Wyoming Pref. Pts. to 2011

HornedToad

HornedToad

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Wyoming Game and Fish will soon post its table of Preference Points (PP) going into the 2011 Draw, but I have obtained an early look. The following information is for Non-Resident Bighorn Sheep.

Listed below are (A) Number of Points, (B) Number of Non-Res. Sportspersons, (C) Predicted Median Year to Draw and (D) Change since 2010 Prediction.

The Median Year can be thought of as the average year in which a sportsperson in a given PP class could expect to draw. Half could expect to draw earlier than the median, while half could expect to draw later. In general, those drawing earlier than the median will be applying in secondary (or less popular) units, while those drawing later will be holding out for the premium (or most popular) units.

(A) (B) (C) (D)

01 968 2045 na
02 657 2043 (-1)
03 600 2041 (-1)
04 549 2039 (-1)
05 489 2037 (0)
06 447 2035 (0)
07 496 2033 (0)
08 563 2031 (-1)
09 545 2028 (0)
10 579 2025 (0)
11 494 2023 (0)
12 181 2019 (0)
13 155 2017 (0)
14 154 2015 (-1)
15 137 2013 (0)
16 32 2012 (-1)

The Predicted Median Year to Draw is based on a model that includes a number of key assumptions, including (a) that the number of permits issued to non-residents in the PP draw remains constant at the current level, and (b) the annual attrition rate in each PP class (those dropping out of the process w/o drawing a permit) trends downward in a pattern consistent with the average of the previous three years. Obviously, if either of these assumptions are off, the predicted median year to draw could change substantially.

The attrition rates assumed in the above model remain significant. For example, of the 494 sportspersons entering the 2011 Draw with 11 PP, the model predicts that 187 will eventualy draw permits, while 307 will eventually drop out. This may appear extreme, but if anything, attrition rates over the past few years have been greater, not lesser, than predicted. For example, the model had predicted that of 549 sportspersons with 10 PP going into the 2010 Draw, 49 would drop out and 500 would proceed to the 2011 Draw, when in fact 54 dropped out, leaving 494. Of course, it may be that attrition rates over the past few years have been abnormally high, given the poor economy. But I expect that an increasing number of applicants, including particularly those who only began applying when the $7 PP went into effect in 2000, realize that they will be too old, and lacking the necessary fitness level to climb high mountains, by the time they would draw. In addition, some begin to understand that it only makes sense to spend $100 annually for years to accumulate PP's, if one assumes that a significant number of competing applicants drop out. If everyone remained in the draw (e.g. attrition rates were 0%), most applicants would not draw until they were well over 100 years old. This fails the commonsense test.

Any model is only as good as the assumptions that go into it. And any number of things could change, including the total number of bighorn permits issued each year, the percentage allocated to non-residents, the rules of the draw process, disease, wolves... and on and on.

Good luck to all in the 2011 Draw.

HT
 
You are the Stats Guru HT!!

Thanks for your time and effort and no doubt knowledge year-in/year-out!

Robb
 
LAST EDITED ON Nov-23-10 AT 06:55AM (MST)[p]Thanks for the info however somthing does no match. According going into 2010 the non residents with 11 pp were 176. Going into 2011 they would have 12pp . You show 181 non residents with 12pp going into 2011. Something is amiss or am I missing something? Ok I figured it out , some with 12pp last year probably did't buy a pp for 2011. Thanks again for your calculations.
 
LAST EDITED ON Nov-23-10 AT 07:58AM (MST)[p]
Yes, I also noted that apparent anomaly, that the number of applicants with 12 PP for 2011 at 181 is greater than the 176 with 11 PP going into 2010. This is the only point class for which there was an increase. All other point classes showed a decrease, as would be expected given the effects of draws and attrition.

I believe your assessment is correct, that the number of those with 12 PP in 2010 who chose not to apply this year exceeded the number with 11 PP lost to attrition. Wyoming does not drop an applicant from its system until two years of applications are missed, so many of those out of the 12 PP class of 2010 who missed only one application remained with 12 PP for 2011, and will be dropped next year if they miss a second consecutive application.

