Wy PP going into the 2013 draw

[Cozmo8]

Hi all it looks like Wy is getting a bit more efficient in getting the PP information out. The PP purchase period ended in September and it is posted today. For Sheep in the NR pool it is surprising how many applicants are dropping out below are the numbers I have.

Max 3 drew in '12 2 dropped out leaving 22
Max-1 17 drew 8 dropped out leaving 85
Max-2 18 drew 6 dropped out leaving 98
Max-3 7 drew 6 dropped out leaving 133
Max-4 3 drew 14 dropped out leaving 165

Keep in mind it is an estimation of the number that dropped out as they may have drawn in the random draw. Regardless of whether they drew or dropped out the the remaining numbers above are what is left for the respective PP pools. Unfortunately for me it is still going to be awhile. The link for the information is below.





http://wgfd.wyo.gov/web2011/Departments/Hunting/pdfs/TOTAL_PREF_POINTS_MS_120003130.pdf

 

[30Hart]

Thanks for the heads-up! This is good news for the rest of us. The only weird thing is last years 14PP pool (15 this year) had 46, 4 drew out leaving 42 left, but this years 15PP pool shows 45 people...unless 3 turned back there tags due to medical reasons???? The interesting thing to watch for is its the same trend for moose, lots dropping out.
18PP group dropped 1
17PP group dropped 3
16PP group dropped 0
15PP group dropped 3
14PP group dropped 2
13PP group dropped 45
12PP group dropped 26

Good for those of us still in the game...every bit helps.

 

[Cozmo8]

Or the applicants in one of the upper pools forgot to apply or buy a point and dropped down in the 14 PP pool.

 

[30Hart]

Good point...that would suck!

 

[HornedToad]

Cozmo - Thanks for posting this information. I have 17 non-resident Sheep preference points, so it is good to see that cohort fall below 100. This may be my year!

Good luck in the draw.

HT

 

[Cozmo8]

Good luck you are getting real close I am envious. I worry a little more every year that I may be too old to draw or when I do draw I will not be able to get it done. I guess time will tell.

 

[HornedToad]

I will fire up my model later this week predicting the median year to draw for each point class, but it may be the weekend before I can get to it.

Some observations:

* There are more non-residents with preference points than ever before going into the 2013 bighorn draw, 7528, compared to 7321 for 2012. At $100 a head, this is a real money maker for Wyoming Game and Fish.

* The attrition rate (meaning those dropping out of the preference point pool but not drawing a permit) was higher than expected for the high-point classes, 13 thru 17 points for 2013, but lower for the mid-point, 8 thru 12 points, and low point, 3 thru 7, classes.

* 13 - 17 points / There were 525 eligible participants with 13 thru 17 points following the 2012 permit draw. Of these, 36 dropped out by not participating in the preference point draw, about 7%, leaving 489 for the 2013 draw.

* 8 - 12 points / There were 2513 eligible with 8 thru 12 points, of which 137 dropped out, only about 5%, leaving 2376 for 2013.

* 3 - 7 points / There were 2392 eligible with 3 thru 7 points, of which 210 dropped out, about 9%, leaving 2182 for 2013.

* 1 - 2 points / There were 1841 eligible with 1 or 2 points, of which 464 dropped out, about 25%, leaving 1377 for 2013.

My model last year used the assumptions that the annual attrition rates for the above groups for 2012 would be 4% for 13 thru 17, 8% for 8 thru 12, 12% for 13 thru 17, and 24% for 1 thru 2. The actual attrition rates of 7% for 13 thru 17 was higher than my assumption of 4%, but the actual rates of 5% for 8 thru 12 and 9% for 3 thru 7 were much lower than my assumptions of 8% and 12%.

In summary, my model last year predicted that for the 13 thru 17 group, 496 participants would carry over to 2013, while the actual number is 489. This is good for those competing within this group for a permit, or waiting for this group to pass on. But the model predicted fewer participants in the next point classes, 2311 for 8 thru 12 and 2130 for 3 thru 7, versus actual numbers of 2376 and 2182 for each class respectively. This means that the median number of years required to draw a permit will probably increase by at least a year for those who had 12 points and under going into the 2012 draw (now 13 and under for 2013).

