For 3rd season 54: Last year there were 298 apps for first choice and 64 tags. With the additional 40 tags, if 43 less people(people with more than 1 PP) apply compared to last year, then people with just one PP will have a chance... Like i said, im not expecting it at all, but with the 4th season, many people apply for that instead of 3rd giving you a chance (although not very good)... thinking next year with 2 points i would have a decent shot though