Permit #s

slcmuley · Feb 6, 2011

LAST EDITED ON Feb-06-11 AT 06:26PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-06-11 AT 06:25?PM (MST)

I was fooling around with some of the DWR's data and came up with some possible permit #s by unit.

Units in red are in need of help.
The units in orange should be watched carefully
Take a look at the units you hunt and let me know how you feel.

http://www.monstermuleys.info/photos/user_photos/9408proposed_unit_permits.pdf

Daxter · Feb 6, 2011

So are those permit numbers your ideas, or are they the current number of hunters on those units?

Dax

There is no such thing as a sure thing in trophy mule deer hunting.

hossblur · Feb 7, 2011

The Manti should be in red

goofyelk · Feb 7, 2011

I would say that looks really good..
I also think you should replace Anis A & Jim K. at the DWR.

Why cant they come up with solid permit numbers and show
some support for option 2?

You have hit the starting spot for opt 2 on THE HEAD!

slcmuley · Feb 7, 2011

I have used the 2009 total hunters per area data.
The ratio #s are from the slide that was used at the WB meeting.
I used an average of past years hunters afield and tried to keep the #s close, trying not to reduce too much opportunity.
My calculations showed 102,829 total hunters in 2009 (I think this includes NR) I would like to know if the data includes management hunts and the buck/bull hunters in the northern units. My sheet shows a permit reduction of 7,000. Keep in mind I was only able to work with the data I could find.

This was only a snapshot, but I thought it may start discussions and get us ready for what is inevidable. My question is:
"How can the DWR suggest cutting 13,000 permits with first running a model such as this?"

LOWCOUNTRY · Feb 7, 2011

Great post I think the buck numbers on the Panguitch and Dutton are going to fall off as well( the data youve got didnt show the 2010 counts i presume and it was last years 2009/2010 winter we lost a ton of deer on those units?). Both units look piss poor at this point. Ive seen few deer in both places and fewer bucks than I ever have this last winter while out hunting lions. The winter range on the Kaparowits which some areas used to hold a few hundred head of deer there isnt a deer track. Great feed not so much snow just no deer. It will be interesting to see what their 2010 counts show. Thanks for putting this together interesting to see things put into perspective.

AWHOLELOTTABULL · Feb 7, 2011

Maybe I'm misunderstanding this. But I don't see how anybody could possibly think that the Central Mountains/Nebo has 18/100. The Wasatch West is a little more believable but NOT the Nebo unit. Like I have always said before, if we continue to go off of the current counting trends then we are never going to climb out of this hole.

It's always an adventure!!!

slcmuley · Feb 7, 2011

You are 100% correct AWLB the counting data we currently use might not help as much as it should.I think it would also be nice to see total herd #s per unit on this sheet. It would help alot while determining permit allocations.

slcmuley · Feb 7, 2011

AWLB-
Nebo was actually at a 15% ratio in '09. Given the DWR's current standard of a 3 yr avg this unit will drop significantly this year. Last years #s have it at 18% over the past 3 years avg. I am willing to bet this drops to 16% or lower as the data is updated.

desertpointbrian · Feb 7, 2011

north slope and kamas should be in red

slcmuley · Feb 7, 2011

Her it is with the DWR's estimated herd counts. I think some of the permit #s need to be adjusted now.
Before I compared this data I was going off of how many hunters were histirically hunting each area. You can definitely see areas that need less pressure and areas that can handle more hunters.

http://www.monstermuleys.info/photos/user_photos/1392proposed_unit_permits_with_herd_count.pdf

AWHOLELOTTABULL · Feb 7, 2011

LOL. slc, dude you are way too smart!

It will take me a day or 2 to process these number and percentages. I see where you are going with this though and I like it!!!! One thing I do know about you is that you don NOT work for the DWR.

It's always an adventure!!!

tstewy · Feb 7, 2011

Love the idea but i can attest those numbers are going to crap after thie years winter kill. Does anyone actually buy those number?

goofyelk · Feb 8, 2011

SLCMuley, I think this is some of the best stuff I've seen.
AND YES, We need correct herd counts, But this sets the
basic design. SLC, would you mined if I use this link to
show a few these ideas?

slcmuley · Feb 8, 2011

Go ahead Goofy. My whole point in putting this up was to start looking at possible scenarios and get feedback from others. I would love to see your adjustments on the link. I could also email you the spreadsheet I used.

Like I said in a previous post, I can some adjusting that needs to be done now that the herd count is on there.

huntin100 · Feb 8, 2011

Thanks for your concern and help SLCmuley.

The Cache target numbers and herd numbers are backwards.

The real current population numbers for the Cache unit is about 5-8,000 deer. The buck to doe ratio is probably 15 to 100. IMO.

We need to have every hunter fill out a harvest survey, like they do for LE units.

Keep up the good work.

Thanks