There is another condition to complicate the analysis, and that is the potential transfer of Resident applicants to Non-Resident status should they leave Wyoming for another state. Residents still can accumulate PP's at $7 per year, substantially less than the $100 charged to Non-Residents. While I doubt that many would leave Wyoming for the purpose of gaining the better drawing-odds in the Non-Resident draw (especially true among the high PP classes, principally because of the much higher cost of participation) it could happen, and people do move around.


I meant to cover the subject of the 45 MAX PP holders going into 2010. Of these, only 15 applied, with 9 drawing permits and 6 being unsuccessful. Attrition claimed 4 drop-outs. 22 chose to purchase PP only. With the 9 draws and 4 drops, the number of MAX PP holders going into 2011 now stands at 32.

This points out the difficulty of trying to estimate when a given point class will "burn out". Members of the MAX PP group have been drawing permits for 15 years now, since the PP draw began in 1996, and still, of the original 1421 members of this MAX PP class, 32 hold on. Since there is no maximum number of years one can buy a PP, this could go on indefinatly, at least so long as the PP program remains in place, and there are applicants in the MAX PP pool still drawing breath.

HT
 
HT
I am curious how long it took you to work your magic? At any rate I am with PleaseDear in saying thanks!
I am one of the lucky ones who drew with maximum points 6 years ago, but I am still hoping my son, who has 11 can draw before it is too late for me to go with him.
Thanks again!
 
I was able to draw Area 2 last year,as a nonresident, with 14 points. One less than Max.

I had a Great time and killed a nice Ram. Well worth the wait.

Good luck to all those that will be applying this year.
 
LAST EDITED ON Nov-23-10 AT 08:32AM (MST)[p]little bighorn -

There are 494 sportpersons, including your son, with 11 PP entering the 2011 draw. My model projects that this group will draw most of its permits between the years 2018 and 2027, with 2023 being the median year. There will be a few permits drawn before 2018 and some after 2027, but most will be drawn during that 10 year period.

Of the 494, I project that 257 will drop out over the next 8 years, leaving 237 going into the 2018 draw (I know that that sounds like a high assumed annual attrition rate, but it is actually less than the annual attrition over the past three years). Of the 237 who make it to 2018, 50 will eventually drop out, and 187 will draw permits.

I hope that your son is among the 187 who draw permits. Given his youth, he should not be constrained by years or age. Whether you are able to accompany him may depend upon whether he selects to apply for a secondary unit, thus drawing as soon as 2018 and before 2023, or holds out for a premier unit, drawing after 2023 and possibly as late at 2027.

Regardless, this should be a good motivator to stay healthy and fit so that you can climb and hunt sheep with your son when the opportunity becomes available.

Good luck!

HT
 
HT,
I am definitely hoping for the 2018 draw rather than 2027, because in 2027 I will be 78 years old.
Wow, some of us are headed over the hill!

At any rate it is good motivation to keep in shape. My backpack Dall hunt this year taught me that it is still possible.
Thanks again.
 
Littlebighorn,

You'll be long gone by the time Spence draws! LOL JK
Really though, It will motivate us to stay in great shape if we want to be there when our sons (also daughters in my case) pull the trigger!

HornedToad,

You da man!
I always love to hear from you because it makes sense when I read your posts.
THANKS for doing all the heavy lifting so we can ponder your writings.

I had better... well.... stay in sheep shape too!

Zeke
 
Thanks again. Your model predicts me to draw in 2023, 13 more years - not bad. More importantly in a few years I will be in the max pnts pool, with many others. However having the chance at all the tags vs. 1/4 is a big help in odds.

It was a coincidence I started applying when you could just pay $7 (first year) it was the year I finished college. I would love to be one point ahead of that big cohert but ahh well, better then 1 point behind.

I think WY will drop max pnt tags to 50% and thus lengthen my wait.
 
HT

It sounds like you have an in getting this info early. Have you heard about any changes to the way they allocate the non-res permits? Right now I think it is 75% PP and 25 random. The survey sounded like they were going to go 50/50.
 
That's my question too, with the 50/50 scenario those of us up the ladder a ways will get it kicked out from under us. your chart show me with 13 points drawing in 2017, I'd be 55. if we go to 50/50 I doubt very much I'll have time to draw.

jumping the fees is one thing, but after taking our money all these years and then degrading what we've waited for by changing the rules seems unfair.

Thanks for posting this anyway.
 
