What would you or anyone else call it when one wants to change the rules to increase ones chances of winning the game and lessen somon elses chances of winning
Zeke
Long Time Member
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- 10,604
I appreciate the different views and comments.
I like luck..... but I don't like to rely on luck alone to dictate my hunting.
We keep throwing around the word "fair".
Since when have we decided that having an advantage was a bad, or an unfair thing? This is the USA!
We all seek advantages in just about everything we do. It's called "competitive advantage". Those who show up, work and play the best and the most should have a comtetitive advantage, I think.
As for the young kid, for whom we both have affection and concern, there is a little thing called attrition. We old guys die off, draw or drop out and the younger applicants can then work their way to the top. My kids have done it and so can others IF THEY APPLY EVERY SINGLE YEAR. I guess it's all about the amount of dedication to the sport that the applicant has.
Also, I'm totally against a true preference point system where only the top point holders can get a tag. There needs to be a portion of the draw which is random for everyone who applies to have a chance..... while working their way to an advantage through diligently applying.
Oh, and if Idaho doesn't want any kind of a bonus system, so be it. I undestand that I'm only one voice!
I suspect out paradigms are not so different.
Respectfully,
Zeke
I like luck..... but I don't like to rely on luck alone to dictate my hunting.
We keep throwing around the word "fair".
Since when have we decided that having an advantage was a bad, or an unfair thing? This is the USA!
We all seek advantages in just about everything we do. It's called "competitive advantage". Those who show up, work and play the best and the most should have a comtetitive advantage, I think.
As for the young kid, for whom we both have affection and concern, there is a little thing called attrition. We old guys die off, draw or drop out and the younger applicants can then work their way to the top. My kids have done it and so can others IF THEY APPLY EVERY SINGLE YEAR. I guess it's all about the amount of dedication to the sport that the applicant has.
Also, I'm totally against a true preference point system where only the top point holders can get a tag. There needs to be a portion of the draw which is random for everyone who applies to have a chance..... while working their way to an advantage through diligently applying.
Oh, and if Idaho doesn't want any kind of a bonus system, so be it. I undestand that I'm only one voice!
I suspect out paradigms are not so different.
Respectfully,
Zeke
S
Smiley
Guest
There is a big difference in being bigger faster stronger and more talented than having rules bent toward one over another . No matter the time spent and talent gained and earned America has always liked a winner that plays by the rules . But when those that work hard and put everything into that which they seek and then have rules bent or do the bending themselves they are rightfully taken down " LANCE ARMSTRONG " ring a bell .
And with the old guys going by way of attrition that just does not work either the lines keep getting longer and longer and sooner or later it will be the VERY FEW and VERY wealthy that can only play and it will be by their rules.
On a side note I have mixed feelings with youth hunts it is nice to get them interested but they are being given an opportunity with everyone's resources hence "unfair " .
Zeke you are not alone there are many that feel that it is unfair to not have a point system . Many are just plain frustrated .
I am frustrated I do not put in every year but most and in 20 years have NEVER drawn a controlled tag I would not change the system either. I guess I just like punishment Ha.
And with the old guys going by way of attrition that just does not work either the lines keep getting longer and longer and sooner or later it will be the VERY FEW and VERY wealthy that can only play and it will be by their rules.
On a side note I have mixed feelings with youth hunts it is nice to get them interested but they are being given an opportunity with everyone's resources hence "unfair " .
Zeke you are not alone there are many that feel that it is unfair
to not have a point system . Many are just plain frustrated .I am frustrated I do not put in every year but most and in 20 years have NEVER drawn a controlled tag I would not change the system either. I guess I just like punishment Ha.
BPKHunter
Very Active Member
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- 1,744
Your love of a hybrid system is just proof that any kind of BP system only works for moderate to low demand hunts and not for the dream hunts we all want.
The attrition you speak of doesn't really work in hunts with odd's of a few percent or less.
Like most, you want to have your cake and eat it too.
I'm fine giving you your BP system, but you will really have to pay for it for any true demand hunt, especially for a trophy species like Sheep or goats.
