LAST EDITED ON Feb-23-19 AT 05:17PM (MST)[p]The "simple math" is that NR's being able to apply for multiple tags reduces their odds of drawing any tag.
Here's why...
Don't get lost in the weeds on points, bottom line is the true, final, actual odds are number of tags divided by number of applicants. It doesn't matter how many tickets are in the bucket, whether each hunter has one ticket or every hunter has 100 tickets, ultimately the final odds are always the same.
To make it easier, picture you're sitting at one of the famous SFW Banquets and they have the big jug of red tickets in a drawing for another Remington 870 shotgun. If they handed all 150 people in attendance one free ticket, the odds would be 1:150 that any individual person would win. If they handed all 150 people 10 tickets each, the odds would still be 1:150 even though there are 1,500 tickets in the bucket. They didn't increase odds, just tickets. If they let people buy as many tickets as they want for that drawing and had 2,500 tickets in the bucket, the bottom line is that 1 person would get the gun and 149 would not get the gun. Point systems do NOT affect overall odds they only increase the likelihood of fairness over an extended time, i.e. that no person will draw 6 tags before somebody else draws their first tag (like is happening at the Expo).
No single person can draw multiple LE or OIL tags in a given year, once they draw their first tag they are not allowed to draw other tags via the Big Game Draw; the draw order is in the Proclamation. This means that no person can draw deer, elk, moose, and sheep... even though, as a NR, they are allowed to apply for them. They still only have a chance at drawing one tag, best case scenario. This is an important part of the equation.
The impetus for allowing NR to apply for multiple tags is to play on their desire for "intermittent reinforcement" where people believe if they keep playing the lottery they are bound to win eventually. Don't underestimate the power of "intermittent reinforcement" there is a city about 400 miles south of SLC on I-15 that is built upon it.
And when people think they get to play a bigger lottery with more chances to win (even though they are limited to one win) they are more likely to spend the money to do so. The reason NR are allowed to apply for every species is because DWR wants their license fees and app fees and knows that if NR felt they got 7 chances to win for their money they'd be more likely to buy the license than if they only got 2 chances to win. They may get to apply for every species, but so does every other NR, thus odds did not change; and if this caused more people to apply, then the odds of drawing actually decreased. Every NR with 10 points for each species thinks they have improved their odds, but they forget that every other NR that has been applying for the past decade has the same 10 points for each species. Their odds haven't improved, everybody just has more tickets in the bucket.
DWR is playing on the naivety and optimism of NR hunters to increase revenue. In so doing, they attract more NR hunters to apply for the few available tags (which are fixed in number, unlike other states that have "up to" quotas) and thus you've now increased the number of people applying for the same few tags.
Last year, 4200 NR applied for 3 Henry's Any Weapon deer tags resulting in drawing odds of 1:1400. If 20% fewer NR applied in Utah because they didn't see the worth with only being able to apply for one species, instead of all species, the applicants would decrease. Last year, 1700 NR applied for 2 San Juan Any Weapon elk tags resulting in drawing odds of 1:850. Imagine if every NR had to choose between elk or deer how many fewer hunters would be in each drawing pool... it would be roughly half the applicants (disregard antelope for this discussion, though it would only increase the validity of my argument). The NR Henry's odds would be 1:560. (4200 x 80% = 3360, 3360/2 = 1680 applicants for 3 tags). Using the same calculation, the odds of drawing San Juan Elk would be 1:340. Obviously my numbers are merely suppositions but regardless of the ratio of elk:deer applicants, should they have to make the choice, and how many would drop out if they only got to apply for one LE and one OIL each year, the basis of my argument is true. You can substitute your own numbers for guesses if you'd like.
Bottom line is allowing NR to apply for each species causes their overall odds of drawing to go down but DWR makes more money, which is their goal in the first place. To be clear, I'm not begrudging them their goal of increasing revenue, but do not conflate that with some aim of "increasing NR draw odds" by allowing them to apply for multiple species.
POINT SYSTEMS DON'T CHANGE OVERALL ODDS!!! It is always tags divided by applicants. To increase odds you must either increase tags or decrease applicants. Everything else is just smoke and mirrors.
Grizzly
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"This is a classic case of a handful of greedy fly fishermen getting too greedy." -Don Peay, Founder of SFW, as told to KUTV
"It's time to revisit the widely accepted principle in the United States and Canada that game is a public resource."
-Don Peay, Founder of SFW, as quoted in Anchorage Daily News
Rich!