Just found it on their website it will remain 75% for PP and 25% for random draw in 2011. Who knows beyond 2011.


Big Game Preference Points. The preference point system is designed
to improve your odds of eventually drawing a license in a hard-to-draw
hunt area. For Full Price Moose, Bighorn Sheep, Elk, Deer and Antelope,
75% of available licenses in each hunt area and license type combination
will be allocated to a ?preference point draw.? Applicants with the highest
preference point totals will receive priority in the preference point draw.
The remaining 25% of available licenses will be allocated to a ?random
draw.? In this manner, everyone who applies has at least some chance of
drawing a license regardless of their preference point total
 
Well that's good, at least they're not rushing into it. when I got the questionnaire I knew right off most people would opt for the 50/50. unless you have at least 6 or 7 points you you better be in grade school or you're far better off with 50/50. I told them I thought it unfair to pull the rug out from under those who had played the longest to accommodate newcomers. I actually expected the change this year.
 
I agree with the last couple posts.
I'm down the ole points ladder quite a ways (2023 or so) but I've always thought it would be a huge disservice to those who have been faithfully applying to make a change in the point system. What does the Wyo F&G care? Why would they want to make the change? They would be degrading the value of the points with 50/50. Even though it MIGHT help me, I'm totally against the change.

Zeke
 
I am not aware of any action to change the current 75/25 split in permit allocation, other than the survey conducted earlier this year. I too would be deeply disappointed (as an initial reaction!) to any move by WY to change the rules after years of inducing Non-Resident applicants to pay a high $100 price for preference points. It is not clear that any change would be "fairer" than the current system. And any change that would reduce the apparent "eventuality of draw" would significantly decrease the perceived value of preference points, leading to reduced revenues.

It is my guess that much of the pressure to change the rules is coming from the Resident side of the ledger. There are many more residents in the higher-points classes, but that is principally because the cost of a Resident preference point has been kept at $7.

In any event, arguments that claim that new applicants, including particularly young applicants, "could never expect to draw in their lifetime" are flawed. They generally assume very low (close to 0%) attrition rates of those already holding points. Attrition rates are lower in the Resident pool, but that again is a function of the very low $7 annual cost to remain in the game. If Residents wanted to increase their chances of drawing a sheep permit, they could lobby for an increase in the annual price to remain in the draw. This would reduce the number of casual applicants ("I'm applying for me, my wife, my kids... and my grandmother!") and concentrate the permits among those who seriously are interested in hunting bighorns.

In the Non-Resident pool, attrition rates are such (based on the past several years of data) to assume that a young person entering the preference point draw today could expect to draw when they are still young enough to hunt. It may take 25 to 30 years to draw, but eventually it would happen. Of course, the key is to start early. Or... get lucky and catch one of the 25% of the permits offered in the Random Draw.

Good luck in the 2011 Draw!

HT
 
HT
Once again, your observations and comments are very astute! I have been applying for a desert sheep tag in my home state of Utah now for over 40 years, (I missed applying one year) and I have still not drawn. I will draw a tag within the next few years for sure, but at least that is assured. Those who feel like they deserve a tag every 10 or 15 or even 20 years need a reality check about how few sheep tags are available for the number of hunters who desire them.
While the Wyoming pt system is not perfect, changing the rules in the middle of the game is a bad idea. I also agree 100% with your observation with the resident beef! Upping the anti will surely eliminate grandma and aunt Hilda from the odds pool. Great post!
 
Toad thanks for the input, it's nice to hear something other than rumors once in a while.

I was under the impression the questionnaire was the prelude to a possible something they'd already decided, if they were just fishing for some input I hope they didn't get much support for a change. if you do catch wind of a debate in F&W on the subject please let us NR guys know, what we think doesn't matter much but I bet there would be enough interest to stir things up a bit.

I'm not one for litigation but sheep hunters are a pretty serious bunch, if you changed the rules in the middle of the game to degrade the value of prefference points that each hunter has thousands of dollars in wouldn't that be a possible opening for a suit? some of those higher up on the totem pole have deep pockets, I can't imagine them not considering it, maybe even class action. I'm just saying.
 
All you can do is try to do your best estimate based upon the current system...knowing full well that the rules can change at any time. Rules are subject to change on a yearly basis...You know that going in.

