wyoming sheep draw

mdbrown

mdbrown

Long Time Member
Messages
664
to me,it doesnt seem fair ,the preference point system, for everyone but the top point holders. someone that started buying points say 5 years or so after the point system started will always be in the random draw at with about less than 1% odds. im sure i would have a different feeling if i had max points, but to me it doesnt seem fair {of course it isnt fair to change the draw process for the top pint holders either} i applyed for 4 years then started thinking about this so i quit applying. any ideas on how to fix this?
 
This matter has already been "fixed" once. When Wyoming implemented the Preference Points (PP) system for sheep in 1995, the initial plan was to allocate 100% of the permits to the PP draw. This was done for several years. The "fix" implemented later was to allocate 25% of the permits to the Random draw, thus giving all applicants some chance to draw, while retaining 75% for the PP draw.

I had 14 PP going into the 2010 draw, and now have 15. IMO, the "least fair" approach would be to change the system again in any manner that devalued the substantial investment made by many over the years in Wyoming preference points.

HT
 
I have to agree with HT. If you look at the odds of drawing in the random draw, they are about as good as you can expect anywhere else for a Rocky tag unless you got in on the point system. The fact is sheep tags are very rare and everyone wants one. Even in Wyoming, you have a chance to draw one if you don't have any points. I know one guy who drew a second Wyoming sheep tag the year after he passed the waiting period, with no preference points. While that is very lucky, it still happens. And for guys like HT who have been patiently waiting, it will eventually happen for them as well. Anyway, good luck to everyone who is willing to keep trying, and when you do draw, thank your lucky stars and make the best of it! IMHO
 
IMO Wyoming has the best system because it gives everyone a chance while staying true to the PP system originally implemented.As a non max point guy I still have a better chance in WY that in the other states.
 
LAST EDITED ON May-06-10 AT 08:56AM (MST)[p]I don't think any system that locks out all but first in for life is fair. It's not that bad for nonresident sheep and moose in WY only because the current tag numbers in comparison to applicants do realitiically give a guy starting out a tag sometime if he isn't too old to start. Many good (wilderness) units were nearly assured for the -1 pool, and more -2 applicants will be getting tags next year. The pools are turning over because of WY's relatively generous nonresident sheep tag numbers. Now, it would totally be wrong in states with tag demand suuch that it locks everyone else out for life. It is what it is. I'm at 15 points now, but will wait for the unit I want. I want to DIY, and the wilderness rule....
 
The system works great, every year people drop out miss a point or decide the system sucks and go elsewhere the guys that stick with it will eventually draw, moose depending on which area you want as a resident you can draw in 10 years, before the points system my grandfather drew 1 tag in 30 years while his son drew 3 tags in 15 years there is no way to make everyone happy somebody is always going to be upset but persistance in the tag game does pay off.
 
im not trying to start an argument , maybe someone could explain it to me. {perhaps if you typed realy slow i'd get it.ha ha }i agree it seems like the moose draw seems to work, if your serious about a tag and keep getting points. after this year i will have 7 moose points so in about 2-3 years i better buy a bigger freezer. unless there is point creep . i added up the non res p-point holders for sheep with 7 plus points. 3119 i dont see how that any one with less than 10 points right now will ever get out of the random drawing. there are 1289 with 10 points plus}
 
mdbrown,

I think you have figured it out. Point systems will ruin hunting for the younger generations. How do you keep a young one interested in hunting when they are basically (for all intensive purposes) eliminated from the top-tiered public land hunts in the West? I don't care how long your child may live to be because some of these draws have several hundred years of points back-logged.

Point systems are basically legal pyramid schemes. They create two classes of hunters: those in the game & those on the outside looking in. It is statistically impossible to improve the odds for everyone. The problem is you cannot put the genie back into the bottle. People are so emotionally (and financially) tied to their points, that nobody would be willing to give them up. Most importantly, the Game and Fish Departments have figured out they can make more money from the sale of $100 and $75 preference points than from the licenses sold. We, hunters, have taken the bait hook, line, and sinker.

Really a sad and short-sighted deal when you look to the younger generation. The only "fair" way to allocate high demand licenses is through a random draw.
 
Take CA as the worst example of points unfairness...3000+ max points sheep applicants with exclusive rights to most of the tags, and maybe ten getting pulled out every year..A 300 year logjam at the top! The only way someone with less than max can get those preference tags is to outlive everyone ahead...Virtually a lockout for life if you are only one behind.

With WY, at least it is a stack that will realistically clear out sometime in your lifetime.
 
