Looking at Rifle hunts:
San Juan Elk Ridge looks like you may have 1 guy ahead of you (who will probably draw this year if he sticks with that hunt/unit) and 2 other guys with you in your point pool. (Having 14 last year. With 1 bonus permit, that means if the guy ahead of you draws this year, and no one else puts in (doubtful) then in 2016 you will be 1 of 3 guys with 16 points. 33% that year.
You would draw Diamond Mtn. for sure.
You would draw West Desert, Vernon for sure.
You would draw Fillmore, Oak Creek for sure. (don't do it)
You would draw Book Cliffs North or South.
Also, it should be noted that there is a new Multi-Season tag and I think the Book Cliffs will have enough Resident tags for it to have at least 1 NR tag. That would get you the opportunity to hunt all 3 LE seasons in 2016. With 16 points next year, Id bet you would draw it.
Also, in my opinion, as a NR, you won't draw a tag on either of the Premium units in Utah for a very long time or never. As such, you have to look at other units to pursue your trophy. While some may say you are "wasting" your points by hunting the Book Cliffs, here is the reality: It now takes 11 points as a Resident to guarantee a tag to the Book Cliffs Rifle. As a NR, it is obviously going to take you longer than that. So, 16 points may be high, but unless you pull a tag for one of the "lesser" LE deer units, they are completely worthless to you towards those premium units. Unless you don't mind NOT hunting like all the NR yahoos that put in for the Henry's tag. (Marley here on MM excluded as he drew the sucker).
Good luck no matter what you do. I think that 16 years is far too long to wait to shoot a skinny deer with molting hair and fuzzy antlers... Stick with a rifle.
"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24