Oh well, I'm in the -1 pool so a 50:50 split won't make too many years difference to me now...And I would have already had a tag by now if they hadn't changed the rules already so 25% of the tags go to random draw...They have changed the rules once since implementing the point system, so they can change it again.

Don't even think about what reducing the nonresident quota to 10% standard to most states combined with a 50:50 split might do to the projected draw year :)
 
I'm pretty sure it's been 75/25 since I started 13 years ago.

If the rules change it will be for one reason only, more people would jump for $100 a pop in if 50% of the tags were up for grabs their first time in. for what it's worth a FNAWS insider has already told me he knows a few guys who will sue, they have more money than years to wait. must be on principle because it would probably be cheaper to buy a governors tag.
 
As a resident, oh what I would give if they would raise the price of sheep, moose, and goat tags for us. Id gladly pay $1000 or more for any of the three. I know tons of people who put in just to put in and put in all of their family members they can. There are so many "tire kickers" in the draw that really arent that serious about these coveted tags that Im sure if eliminated the odds would go up drastically. I also know Im not the only one that feels this way.
 
440, I too was thinking about someone starting a class action suit if they change the tag allocation. They've charged a lot of money for these ponts, and more than a few people will take a change that reduces their chance very serously, I would expect. Think of the number of people with 10+points who may not have ever begun applying if they knew their chances would be reduced arbitrarily sometime in the future.

I can easily see this being something that'd cost Wyoming gam and fish way more to defent than anything they'd get in the way of increased revenues.
 
That's what I'm hoping too.

I've seen a case or two where a state has made it easier for the top point holders to draw but never to degrade their position. I
 
Rules, seasons, tag distribution and such are decided on an annual basis by state game and fish departments. Rules can are are subject to change... There is no assurance of any future value of any points you accrue in the draw process. It's buyer beware...You know that nothing ever stays the same forever...No way would a lawsuit have any chance of success if/when a state changes things up. The point genie is out of the bottle now..some are going to be disappointed.

If you don't play the draws and rules, you won't be drawn. That's all you really know...

BTW, WY did go to 75/25 fairly early on, maybe the second or third year of points. It was 100% preference to start.

What about when AZ went to the 20% max points from 10%..Effectivly turning 13 AZ deer to complete nonresident preference? Wouldn't a applicant in nearly as long feel slighted?

CO's changing from no nonresident quota to 40% to 20%? Wouldn't a applicant feel slighted?

MT had a points system for moosae goat and sheep, went away from it, then started a bonus point system. The guys in the first one had the points turned to nothing...

And NM had one for a year or two...

Things can change.
 
Hell yeh---states change the rules alot!

Where do ya think the term Point Creep came from?
They change the rules and a year or two later blamed it on Point Creep!

They should get rid of the point code only gig but that is a ton of $$$ coming in from the 'speculators' that most every years state they will draw in 10-12 years....

Look at Utah---for no reason at all------change the appli dates to March/April for 2011.........

Robb
 
Well if these guys follow through we'll see, start screwing around with sheep points on guys who are getting older and have a lot of money and see what you get . I'm no lawyer but a change 15 years after the fact for no reason other than trying to give hope to more newbees and take their $100 as well seems weak. Idaho didn't think they had to give the NR hunters any moose tags either, but what did they do when the heat came on? is it really worth a suit when the state has so little to win?


Colorado is very generous to the NR, even with the new quotas they're still in the top states for NR quotas. and they didn't devalue anyones points.

I thought Utah upped the amount of preference point tags and cut the bonus quota? maybe I'm wrong.
 
WY is sort of a special sheep tag case...With current nonresident tag distribution and the current draw system, a person can expect to draw someday...So a preference points system may be sustainable. It's the only state where a nonresident can expect to draw in his life if he applies long enough.

The outfitters lobby likely wants older nonresidents who are more likely to hire a guide to draw...It is powerful and will fight any attempts to change the system or nonresident quota. The double edge is the wilderness law...

Keep in mind that it's all a political process. If enough pressure to change is applied, things will change. I'm not saying they will, just that it can happen...The longer out your expected date is, the more likely the rug is to be pulled from underneath..
 
You're probably right, I never thought about the outfitters no doubt they would prefer to leave things alone that makes sense.

