Unit 9 Draw Odds Depression

Pruney

Active Member
Messages
261
I just looked at the Bonus Pass for unit 9 archery for the 2009 draw. I shouldn't have. It looks like there were a glut of NRs at the 13 and 14 point level which means I am unlikely to draw in 2010 even with 14 points. If my estimate is correct, there are between 7 and 9 total applicants (all NR) still holding 15 points and there were only 10 NR tags in 2009. There are also about 20 left (again all NRs) with 14 points. Draw Odds of 1 or 3 in 20 is not the lock I thought it would be.

Hard to believe I was in the max pool clear back in 2006. I hate point creep!
 
You could hope that some of those first choice applicants with 13 & 14BP this year that did not draw their first choice unit 9 may have drawn their second choice. One also does not know if those that applied second choice for U9 may have drawn their first choice for another hunt.
 
Maybe some of the 13 pointers, but not more than a couple at 14. I looked at all the archery hunts with 14 point applicants and of the 12 first choices, 10 were in 9 and the other 2 in 23N. The most likely crossover is unit 10 where 3 applied as a 2nd choice and 1 drew so that may be one of the unit 9 apps (other two drew 1st choice which may have been 9 but already counted). 1 other 2nd choice drew in unit 4B and that could have been a 9 app or the other 23N app. That is best case scenario as both the 2nd choicers may have had early rifle or muzz as 1st choice. That leaves 7 to 9 with 15 points this year.
 
Pruney, pm me if you want to draw and hunt a big bull next year in az. 9 isn't everything! Its a real good unit but the last couple of years there is a couple of units that might be better.
 
Every unit on the rim has trophy elk. There is a few off of the rim that has some dandies as well. Please quit knocking our system. It's the best that we've ever had. Please also remember that before the 1930's or 20's there was no elk in AZ. Thanks to the great state of Wyoming, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Sevice, U.S. Forest Service and President Teddy Roosevelt that we all have elk back in our state. The bottom line is that we can thank our ancestors for getting rid of elk because the frontiers-men (ranchers) didn't like them. But yet, we the hunters and ranchers brought them back. That is why AZ has the best Bull Elk in the U.S. I thank all hunters & ranchers around the globe for caring.

ERIC
 
LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-09 AT 12:21PM (MST)[p]
Eric,

Thanks for another opening to present some historical perspective. The following is an excerpt from an article I wrote on AZ's elk in the 1980s.

*****

......The elk population in Arizona is currently at an all-time high since modern management began. The Arizona Game and Fish Department estimates the number to be between 20 and 30,000 right now. This is mostly due to a few years where the rainfall was above average, keeping the wapiti's home range in prime condition. Yet, the elk herd hasn't always been in such great shape. In fact, at the turn of the century, elk in Arizona were extinct.

The native elk that inhabited the state was known as the Merriam's elk. Large herds, often numbering in the hundreds, gathered in the cienega's to feed on lush grasses. In early fall the distinct, high-pitched bugle of the majestic wapiti pierced the quiet of frosty mornings, issuing a challenge to other bulls who dare trespass on his harem.

Unfortunately, a drastic change took place, and the Merriam's elk disappeared. Records indicate the last sightings occurred in the late 1890s and early 1900s.

No one has been able to pinpoint the exact reasons why the Merriam's became extinct. Yet historians have long held to the theory that indiscriminate hunting over many years might have been the major cause of the animal's demise. The historians readily point fingers at the miners, soldiers and settlers. In their quest for survival, they considered the elk as a bare necessity to provide food and clothing.

Naturally, the elk's size and superior meat made it a favorite target for the meat hunters. The soldiers at a few of the military outposts subsisted solely on elk for their fresh meat. The hides, frequently sold and traded, produced tough, long-lasting leather for shirts, jackets and britches. Although they were worthless for anything other than trinkets or curiosities, the canine teeth from bulls quickly became collector's items. The historians claim the canine teeth led to a fad that accounted for the slaughter of thousands of elk.

The resurgence of the elk herd in Arizona was not accidental, nor was it a natural occurrence. The slow, bountiful turn-around happened because of the concern of people who missed the shrill calls of big bulls on crisp mornings.

Members of the Winslow B.P.O.E (ELk) Club obtained 86 elk in 1913 from Yellowstone National Park, one of the few places in the country where the elk still flourished then. They transported the animals to Arizona by train, which at the time was probably not an easy chore. The Mogollon Rim had been the Merriam's elk prime habitat before its demise. Consequently, the area on the Rim near Chevelon Canyon became the site for the initial release.

More Yellowstone elk supplemented the original 86 on the Rim over the years. In addition, elk were planted in areas near Clifton, Cutter, Kingman, Williams and Alpine. Even Mt. Graham near Safford received a small number, but the animals never took hold there.

In 1913, moving big-game animals was not common practice but a novel and chancy undertaking. Today, this type of game management is very common and has become one of the key tools of wildlife managers throughout the country.

The first regulated elk hunt was held in 1935. By then the various herds in the state had found a niche and were multiplying at a respectable rate. Of the 276 who hunted that year, 145 killed elk. The annual hunts started in 1950. More than 4,000 hunters harvested 1,500 bulls and cows. Then came the 80s and the boomer years......



TONY MANDILE
48e63dfa482a34a9.jpg

How To Hunt Coues Deer
 
You bet Tony. Coming from you that "Thank You" is a compliment. Hopefully we can all get to enjoy a fresh can of worms again.
 