The paradigm shift I think that may happen is more and more residents of the key western states will stop putting in for other states and hunt their own, and more guys from the east, mid-west, south, and Kalifornia will spend MORE and MORE for even a chance, and it will continue to trend toward a rich man's sport. So if you don't live in Idaho, Montana, Colorado, Wyoming, Ariz, NM, Nevada, OR, or WA then I hope your income is pretty high.
I feel blessed that we have pretty decent draw odd's now in Idaho as a resident for a species like Sheep or Goats if that's what you choose to focus on.
The attrition you speak of doesn't really work in hunts with odd's of a few percent or less.
Like most, you want to have your cake and eat it too.
I'm fine giving you your BP system, but you will really have to pay for it for any true demand hunt, especially for a trophy species like Sheep or goats.
The paradigm shift I think that may happen is more and more residents of the key western states will stop putting in for other states and hunt their own, and more guys from the east, mid-west, south, and Kalifornia will spend MORE and MORE for even a chance, and it will continue to trend toward a rich man's sport. So if you don't live in Idaho, Montana, Colorado, Wyoming, Ariz, NM, Nevada, OR, or WA then I hope your income is pretty high.
I feel blessed that we have pretty decent draw odd's now in Idaho as a resident for a species like Sheep or Goats if that's what you choose to focus on.
Zeke
Long Time Member
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- 10,604
I understand your point. Like I said, we're not all that different.
I'm not looking to blood-dope to get ahead (poor anlaogy smiley). I just like rules of the game which "rewards" those who have enough desire and drive to apply every year. If other hunters or the State wants something different then so be it. I can live with any rules because neither with or without points has anything to do with "fair".
Tag distribution with or without points is just that: Tag distribution.
Keep up the good work!
Zeke
I'm not looking to blood-dope to get ahead (poor anlaogy smiley). I just like rules of the game which "rewards" those who have enough desire and drive to apply every year. If other hunters or the State wants something different then so be it. I can live with any rules because neither with or without points has anything to do with "fair".
Tag distribution with or without points is just that: Tag distribution.
Keep up the good work!
Zeke
S
Smiley
Guest
Probably my last response here but I stand by my analogy and that a change in the rules that will benefit some and not all is not the way to go . To me what a point system says or would possibly lead to is my grand children never drawing . This is as much their resource as it is ours is how I see it .
I guess keeping tag distribution on an even playing field and not just " fair" lol is what i would prefer and what most that are against any type of points system.
I went 16 years straight putting in and because of personal things I could not put in every year after that. I doubt you will find many that would have more to complain about than myself . Probably some but few ha
I guess keeping tag distribution on an even playing field and not just " fair" lol is what i would prefer and what most that are against any type of points system.
I went 16 years straight putting in and because of personal things I could not put in every year after that. I doubt you will find many that would have more to complain about than myself . Probably some but few ha
Deerlove
Long Time Member
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- 6,024
Zeke I have no problem with not getting pts at least for deer and elk but ID only has a one year waiting period! Far to short. Id want are 15o bucks (huntin license)as much as they can get it. If they had a five or three year wait people might not buy that license. IMO
FemoralArchery
Active Member
- Messages
- 220
>Thanks for the civil banter guys!
>
>Too many threads on here turn
>into petty, name-calling sessions.
>All your ideas are just as
>valid as mine.
>I appreciate hearing all your thoughts
>as I'm sure does the
>OP.
>Zeke
Damm, I was just about to make a "switching from sheep to goats" joke. I guess I'll let it slide this time.
>
>Too many threads on here turn
>into petty, name-calling sessions.
>All your ideas are just as
>valid as mine.
>I appreciate hearing all your thoughts
>as I'm sure does the
>OP.
>Zeke
Damm, I was just about to make a "switching from sheep to goats" joke. I guess I'll let it slide this time.
alaska_bou
Active Member
- Messages
- 161
Hey Smiley,
Since you speak of those who are "selfish," do you realize Idaho is the MOST selfish of all the western states with its NR tag allocation currently giving no more than 10% of the quota and as little as 0% actually going to NR hunters?
Since you speak of those who are "selfish," do you realize Idaho is the MOST selfish of all the western states with its NR tag allocation currently giving no more than 10% of the quota and as little as 0% actually going to NR hunters?
S
Smiley
Guest
So what is your point ? Are you asking a question of me ?