If I ever draw I'd get an outfitter anyway most likely, it's a one time shot. I'm going to have as much into preference points and a tag as an outfitter would cost so why cheap out at that point.
 
It took awhile before someone finally caught onto the outfitter connection. The whole reason they went to a 25% allocation was because the outfitter lobby pushed for it. I think for the quota to change it would take legislative intervention. The outfitters still have significant clout, but Joe Average Hunter has significantly more clout than he did 10 years ago simply because of the internet. Remember a few years ago when the clowns at the SFW tried to get license set asides for the outfitters. They got their azzes handed to them because so many hunters became involved. It all had to do with the internet. You might recall that legislation congress signed a few years ago giving states authority to manage wildlife as they see fit. I suspect any class action lawsuit regarding changes to the current allocation system would get tossed out long before a court date was ever set. Personally I'd like to see the quota switched to a 90/10 split for moose & sheep and then see resident fee's increased enough to cover any lost revenues from those nonresidents who bail out of the draw. Having said the above, I really don't have a fight in the matter as I'll likely draw a sheep tag this coming year. Afterwards, I don't expect to ever apply again.
 
In some cases you're right but average Joe Non Res hunter has zero clout , and the outfitters have clout because of the economic impact. as it should be.

I just hope the leave it alone for the NR anyway.
 
You bet outfitters have clout in Wyo....especially when it comes to nonres sheep hunters. There are only a couple sheep units in the entire state of Wyo that don't have wilderness areas and with the guide in wilderness law outfitters can charge a premium for guided sheep hunts.

How many Western states do guided sheep hunts start at around $8,000 and go up to over $10,000? These are standard guided sheep rates in Wyo wilderness! If you add on the $2,266 nonres license fee plus $100/year to apply it costs over $13,000 to go on a guided sheep hunt in Wyo....and that price has been increasing every couple years! Here in Colo a nonres can go on a similar guided sheep hunt in Colo wilderness for under $5,000.
 
Well since the outfitters want what I want power to them.

I see sheep hunts in WY for 5-6K , maybe they suck I don't know but I didn't think they were that high.
 
We (all, not just WY) have the best politicians money can buy. Why should hunting legislaion be any different? :)

As a poor nonresident, I realize my opinion isn't worth much...But I'd gladly take a 10% nonresident quota in exchange for removing the wilderness guide BS...,It would mean more tags available to me in areas I could legally hunt.....
 
I am not sure where jims is getting his figures, but I know plenty of Wyoming outfitters that still guide sheep for 6K or so. After my Wyoming sheep hunt several years back I would say my outfitter was worth every penny I paid him and more.
Just Sayin.
 
I'm sure the outfitter was worth it. But their services should sell on their own merrits...not based upon mandating that roughly 20% of the pepole who draw sheep tags have to use their services...That's welfare, plain and simple...using limited high demand public resources to subsidize a sponsoring interest.
 
I kind of agree the wilderness thing is a joke, but the fact is without them we NR hunters wouldn't be getting anywhere near 25% of the tag allotment you can bet on that.

For the most part outfitters are good hard working people, and if I ever draw I'll hire one anyway I bet so I don't care.
 
For those that want proof of the price associated w/a Wyo sheep hunt. I did a Wyo sheep outfitter search and here are the links to the prices for each outfitter: http://www.blackdiamondoutfitting.com/#prices
http://www.bearbasinoutfitters.net/bighorn_hunt.htm
http://www.boulderbasinoutfitters.com/rates-elk-mule-deer-sheep-wyoming-hunting-trips.html
http://www.sheepmesaoutfitters.com/WyomingBigGameHunt.html
http://www.ishawooaoutfitters.com/html/rates2.html
http://www.ddoutfitterswyo.com/booking_pricing_dd_outfitting.html
http://www.elkmountainoutfittersllc.com/pricelist.html
http://www.wyomingwilderness.com/html/hunting/pricelist_hunts.html
http://www.livingston-hunts.com/info.html
http://www.huntinfo.com/hunton-creek-outfitters/

8 out of 10 of the outfitters were charging $8,000+ for a sheep hunt in 2010. There are a couple that were less but there is a good chance that the prices on their website haven't been updated. Even at $6k or $7K for a sheep hunt if you add on the license and application fees it comes to over almost $10,000 for a Wyo sheep hunt!
 
