LAST EDITED ON Feb-21-06 AT 08:43PM (MST)[p]Archery, I believe that you are incorrect, if I understand you correctly.
Lets start with the facts:
1) Residents are guaranteed 65% of the tags (assuming there are that many resident applicants)
2) Nonresidents are not guarateed any tags, they are "capped" at 35% (again assuming enough residents apply)
So, your statement that "nonresidents get the other 35%" is not correct. There is no guarantee, just a CAP.
As I understand it, the computer is just going to start pulling peoples names out of a hat randomly, without regard to resident vs. nonresident. Only when it reaches the "cap" for nonresidents will it start giving preference to residents.
Since all the applicants have the same points in the example, the real question is what are the odds that any one person will be drawn. Answer: 100 divided by 120 = 83%. 83% of 20 nonrsidents is 17 tags. So, on average, in the example given, only 17 nonresidents will get tags. That is great odds, but not a lock.
However, there is a silver lining to this. Since residents get picked more, that means they drop to 0 points each time. So the next year, nonresidents would be drawn since they have would have 1 point.
Drawings are determined first by preference points, until the nonresident cap is reached, then by resident status. For example, in the same example, if 100 residents had 1 point, and the 20 residents all have 0 points, no residents will draw.
However, if there are 100 residents with 0 points and 100 NONresidents with 5 points, the residents will still draw 65 tags and nonresidents will draw 35.
This has been the way this was done since they changed it to the 60/40 rule. Nothing new here except they lowered the "cap" to 35%
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)