The conclusion remains that the large majority of those 5935 participants with 12 or fewer non-res bighorn points going into 2012 will not draw a permit within their "hunting lifetime"... unless attrition rates in the future pick up considerably from those observed over recent years, including 2012.

HT

 

[30Hart]

Can't wait for this year's model...we really appreciate you doing this...it gives us hope we may eventually draw at the higher point classes, thanks.

 

[HornedToad]

I have updated my model to predict the median year each point class could expect to draw a non-resident bighorn permit in the future years draw.

Listed below are (A) Number of Preference Points, (B) Number of Non-Res. Sportspersons, (C) Predicted Median Year to Draw, and (D) change from prediction of previous year:

(A) (B) (C) (D)

01 1104 2047 na
02 802 2045 (0)
03 575 2043 (0)
04 468 2041 (0)
05 477 2039 (0)
06 463 2038 (0)
07 388 2036 (0)
08 386 2035 (+1))
09 453 2033 (+1)
10 501 2029 (+1)
11 502 2027 (+2)
12 466 2024 (+1)
13 454 2022 (+2)
14 151 2019 (+1)
15 133 2017 (+1)
16 98 2016 (+1)
17 85 2015 (+1)
18 22 2014 (+1)

The Median Year can be thought of as the average year in which a person in a given PP class could expect to draw. Half would draw before the median while half would draw after. In general, those drawing earlier than the median will be applying in secondary (or less in demand) units, while those drawing later will be applying in primary (or most in demand) units.

The Predicted Median Year to Draw is based on a model that includes a number of assumptions, including (a) that the number of permits offered in the Non-Resident preference point draw remains constant at the current level, and (b) the annual attrition rate in each PP class (those dropping out of the draw) remains consistent with the average of the previous three years. Obviously, if either of these assumptions are off, the predicted years to draw would change measurably.

The annual attrition rates assumed in the above model remain significant. For example, the attrition rate for the top five point classes (14 thru 18) averaged 5.8% annually over the past three years, while for the second cohort (9 thru 13) the average was only slightly higher at 5.9%, and for the lowest point classes (3 thru 8) the average was 12.0%. Continuation of these attrition rates implies that most sportspersons holding 13 or fewer points will eventually drop out of the process before drawing a permit. For example, of the 489 persons holding 14 to 18 points, the model predicts that 359 will eventually draw permits, while 130 will drop out. For the 2376 holding 9 to 13 points, 632 will draw permits while 1744 will drop out. Sheep hunters are an optimist lot.

The MAX PP class, holding 18 points going into the 2013 draw, has been reduced to 22. There were 27 MAX point holders going into the 2012 draw. Of these, only 6 applied for a permit, with 3 being selected. Two dropped out. At this rate, it could take another five to six years before all of the MAX point holders are eliminated, with most of the current permits being drawn by those holding MAX-1 and MAX-2 points, or 16 and 15 points, in 2012, drawing 35 permits of the 50 available. Clearly, the ability to continue drawing preference points (presumably, as long is one is alive to do so) illustrates the difficulty of predicting the year in which any one PP class "clears out" to make way for those following. Clearly, there will be a great deal of overlap in the draw schedules of the various point classes.

Good luck to all in the 2013 Draw.

Horned Toad

 

[BuzzH]

What happens with your model when a Wyoming resident with max or near max points move to another state and enter the draws as a non resident?

 

[HornedToad]

I don't know how that could be tracked. It certainly is an issue, as a Wyoming resident could accummulate sheep points for years at $7 a pop, and then transfer residency to another state and compete against non-residents who have paid $100 a point.

