txhunter58
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 8,546
LAST EDITED ON Dec-30-07 AT 09:35AM (MST)[p]
I guess if I had a bunch of points for Utah, I might stay in the race. But for those of you like me that are in no man's land (3 points), have you done the math to see what your odds really are of EVER drawing a tag?
Take a look at this chart from here on MM:
http://monstermuleys.hunterstrailhead.com/huntsearch.php?ST=UT
For the hunt I want, my odds are approximately 1 in 1000 of gettting a tag. If I decided to try for an archery hunt in that same area, my odds would jump to a 1 in 333 chance.
It doesn't take a genius in math to figure out that I wouldn't bet on getting a tag in my lifetime. So why would I send them $75 bucks a year?
Yes, odds will probably go up when some people (like me) drop out. But lets be optomistic and say that my chances would double: That means I would have a 1 in 500 (a 0.2% chance) and an 1 in 166 chance (0.6% chance). Statistically, that is not much of an improvement.
Yes, you have to "pay to play", but with those long odds, I can think of much better things to do with my money.
And guess what guys, those that are thinking they will stay in because they are applying for a unit with better odds than those just mentioned? What if others study the odds and decide to put in for a unit with better odds? Suddenly your odds drop to where mine are.
For those that stay in, Good luck you you, at least 1 in 1000 of you........
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
I guess if I had a bunch of points for Utah, I might stay in the race. But for those of you like me that are in no man's land (3 points), have you done the math to see what your odds really are of EVER drawing a tag?
Take a look at this chart from here on MM:
http://monstermuleys.hunterstrailhead.com/huntsearch.php?ST=UT
For the hunt I want, my odds are approximately 1 in 1000 of gettting a tag. If I decided to try for an archery hunt in that same area, my odds would jump to a 1 in 333 chance.
It doesn't take a genius in math to figure out that I wouldn't bet on getting a tag in my lifetime. So why would I send them $75 bucks a year?
Yes, odds will probably go up when some people (like me) drop out. But lets be optomistic and say that my chances would double: That means I would have a 1 in 500 (a 0.2% chance) and an 1 in 166 chance (0.6% chance). Statistically, that is not much of an improvement.
Yes, you have to "pay to play", but with those long odds, I can think of much better things to do with my money.
And guess what guys, those that are thinking they will stay in because they are applying for a unit with better odds than those just mentioned? What if others study the odds and decide to put in for a unit with better odds? Suddenly your odds drop to where mine are.
For those that stay in, Good luck you you, at least 1 in 1000 of you........
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)