S
Smiley
Guest
So what is your point ? If asking me do I feel the way Idaho handles the NR tags " fair " or the best way I do not think so .
AIROHUNTER
Active Member
- Messages
- 169
I had the option to postpone the hunt due to the trinity ridge fire so I took it. I will be living the dream this year. From what I understand there will be three tags in the unit this year.
My favorite hunts are because they were with friends and family not just because "I got one".
My favorite hunts are because they were with friends and family not just because "I got one".
BPKHunter
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,744
LAST EDITED ON Mar-25-13 AT 09:04AM (MST)[p]I think it's funny that so many NR's complain about the cap, given the great OTC access we have compared to all the other western states.
Part of the reason you don't get some of your tags is because you don't represent much of the applicant pool. In 22 of 41 available LE Buck hunts in 2011, NR's represented less than 10% of the applicant pool. Surprisingly, in 21 of thos 22 LE hunts, you didn't get 10% of the tags.
No wonder you want a guaranteed 10%, you think you deserve better draw odd's for our LE Hunts than us resident's should have.
Part of the reason you don't get some of your tags is because you don't represent much of the applicant pool. In 22 of 41 available LE Buck hunts in 2011, NR's represented less than 10% of the applicant pool. Surprisingly, in 21 of thos 22 LE hunts, you didn't get 10% of the tags.
No wonder you want a guaranteed 10%, you think you deserve better draw odd's for our LE Hunts than us resident's should have.
J
juniper81
Guest
This thread is in regards to sheep and goat you dumb $%)@, no one cares about your OTC wet dream access for deer.
Are you REALLY trying to suggest non residents do not deserve even 10% of the tags and as little as ZERO is actually FAIR??? Your mentality suggests you do not hunt out of state, otherwise you would not have such an ignorant attitude towards "deserving" non residents. You are lying to yourself believing non residents have better overall odds than residents do.
Yeah, its no wonder why so few non resident hunters bother with Idaho..
Are you REALLY trying to suggest non residents do not deserve even 10% of the tags and as little as ZERO is actually FAIR??? Your mentality suggests you do not hunt out of state, otherwise you would not have such an ignorant attitude towards "deserving" non residents. You are lying to yourself believing non residents have better overall odds than residents do.
Yeah, its no wonder why so few non resident hunters bother with Idaho..
LAST EDITED ON Mar-28-13 AT 11:39PM (MST)[p] Your right it is about sheep and goats so why are you still commenting on tag % and odds and whats FAIR? I hope all you guys applying for sheep or goats can draw a tag, even one of you non-res. guys. Good luck.
>This thread is in regards to
>sheep and goat you dumb
>$%)@, no one cares about
>your OTC wet dream access
>for deer.
>
>Are you REALLY trying to suggest
>non residents do not deserve
>even 10% of the tags
>and as little as ZERO
>is actually FAIR??? Your mentality
>suggests you do not hunt
>out of state, otherwise you
>would not have such an
>ignorant attitude towards "deserving" non
>residents. You are lying to
>yourself believing non residents have
>better overall odds than residents
>do.
>
>Yeah, its no wonder why so
>few non resident hunters bother
>with Idaho..
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if zero nonresidents draw the OIL hunt I put in for, it means they had the exact same odds as me (a resident). If that's not "fair," I'm not sure what is?
The only way the nonresidents odds drop is when the 10% cap is reached before the draw is complete.
>sheep and goat you dumb
>$%)@, no one cares about
>your OTC wet dream access
>for deer.
>
>Are you REALLY trying to suggest
>non residents do not deserve
>even 10% of the tags
>and as little as ZERO
>is actually FAIR??? Your mentality
>suggests you do not hunt
>out of state, otherwise you
>would not have such an
>ignorant attitude towards "deserving" non
>residents. You are lying to
>yourself believing non residents have
>better overall odds than residents
>do.
>
>Yeah, its no wonder why so
>few non resident hunters bother
>with Idaho..
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if zero nonresidents draw the OIL hunt I put in for, it means they had the exact same odds as me (a resident). If that's not "fair," I'm not sure what is?
The only way the nonresidents odds drop is when the 10% cap is reached before the draw is complete.
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