LAST EDITED ON May-06-10 AT 10:07PM (MST)[p]>Point systems will
>ruin hunting for the younger
>generations. How do you
>keep a young one interested
>in hunting when they are
>basically (for all intensive purposes)
>eliminated from the top-tiered public
>land hunts in the West?

That's B.S and one the lamest arguments I continue to hear about not being able to get kids into hunting. The fact is, out west as you reference, youth continue to have access to quality antelope, deer, and elk hunting. If they can't draw a bull elk tag, there are always plenty of left over cow and doe tags. There are also numerous opportunities for waterfowl, upland game, turkey, small game and predators. If you can't get a kid hooked on hunting with all of the stuff out there, the kid was never gonna get hooked even if you would've handed him a sheep or moose tag...
 
There are no states I am aware of where only the max point holders have a chance to draw.WY and CA are the only true preference point states but WY has a liberal (25%) number of tags that go in the random draw.Even in CA the regs were changed to give non max point holders a chance(but heck there are only a handful of tags anyway.) I can see a little whining when talking about elk and deer draws but since there are so few sheep the options are:1)pure preference point system, 2)modified bonus/preference point system (most common) or 3)random draw (2nd most common) every year.

So what the heck do you guys propose to make it better? There ain't enough moose,sheep, and goats to go around.So not many are going to get to hunt them period-adults,youth,or Martians.That's just a fact that must be lived with. The G&F Depts can't manufacture them-they gotta grow them with our help.
 
There is absolutely no rational justification for ANY of the points systems. Random draw every year is the only really American way to distibute these tags. Everbody who wants to can appl;y each year, and an honest draw is fair for everyone. Some will be "luckier" than others, and some will make their own luck by applying religiously in multiple states.

Yes, point systems are a way for states to make more money, without issuing more tags. Not a very good justification. Even with all the great work of FNAWS, etc., you will never grow the sheep populations anywhere near large enough to meet demand. Absurd.

Lest anyone misinterpret my post, I have played the points game in many states, and even have drawn a decent number of great tags over the years. I still have 18 points in CO, 15 sheep points in WY, and so many points in other states it is hard to keep track. I advocate every year for the overthrow of points systems, but as long as the rules are in place I will play the game.

The Ponzi scheme of Points will ultimately come crashing down, as it is clearly unsustainable in the long run.

Bill
 
Won't happen in Wyoming unless you can get the legislature and governor to change the current law. They'll be reluctant to do anything as long as you have a bunch of us who support PP's and a few of us who send them campaign contributions from time to time...
 
Nothing ever stays the same....You have to figure on something changing sometime, and figure any long term investment in a points system carries some risk of getting nothing for your investment.

More than just the draw system changing, there could be a change in nonresident tag allocation (WY is 25%, most other states 10%)...that could change a sure deal sometime to a lockout for life...There could be a dieoff in the unit most of the high points applicants are holding out for (unit 10 across the highway had one not too many years ago...), making the wait longer than an average lifespan...

Preference is cool when the ratio of tags to applicants is such that an applicant just entering can expect a tag sometime. If numbers are such that it's a maybe thing in your life and a lockout for life for all but the top pool for most of the tags...Preference is totally unfair.
 
I told you so...WY is sending out a survey to change randomsheep/moose to 50%, not 25% and reduce nonresident quota to 10% like everywhere else. Check out the post in the WY section...

If they do both, makes preference points pretty worthless to nonresidents not at/near the top of the sheep pool...the wait to clear pools will surpass a person's lifetime. I might be looking at another 20 years with 15 points now:)
 
The survey only asked about changing the moose/sheep split between preference deaw vs random draw from 75/25 to 50/50. It did not propose to reduce the reduce the split between residents vs nonresidents from 20% to 10% of available tags. I got the survey and have it in front of me.

from the "Heartland of Wyoming"
 
My bad. I read the post wrong.

10% would be in line with other states, but would be brutal to a nonresident who wanted to hunt sheep DIY in WY...there wouldn't be many tags for the few units with good numbers of sheep outside the wilderness. If they change to 10% like everyone else, get rid of the guide in wilderness law like everyone else too:)
 
I don't really know why they are bothering with a survey-of course the results will be overwhelmingly in favor since most are not at the top of the PP pool.

My belief is they want to maintain/increase # of applicants for $$ reasons.More random tags means more participation. The survey is just for political cover.

More random tags will be good for me with 9 PP but it certainly does devalue PPs that many have taken years to accumulate.I can see why they would be upset and feel betrayed.
 