Nonet,

Thank you. I do realize there are arguable better units in AZ than 9 and with the exception of getting the 1 NR tag in 23N, they all have better draw odds at my point level - 100%. There are several other reasons why I should switch units, and I will after I draw 9, but there are some good reasons for me to stay with 9 for now. The most notable is the fact that I have spent about a week almost every September for the last 12 or 13 years watching and filming bulls on the unit. My brothers and I are very familiar with it and will be able to have a great DIY hunt. When they decided to learn about hunting elk in AZ 20+ years ago Unit 9 was the first place they came to (from Utah) and never really found reason to look elsewhere. Too bad it is such a popular unit, but there is reason. Both brothers have had archery tags once (1998 and 2003 I think) and those two hunts were the 2nd and 3rd best hunts of my lifetime and I did not even have a tag. So I am locked into 9 for personal reasons more than trophy reasons, be it one year or five.

Eric,

"Please quit knocking our system".

Please tell me how my comments were knocking the system. I simply did some draw odds analysis and wallowed in self pity a bit about being farther out than I had hoped. Trust me, I think AZ does a better job of elk management than any other state. If not, I would not donate the license fee every year just to get a bonus point.
 
Hey, no problem at all. there are lots of reasons people put in for the units they do, and it sounds like you have a good one! Heck as a res. I stopped trying for 9 cause the odds suck! Be patient and some day you will have that 9 tag!!! Good Luck!!!!!
 
conch,

did you ever draw? or was it your dad or brother? i remember you were getting close to the max point pool two years ago.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jul-20-09 AT 11:03PM (MST)[p]My buddy and I both drew Unit 9 non resident archery elk as a second choice if that helps you with your statistical analysis. We had 14 points by the way.
 
You are absolutely correct. I spoke out of emotion not rationalism. For that I swallow my pride and appologize to you. I'm just a very proud AZ native. I have never hunted outside of my home state. Probably because it has every big game species that I've ever wanted to hunt, except the great big ungulates such as caribou & moose.
There are flaws with all systems, but I can remember back in the old days you could only apply for elk every 3 or 4 years. Then AZ got relly popular with hunters nationwide. I have done the research and found that AZ is the most desired state to hunt for big trophy bull elk and because the NR's want to hunt here so bad, the G & F had to do something. Thank goodness for groups like the RMEF. The are working to get elk scattered around the U.S. I hear that the herds in KY & PA are really taking off. They don't have the predators that we do out here such as wolves and lion.
 
No worries! I applaud your passion for elk hunting in your home state. I also completely agree with your comments on the RMEF. IMO they are the best conservation organization around, hands down. I wish some of the other wildlife organizations would follow their lead.

If it makes you feel any better, this particular NR used to be an AZ taxpayer in the late 80s when I worked for Kaibab Industries in Fredonia ;-). Wish I would moved 5 miles south, claimed residency, and bought a lifetime license......
 
I am not sure that there is a better unit for upper end big bulls than 9 anywhere in this state!!!There may be the odd bull that scores better but for bulls over 350 B&C 9 has a lot more of them than the others hands down.I have seen bigger bulls in 10,3C,22,23,27,and 1 but not the numbers of bulls over 350 B&c that 9 has.I have found one this year over 400,and five in the 380 to 390 range,what a great antler growing year this one has been.
 
>I have found one this year
>over 400,and five in the
>380 to 390 range,what a
>great antler growing year this
>one has been.



IDcurs,

This report is not helping my depression!

Kidding aside, congrats to all the lucky buggers that pulled a tag.
 
>Eye... gawd Pruney! You are
>depressin!


You ever bring that tongue of yours north of the Canadian River, I'll cut it off and feed it to my wolf pups.
 
billythekid,

I have not received the go ahead yet. I stopped doing the math on these draws. Even in my home state it has become near impossible to sort it out. There always seems to be some wrench thrown in to mess up the numbers. I guess that's fine not drawing out. I still have my points and assuming I don't tip over in some sort of unfortunate accident I'll have that thrill waiting for me. I do know that when I get the tag, it will be my last one in AZ. I won't live long enough to go again. I'll savor the moment. Sometimes I think younger hunters don't understand what twenty years or so between tags means. They are virtually once in a lifetime opportunities. As soon as I get #9 under my belt I will go back to putting in for units of lesser quality. I would rather hunt less popular areas with smaller animals than set at home waiting for the rest of my life. I'm with Pruney on this. I'll hang on for #9 this time, because of my familiarity with the unit. Sorry for the rant. A simple yes or no may have been suffice.

Are you still spending days following monster bulls around and sleeping with them?
 
"You ever bring that tongue of yours north of the Canadian River, I'll cut it off and feed it to my wolf pups."


I should have shot you when I had the Chance!
 
>
>I should have shot you when
>I had the Chance!


I stole horses, burned farms, killed men, raped women and stole children all over your territory and until today, you never even got a good look at me! I don't think you would've killed me. Rangers! I 'spect I'll kill a passel of you yet.
 
I'll say this, Pruney; you're the kind of man it's a pleasure to hang. If all you can talk is guff, you can talk it to the Devil.
 

Arizona Hunting Guides & Outfitters

SilverGrand Outfitters

Offering mule deer, elk, antelope, bighorn sheep, javelina, and turkey hunts in Nevada and Arizona.

Arizona Elk Outfitters

Offering the serious hunter a chance to hunt trophy animals in the great Southwest.

A3 Trophy Hunts

An Arizona Outfitter specializing in the harvest of World Class big game of all species.

Arizona Strip Guides

Highly experienced and highly dedicated team of hardworking professional Arizona Strip mule deer guides.

Urge 2 Hunt

THE premier hunts in Arizona for trophy elk, mule deer, couse deer and javelina.

Shadow Valley Outfitters

AZ Strip and Kaibab mule deer, big bulls during the rut, spot-n-stalk pronghorn and coues deer hunts.

Back
Top Bottom