This should be in the Arizona Forum.
Its kind of complicated. And from free public information you cannot get the exact exact answer that I am aware of. I'll try to lead you to water here
You have to have first go to the 2014 regs and get the specific hunter numbers that you are interested in.
Start off by looking at this picture:
Only 145 of the 963 people with 15 or more points are resident, I would guess that very few residents in that pool are using them on the kaibab, (most are waiting for strip tag). So if you use that info, you can use the following to surmise your Kaibab chances. Remember only 10% of tags can go to nonresidents. (This is supposed to change some in 2016 fyi)
This is the route website where you get the info:
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BonusPointProcess.shtml
Bonus Point Pass:
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/docu... Point Report - Bonus Pass by Hunt Number.pdf
1st and 2nd Choice random draw round pass:
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/docu...us Point Report - 1-2 Pass by Hunt Number.pdf
In my opinion, if you are a talented hunter, hunt the entire hunt, and have a guide, you should have very good chances at least to get a 180 class buck. If you take any of those variables out, chances start to go down. Maybe 5 to 10% of the deer harvested on these hunts exceed 185? Alot of it is weather based however, some years you see 30 bucks a day, some years you are hard pressed if weather is super warm etc. Just my opinions based on what I've experienced, seen, heard.
Good Luck! May the odds be ever in your favor. Ty