It would be best if they change to what their best guess is to a sysyem that keeps most happy (tough when demand so far exceeds supply) soon. There hasn't been too many years of $75 (moose) & $100 (sheep) gouges yet. The more money and years an applicant invests into a system, the more he will be upset that his investment is taken away/devalued...
 
This proposal is the next step in the evolution of WY from a Pref Point state to a bonus point state. In my opinion, in a few years they will realize that this proposal will devalue Pref Points. They will send out a survey again and swap every Pref Point people have for a Bonus point. Mark my words...you heard it here first.

Darw while you can top PP holders!

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
One thing is as sure as death and taxes: The point system you originally bought into will not be the same one you have today. These systems almost always de-value the points that an applicant has accumulated when the change occurs.

Yet, after all the all the facts are laid out, there are still people urging that more draws need to go to a points system.
 
LAST EDITED ON May-17-10 AT 09:54AM (MST)[p]MNHunter - Do you believe that Wyoming will be able to sell bonus points for $100 a pop? Neither do I.

So you must believe that Wyoming would be willing to kiss off the $$$$ it receives from the sale of preference points, just to appease those who have chosen not put in their time in the Wyoming draw. I don't believe that.

Preference points have real value, in that, given enough time, they lead to a certain draw. Bonus points, which provide no certainty of ever drawing, have much less value.

IMO, Wyoming will listen to the complaints, but, in this budget stressed environment, will stick with the current revenue-generating system.
 
HT,
Yes, I do believe they will still get their $100. They don't give you a choice now so why would they give you a choice when they rename them? In fact, I think they'll get more people to pay than they do now. It will be a lot easier to say, "yes, you pay $100 but you get your name in the hat one more time for each BP you have" vs now where PPs do absolutely nothing for the vast majority and probably never will. They may not even rename them?SD calls their system Preference Points but when pressed they will admit they are nothing but Bonus Points. I personally do not think WY will loose their gravy train with what my theory. Good luck in the draw next year, I know you are a max-1 so I hope you draw soon.

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
Horned Toad I do not agree that WY PP's have much value at this point except for those that are close to the top of the PP pool.You are the guru and know that better than anyone-you have proven it to me on here several times.I believe guys are paying the $$$ because WY's 25% allocation of tags makes their random draw attractive-certainly better odds than the other states unless you have very high bonus points in those states.WY believes increasing the tags in the random draw pool will lead to more apps and more revenue. I tend to agree with them.WY has a high enough # of sheep tags to make a random draw pretty attractive relative to other states with far fewer tags.

I think I am a good example. I had 8 NR PPs going into this year's draw. There are thousands ahead of me so a PP draw one day for me is a pipe dream.Yet I still apply every year because of the random draw-this year in Area 4 my odds were pretty good (relatively speaking of course). Increasing those odds will only increase participation.
 
Of course the net result will more than likely be random draw odds that are similar or perhaps even higher because of the increased participation. But WY will have more $$ in their pocket and that is the true driving force behind the changes.
 
LAST EDITED ON May-18-10 AT 08:37PM (MST)[p]Point systems are like that hot girl that everyone loves in high school, but turns out to be the fat chick in sweats at the 10 year reunion.
 
Sometimes she gets even hotter at that 10 or 15 year reunion and you get that tag! That's why we particiipate. $100 a year is way too much though!
 
>LAST EDITED ON May-18-10
>AT 08:37?PM (MST)
>
>Point systems are like that hot
>girl that everyone loves in
>high school, but turns out
>to be the fat chick
>in sweats at the 10
>year reunion.

Best comment yet!

flyingbrass
cold dead hands
NRA Life Member
 
Sitting at 9 Sheep points in Wyoming and wondering why I should buy another point? I guess the reason is because I am in my early thirties and I will get a chance sometime in the future, $100 per year at 30 years though is a lot of money!

My proposal and what I would like to see implemented, not sure if anyone is listening to a non-resident from Virginia though:

1. Change the 75% to top points to 50% of available tags.
2. Take those 25% of tags and a give each applicant with bonus points another ticket in the raffle for each bonus point.
3. Keep the 25% totally random.

* When rounding tag divisions always favor 1, 2 and then 3.

This seems like it would be appealing to everyone except those with the max points or near max points. This might keep that big bunch buying points with 9 points willing to stay in the game.

Any thoughts?
 
I say your proposal is a crock of $hit. BTW, I'm a WY resident.

Theres a questionaire out right now that the WYG&F is seeking comments for. Real similar to what you've proposed.

Their proposal is to limit NR tags to 10% of the quotas down from 20% for moose and 25% for sheep. They also want to split the random/preference to 50-50 like you want.

