HornedToad
Active Member
- Messages
- 410
Wyoming Game and Fish will soon post its table of Preference Points (PP) going into the 2012 Draw, but here is an early look at the numbers for Non-Resident Bighorn Sheep, along with a prediction of the median year in which each point class could expect to draw.
Listed below are (A) Number of Preference Points, (B) Number of Non-Res. Sportspersons, (C) Predicted Median Year to Draw, and (D) change from prediction of previous year:
(A) (B) (C) (D)
01 1150 2047 na
02 691 2045 (0)
03 538 2043 (0)
04 520 2041 (0)
05 494 2039 (0)
06 422 2037 (0)
07 418 2035 (0)
08 480 2033 (0)
09 527 2031 (0)
10 526 2028 (0)
11 509 2025 (0)
12 473 2023 (0)
13 168 2020 (+1)
14 146 2018 (+1)
15 122 2016 (+1)
16 110 2014 (+1)
17 27 2013 (+1)
The Median Year can be thought of as the average year in which a person in a given PP class could expect to draw. Half would draw before the median while half would draw after. In general, those drawing earlier than the median will be applying in secondary (or less in demand) units, while those drawing later will be applying in primary (or most in demand) units.
The Predicted Median Year to Draw is based on a model that includes a number of assumptions, including (a) that the number of permits offered in the Non-Resident preference point draw remains constant at the current level, and (b) the annual attrition rate in each PP class (those dropping out of the draw) remains consistent with the average of the previous three years. Obviously, if either of these assumptions are off, the predicted years to draw would change measurably.
The annual attrition rates assumed in the above model remain significant. For example, the attrition rate for the top five point classes (13 thru 17) averaged 5.3% annually over the past three years, while for the second cohort (8 thru 12) the average was 6.1%, and for the lowest point classes (2 thru 7) the average was 13.6%. Continuation of these attrition rates implies that most sportspersons holding 12 or fewer points will eventually drop out of the process before drawing a permit. For example, of the 473 persons holding 12 points going into the 2012 draw, the model predicts that 225 will eventually draw permits, while 248 will not.
The MAX PP class, holding 17 points going into the 2012 draw, has been reduced to 27. There were 32 MAX point holders going into the 2011 draw. Of these, only 6 applied for a permit, with 4 being selected. One person dropped out. At this rate, it could take another five to six years before all of the MAX point holders are eliminated, with most of the permits being drawn by those currently holding 13 to 16 points. This ability to continue drawing preference points (presumably, as long is one is alive to do so) illustrates the difficulty of predicting the year in which any one PP class "clears out" to make way for those following. Clearly, there will be a great deal of overlap in the draw schedules of the various point classes.
Finally... I hope that the slight early release of this information does not cause anyone to torque out. No one should expect to gain any advantage through a review of this information.
Good luck to all in the 2012 Draw.
Horned Toad
Listed below are (A) Number of Preference Points, (B) Number of Non-Res. Sportspersons, (C) Predicted Median Year to Draw, and (D) change from prediction of previous year:
(A) (B) (C) (D)
01 1150 2047 na
02 691 2045 (0)
03 538 2043 (0)
04 520 2041 (0)
05 494 2039 (0)
06 422 2037 (0)
07 418 2035 (0)
08 480 2033 (0)
09 527 2031 (0)
10 526 2028 (0)
11 509 2025 (0)
12 473 2023 (0)
13 168 2020 (+1)
14 146 2018 (+1)
15 122 2016 (+1)
16 110 2014 (+1)
17 27 2013 (+1)
The Median Year can be thought of as the average year in which a person in a given PP class could expect to draw. Half would draw before the median while half would draw after. In general, those drawing earlier than the median will be applying in secondary (or less in demand) units, while those drawing later will be applying in primary (or most in demand) units.
The Predicted Median Year to Draw is based on a model that includes a number of assumptions, including (a) that the number of permits offered in the Non-Resident preference point draw remains constant at the current level, and (b) the annual attrition rate in each PP class (those dropping out of the draw) remains consistent with the average of the previous three years. Obviously, if either of these assumptions are off, the predicted years to draw would change measurably.
The annual attrition rates assumed in the above model remain significant. For example, the attrition rate for the top five point classes (13 thru 17) averaged 5.3% annually over the past three years, while for the second cohort (8 thru 12) the average was 6.1%, and for the lowest point classes (2 thru 7) the average was 13.6%. Continuation of these attrition rates implies that most sportspersons holding 12 or fewer points will eventually drop out of the process before drawing a permit. For example, of the 473 persons holding 12 points going into the 2012 draw, the model predicts that 225 will eventually draw permits, while 248 will not.
The MAX PP class, holding 17 points going into the 2012 draw, has been reduced to 27. There were 32 MAX point holders going into the 2011 draw. Of these, only 6 applied for a permit, with 4 being selected. One person dropped out. At this rate, it could take another five to six years before all of the MAX point holders are eliminated, with most of the permits being drawn by those currently holding 13 to 16 points. This ability to continue drawing preference points (presumably, as long is one is alive to do so) illustrates the difficulty of predicting the year in which any one PP class "clears out" to make way for those following. Clearly, there will be a great deal of overlap in the draw schedules of the various point classes.
Finally... I hope that the slight early release of this information does not cause anyone to torque out. No one should expect to gain any advantage through a review of this information.
Good luck to all in the 2012 Draw.
Horned Toad