No doubt that a bit of the free market pricing is lost when a guarenteed number of potential clients are forced by law to use an outfitter each and every year...They can choose between, but have to pick one...

WY is the only state where sheep/moose tags have better draw for a nonresident than a resident...Price has a lot to do with it, more so than the relatively high nonresident quota.

It is what it is, I'll play by their rules and pay. I'll be grateful for the tag and enjoy the hunt when it comes...:)
 
I was not intending to get your dander up jims, and as your list indicates there are many who charge a hefty rate. I do know of 5 or 6 outfits, who are in the range I mentioned, including the one I used.
That being said, I would also point out that sheep tags are available in Wyoming, outside wilderness areas, which don't require a guide.
Despite hiring a guide, I killed my sheep outside of the wilderness, in area 4, which is mostly wilderness country.
Elmer's point is well taken.
I drew because I played by their rules and I saved up for years so I could play. The hunt was everything I had dreamed it would be and price I paid was well worth it to me. Any way you look at it, sheep hunting is an expensive adventure. Good luck to all who have the dream and are willing to do what it takes to make it happen.
 
I'm going on another Dall sheep hunt to the Yukon with my son in 2011, so it will be PP only for me in Wyoming this year.
 
HT,
I checked your points for the Yukon.... you have enough points to go with your son! LOL

Good luck bro! I will be hunting Dall sheep in the NWT for the 3rd time, this time with my daughter. (I might be hunting Desert sheep with my son this year, he's close on points according to you)

PLEASE keep us posted on your hunt. I love to hear how other sheep hunter are doing.

Thanks, as always, for your great info,
Zeke
 
HT,
I just got back from a Dall hunt with my son this August in the NWT.
We were only 10 miles from the Yukon on our hunt, so hopefully your experience will be as amazing as ours! I can't think of anything I would rather do than hunt with my son!

Good luck to both of you and feel free to PM me if you need any advice. I am full of that...and a lot of other crap.
 
WY will increase the % that goes random now that point creep is so obvious and point holders literally die when still decades from a guaranteed draw date. Why change? Big money for pref points so need hope to stay alive. If you are not in max sheep pool then only a handful of tags you have any chance to draw but if put more tags in the random bucket then the majority of potential applicants (non max pool applicants) become more hopeful which leads to higher participation in the draw and more $$$.

Is silly to think Wy gives a crap about screwing old guys who have applied for 15 years if they can shake loose more money from the next generation of suckers.
 
Very sly post Toad. Discourage the heck out of the faint and get them to drop out thus improving your odds. Very, very, tricky. ;)
Regards, Mike
 
Mike - I'm not sure that I get your point. If anything, I am more often criticized for being overly optimistic... rather than slying discouraging. There are other prognosticators with far worse predictions than mine. For example, my model predicts that of the 494 applicants with 11 preference points going into the 2011 draw, only 187 (38%) will eventually draw permits, with a median draw year in 2023, while 307 (62%) will find some reason to drop out of the process by attrition before drawing a permit. Now, these are the guys who have already hung in there for 11 years buying preference points. If the attrition rate is significantly less, say only 50%, then the number of years to draw a permit for the 11 preference point class, and all point classes that come behind them, will be substantially greater.

There's no reason to get discouraged. Unless you are very young and have many years of preference point accumulations ahead of you, or are already in one of the higher-point classes, simply accept the fact that there will always be much more demand for the limited number of sheep permits available than supply, and forget any notion of being entitled to drawing a permit eventually. Either you will get lucky, or you won't!

HT
 
What? I'm not entitled to a tag for sheep? LOL

I'll probably be 69 years old when I draw my sheep tag in Wyo.
I'm OK with that fact. I actually like the point system and have been rewarded richly in the past in several States.

I'm ready to draw a moose tag if the wolves don't beat me to them first!

It really is something to be excited about. (I'll need to get on the ole stair-stepper and treadmill tonight.... again)

Thanks for the good word HT.

Zeke
 
HT
I have to agree that your odds are very optimistic and give hope.
Certainly anything can happen with the odds game. One thing is for sure! If we didn't have the points systems, old guys like me and Zeke would be SOL.
Zeke them bullwinkles are pretty big to be packing out by yourself, and no strapping a pack saddle onto the little woman, ether. LOL I know your MO!!
 

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