If we were starting a system today with everyone being equal, your idea and the WYG&F idea may not be a bad thing.

However, the problems I have are as follows:

1. We're already 15 years into the current system. Many hunters have been applying faithfully for 15 years, spending the money, keeping track of draw dates, etc. They started the system under one set of rules...and now they're being asked to give up their improved odds at a tag so some Johnny-come-lately can have a better chance. Thats pure crap, wait your turn in line or gamble on the random draw.

2. By reducing the number of NR permits to 10% of the quota, there will be a financial hit to the G&F. This is 100% a resident whining-fest of epic proportions. I've already heard residents whining that Non-Residents have "better draw odds than I do". Yeah, well, NR's pay a whole lot more for the opportunity, both in license fees and for preference points. If the NR's alotment of tags is reduced by 15%, I will be drafting letters to the WY legislature, the WY G&F, and also WYG&F commission to increase Resident fees to compensate for the lost revenue because of the lower NR quotas. If Wyoming residents want to be selfish with tags, they should be forced to come up with the shortfall in revenue.

I can tell you who's behind this crap...its the resident hunters that drew moose and sheep tags early in the current system. They're realizing, after looking at the draw odds and the number of points(years) it will take to ever draw again. They realize they're pretty well @#$%ed at ever drawing again. The only way they can increase their chances to draw ANOTHER tag is to get more tags moved from the preference draw to the random.

IMO, sheep and bull moose in Wyoming should be once-in-a-lifetime. That would end this type of crap from happening, which is allowing those that have already had a chance at sheep and moose to change the rules so they can get ANOTHER one, while others are still waiting for their first chance.

The only thing I hate more than point/preference systems is when the rules change half-way through.
 
My thoughts are that my proposal of 50% (preference)- 25% (bonus)- 25% (random) is much better for those that have been in the system for a long time than the 50-50 split is with the 50% being totally random and not based on bonus points. With 25% based on bonus points, odds are those with the most points will get a higher percentage of the tags and those just below max will have their odds upped and might stay in the preference point game. I respect your comments especially coming from a WY resident with regards to the NR/Resident split. I think Wyoming is the best state for a non-resident to hunt in with regards to opportunity at so many species and public land to hunt on even without being able to hunt wilderness.

I also hate when systems are changed, but Wyoming has to do something with regards to sheep tags for non-residents as there is not an incentive for anyone to buy points now and they are going to start to lose revenue from people dropping out of the game. If you are stuck at 7 or 8 points, there is really no reason to continue as your odds won't really increase, just apply in the random draw when you can.
 
The fallacy in your argument about maximizing revenues on points (and everyone of these "how will the kids ever learn to hunt, if they can't draw a bighorn sheep tag"), is that it assumes that everyone in the current applicant pool stays in to the bitter end. The fact is, there is already a significant attrition underway, particularly among those "$7 point accumulators" who were never serious sheep or moose hunters to begin with, but just began buying points because WY had mispriced them too low. And the accelaration of attrition due to onset of the economic downturn in 2008 will only become apparent at the end of this year. It simply is unreasonable to expect that every current point holder will remain in the draw up until the day they die. Believe me, some will drop out on their own before nature takes them out of the game.

And this argument by residents that their draw odds are worse than non-residents is really insulting. Back in the day when non-res had to pony up several thousand dollars to apply for sheep and moose, while residents were only putting in a few bucks, there absolutely were many fewer non-residents applying. The $ discrepancy occurs to this day, and is the overwhelming reason for the difference in draw odds. If WY residents want to improve their draw odds, let them do it by increasing the cost of the resident applications, rather than taking it out of the hides of the non-residents who have invested 15 years or more in WY's current system.

I really believe the argument put forth that some WY residents want to change the system because they want multiple opportunities to hunt bighorn sheep and moose before others have even a single chance is on target. Anything WY does to decrease the certainty of eventually drawing a tag through the preference point system will simply devalue the points. A "fair value" of $7 may be what they'll get again someday.

HT
 
I think we are somewhat agreeing here. Those $7 point buyers (myself included) are going to start dropping out because they are seeing it is not worth it to pay $100. Sure there has been many that have dropped out, but I thought it would have been a lot more than it has for that big bunch with 8 or 9 points who only got in the game when it was cheap. I was really excited when the $100 point was implemented, I thought it meant I was going sheep hunting in 10 years, not 30.

The whole question is will the system balance out in the future with supply and demand with the cost set at $100 and will the game comission start losing money on these high end points. It is a sort of a catch 22, if not many apply it will be worth it to stay in the game, but if not many apply the system will be changed to make more money...

