UT, CO, WY & AZ Draw Odds Updated

Founder

Founder

Founder Since 1999
Messages
11,473
[font color=darkred size=+1]Updated Draw Odds!!![/font]

I just wanted to post this note letting you all know that our draw odds for Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and Arizona have been updated to reflect 2009 apps. So, you can now dive in and start trying to figure which hunts to apply for in 2010.
Here's the link (also at the top of all pages):
http://huntodds.monstermuleys.com/

PS - Please reply to this post if you would and let me know if the Draws Odds feature here on the site is a benefit to you and if you like it.

Thanks,

Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
 
Founder, Your draw odds feature was of great aid to my hunting partner and i this past year. I think this is a great benefit to your website. Thank You!!

Joey
 
I use it all year long.


Jake H. MM Member since 1999.
458738e374dfcb10.jpg
 
I'm always using it, helps a bunch. On Montana you have all the limited entry draws but not the odd for obtaining the tags in the first place. How about the odds for deer combo, deer/elk combo and elk combo?

Rich
 
LAST EDITED ON Nov-08-09 AT 12:28PM (MST)[p]waiting to see what you have for NM .......

Yes, I use the odds function as well as the direct numbers from the game departments. Is it a feature that you have to pay for?
 
I really appreciate the effort you make to have it here. I would like to see it expanded to some of the whitetail states like Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, So. Dakota, etc.

Find a few midwest advertisers and hire a couple more people. Nothing to it. ;)

Thanks again.
DC
 
from what i understand predicting odds in NM might be like trying to predict odds on powerball?

VJ
49ca8f1a4fbfdf37.jpg
 
>from what i understand predicting odds
>in NM might be like
>trying to predict odds on
>powerball?
>
>VJ
>
49ca8f1a4fbfdf37.jpg



Yes, but I feel better (or worse) depending how they do it.
 
I use it all the time, it's a great tool to have. For 2009, I used it to help me decide what to put in for, and then I drew the tag I wanted.

Nocked N Loaded
 
Brian,
Thanks for the info. I used the data posted; did my pre-scouting; drew my tags/ deer and elk- Killed both; Went home with the most memorable hunt of my life. 340 Colorado Bull and a 150 Mule Deer.
Got to enjoy it with my wife; most likely will take another 5 to 6 years to draw by the Draw odds. Again,,,, Big Help on the info. Keep it up;;;;; MM is BadAss.!!!!!
 
Brian
I use these all the time thanks
any idea when Nevada will be up?
Thanks again for a great service
 
I use it all the time and refer others to it as well.

it is really nice to just give my friends the link rather than explain the many differnces in all the states.

you have saved me a ton time and minutes on my cell phone!

Thanks!
 
Love the ODDS REPORT!! So much more fun to know I'm not drawing anything again this year. I think my wife has been informed too, and can now plan my schedule during hunting season, knowing I have nothing better to do.
 
One thing i really like about them is the pictures. How often do you guys update these or ask for new pictures?


It seems like last time I got a free Mossback DVD in a drawing or something for submitting some pictures.
 
Big,

New pictures are added every year. We will be conducting our success survey again here in a few weeks. We will have more prizes available to those that participate. Right now our prizes consist of a Hoyt bow, Easton Arrows, Kings Clothing, Back Packs and videos from Mossback, Muley Crazy, and Christensen Arms. We are working on adding more items as well. There will be a notice posted inviting anyone that wants to participate to upload their success information.


Fatherofthree,

I endevor to make these odds as accurate as possible. If you have noticed an error in my calculations, please let me know what that is so that I can assess the error and make any changes the are necessary.

Thanks to everyone for the possitive feedback.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 
Look at an easy one just for kicks, pull up the odds for Johnson Mtn Ranch deer in Utah for 09. I chose this as it's fairly simple with only 2 regular tags.

One of the applicants with 4 points drew the bonus point tag so it leaves 5 people left in the drawing with 4,1,1,0,&0. Each get a chance for each point and one for this year. so the total NEW applicant chances are 11 (5,2,2,1,1) if you follow.

so if I'm one of the 2 chance (1 bonus point guys) your numbers say my odds are 40.8%. Simple math tells me that my chances are 2 in 11 for the first of the two remaining tags or 18%.

Suppose I didn't draw this tag (or draw the lowest number as we know how it works). Depending on if the guy with 5 chances or one with one chance drew the first tag, my next chances would be either 2 in 6 or 2 in 10. 33.3% or 20%. thus my best case scenario odds are 33.3% and worse case scenario odds are 20%.
 
Fatherofthree,

You are doing your math correctly, but you are looking at the drawing and the odds for each tag as an individual and separate event. By doing this, it is essentially saying that there was only an opportunity to draw one tag or the other.

You are correct that in the drawing for the first random tag you odds were 18% and that in the drawing for the second random tag you odds were somewhere between 20% and 33.3% (depending on which applicant drew the first tag). However, to be accurate, you need to blend those two events together. That is where the math gets complicated and the statistical calculations take effect.

Simply adding the two events together is not completely accurate either as it only considers the best or worst case scenarios (18%+20%=38% and 18%+33%=51%). However, it does help you understand why your odds presented in the odds database are 40.8% as it is between the two and is considering all possible scenarios. The simulations I run on each unit consider every tag and each applicants accumulated points and blends all of the possible events together to calculate the odds.

I hope that this helps and clears up any confusion.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 
I don't know about your complex calculations, but it certainly seems to me that the posted odds are generally overstating the common sense odds.

In the above example the very best possible conceivable true on the street reality of it ODDS (considering how the draw actually happens) are 33%, but if I'm looking at the site I'm lead to beleive it's 40.8%.

How are my chances 40.8% when the reality is my very best possible scenario is less than that?
 

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