The annual attrition is what it is, a net result that includes a number of factors, such as the two-year wait of non-applying before one is dropped from the records, the "moving-down" of applicants who miss a year of applying but then re-enter the process, transfers from resident to non-resident status, and other factors. Since the attrition assumption is an estimate, based on past years experience, it includes all of the above factors. It is not a calculated amount.

 

[30Hart]

Thanks Horned Toad! Good information!

 

[littlebighorn]

"You da Man" again professor HT!
You continue to blow my mind with your model.

I am also confident that this is your year...I mean Elmer got his tag this year, so you have to be next.

It is always interesting and entertaining to see the possibilities, given my son is in the 13pt pool. He definitely will have the time to draw a tag, as long as he can persist in playing the point game. I have floated him the C-note every year, hoping that he will draw before I am too old to accompany him. So far that has been good incentive for me to stay fit, but he best be one of the first in his pool and not the last, for my sake

Thanks again for your analysis.

 

[Zeke]

I'd pay a bucket of money (my buckets are much smaller nowadays) for 1 more PP so I could get above the masses.

I WILL draw a sheep tag. My only hope is by then I can do more with it than frame it and put it on the wall!

Thanks Mr HT for always bringing us hope/despair depending on our personal PP class.

Zeke

PS: all you guys with >14 might as well drop out since you will eventually do so anyway! haha

 

[sticksender]

I'm one of those in the mid-range point group who won't drop out until I'm dead. The only way to draw a tag is to apply, mainly in hopes for a random tag. Of course mathematically it's unlikely to ever draw. But individually as a bighorn state, Wyoming is like every other state where I apply....each representing only a small piece of the overall application strategy. For those like myself who wish to hunt a Bighorn ram unguided, we must apply in Wyoming and every other western state which offers tags. It would probably be cheaper overall to purchase a hunt in Canada. But you can't hunt there on your own. BTW great info HT.

 

[440sixpack]

Good work Toad, I follow anything on this I can find. at age 50 with 15 NR points I'm not holding out for a top unit I want to hunt sooner than later. sheep country is no place for old men.

Don't you think the top point holders dropping out will increase simply due to the age demograhic? let's face it when this started you had to send the eentire tag fee in and not that many young guys did that back then. I figure units like 5 will only get harder to draw as the older higher point hoders get backed into a situation they have to have an easy hunt. and how many already can't hunt they just won't give up, I'm sure some have other reasons to not apply in the draw but an older guy who could draw but they want to get older first doesn't line up to me.









Stay thirsty my friends

 

[ElmerFudd]

A 50 year old when points started would be pushing 70 now. I would think less than half of those around that age took care of themselves well enough and had enough luck to still be able to enjoy a sheep hunt. Add 10 years and you are looking at the truely lucky few who could still do it at 80. I think age is a big part of the current attrition seen in the upper pools, but will be sort of constant fof a while. I'm thinking age will play a bigger part in the lower pools.

 

[LIK2HNT]

Thanks HT for the great info.
You guys make is seem dismal for someone who is a few months short of 50 and sitting on 13 points. Guess I will just have to keep in shape and keep my fingers crossed. Hopefully at 60 to 65 I will still be able to hunt DIY. But then again my 12 year old son will be in his mid 20's. Maybe he will remmber all the hunts I took him on and help me out.

It is amazing how you can be sitting on alot of points for other species and still have many years to go to get a good to great tag. Low odds have always been the name of the game for sheep, but I thought some of the other species would turn over quicker. I am worried that my Son & Daughter will never get enough points to draw good hunts.

Bill

 

[Bill_in_MI]

Great info!

Any chance you have the depressing numbers on the NR moose situation?

 

[HornedToad]

No, I don't have a moose model. I pulled the ripcord years ago on a Unit 5 moose tag and got a nice bull north of Pinedale, WY. Even then, the locals were saying that the area moose population was way down because of wolves dispersing from Yellowstone. Whatever the reason, I hunted long and hard to find my bull, and did not see many moose of any kind. Perhaps the new wolf hunting season will begin the process of restoring some balance to the moose/wolf population dynamic in Wyoming.