They never should have set points so cheap, what were they thinking?

I've dreamt of hunting Bighorns in Wyoming since I was a little kid reading Jack O'Connor books and flipping through my Dad's photo albums of his sheep hunts in WY (He drew back to back year's in the early 80s and harvested a great ram on his 2nd hunt, didn't see a good one on his first hunt). I'm sticking with it, but I am definitely watching how many drop out. I just wish I would have got in the game a few years earlier.
 
I was one of the residents who got the survey. FYI..the survey, I got, made no mention of reducing the NR % of sheep and moose licenses from 25 to 10%. I only asked about changing the 75/25 split to 50/50 and a waiting period for E/D/A.

from the "Heartland of Wyoming"
 
kilbuc,

Well, apparently they are sending out different surveys to NR's or you forgot to read the second page.

I helped my Dad fill his survey out and one of the questions was about reducing the percentages to 10% for both sheep and moose.

I think these preference/bonus systems are a joke and I wish they didnt exist. The only "system" I'm in favor of for Moose, Sheep, and Goat...is one harvest per lifetime. If you dont harvest, a 5 year waiting period before you can apply again would also be a good thing.

The exact reason why I dont like point systems is because of crap just like this. Whiners want to change the systems because they dont want to wait their turn, they dont want to pay the $$$ to play, realize they'll be in the back of the line after drawing their first tag, etc. etc. etc.

I can assure you that some Residents in Wyoming have the ear of the Director or a member of the commission. They're wanting to "make the system more fair" because they've already killed a sheep and/or moose and want a 50/50 split for the tags.

They all thought it was a great system when it benefited them, when they were in the top tier of point holders, but now, they dont like it because they're at the back of the line.

We're seeing the whining now...just look at this thread, "I wish I would have gotten in sooner...but I didnt, so lets change the rules".

That is pure BS...and for the record, I'm 3 years off max points and a system that sent more tags to the random draw would benefit me greatly. However, theres times you have to put aside your selfish interests to maintain the fairness of the system that we've all lived under for 15 years.

These point systems and wanting to change them every few years are completely out of hand.
 
Here, here... I agree they should raise the price of resident tags as a trade off for lower non resident quota's. All of them. What's a reasonable number: double, triple, quadruple. I just got an $1800 check back for Colorado moose. I could use it for elk or deer since I'll probably never draw a moose tag. Wouldn't mind pricing a few fellow resi's out of the game if that'll improve my odds. Although what ya gonna do when the resi income starts tanking after folks get sick of paying and don't want to play the game anymore. Uh-o, here we go again...
 
Maybe I didn't read mine carefully enough but I didn't see anything about reducing NR tags to 10% either. I am a NR-I believe that would be a huge mistake as one reason WY's NR participation is so high is because of the 25% tag allocation.
 
One thing for sure, somebody's getting screwed no matter what they do. The applicants who already drew were the big winners at the expense of all below. I don't feel a bit bad for the points only pack who started with the $7 point...But what about the guys applying seriously for almost as long as the top guys? Many might have drawn by now had the system not kept most of the tags from them...Yet they still stuck with it...But keeping it as does the same to those below them...

The 10% nonresident cap is consistent with most other states, but no other state has the guide welfare wilderness rule...Really, the percentage of tags available in WY to nonresidents wanting to hunt on their own is far less than most states.

I really do hope to draw before they change, but what do you do? If they do cut the nonresident %, they should up resident prices and ax the guide welfare. And I totally see scrapping points as fair in the long run and wish they never started. Hell, there's a good chance I would have a tag by now with 16 attempts at 4X the tags I applied for...I'll never know...
 
Did this issue ever get decided upon in Wyoming or has it come to vote yet? It has just been in the back of my mind since I just shelled out 175 bucks in preference points. I searched the Wyo G&F website and couldn't find anything just wondering if I should keep supplying the money pit.
 
SB
Good question. I don't know the answer either. You should start a new thread.

Wyo sent out a document asking hunters to reply on the bonus pt system but I have no idea where it's gone from there.
I too just shell out big buck to stay in the point pool. If I added the money that all my 5 kids spent to play it would be a huge figure.

My hope is that some will be too broke, angry or discouraged to apply or buy points. This will make our chances better.

I should have a moose tag next year and a sheep tag in 347 years so I'll keep sending them my money. (I'll be 414 years old when I finally draw for sheep but it's my own fault for missing a few applications!)

If someone knows of the plans to devalue the points please pipe off! (if they do, I want my money back. haha)

Zeke
 

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