Looking at raw numbers, if you assume that only the same people apply for a 4th season tag in 22, you should get a tag. only 1 person in front of you. But of course, more may apply....
Of course they lowered the tag numbers from 9 to 5 last year. No telling what they will do this year. Might check with the local DOW people to see if they think they will maintain numbers or go up or down?
As far as 61, elk hunters may have only seen 1 deer, but lots of others report lots of good deer. Just have to look in the right places.
You might look at the raw data on the hunts odds (top of this page). Pull up the unit, then click on the hunt you want to see how many people with each point total apply. Gives you a better sense of your real odds.
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)