At What Point Is A Tag No Longer An Opportunity?

Tristate

Tristate

Long Time Member
Messages
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Here are some real questions for the hunters here. I really want to see some real answers.

1. If you draw a deer tag, at what percentage of success would you say a unit has been managed poorly for opportunity?

2. Do you consider a tag that you may not ever draw in your lifetime an opportunity?

3. If you draw a tag that is in a unit that no mature bucks get killed out of (6+ years of age) do you consider that tag an opportunity?

4. If the DWR sees that a unit has a lower percentage kill rate but keeps the number of tags the same for the next year, do you feel the opportunity is the same?

5.Do you feel like opportunity to hunt is more important than health of the deer herd?

6. Do you feel like there is a direct relationship between healthy deer herds and Opportunity?


I am asking you to answer each question first clearly and then below your answers, comment. I am hoping this will prevent miscommunication or misunderstandings.
 
1. I would personally say a rough 40-50% success rate is a successfully managed unit (of healthy mature animals, not year Olds every year)

2. I don't consider a tag that takes 25+ years to draw as an opportunity.

3. No, I see that as a OTC unit. Sure there is opportunity to harvest, but little to no opportunity for anything of quality.

4. Depends on if the unit has ever produced good success rates. If no, then yeah it's still an opportunity, if yes then something needs changed.

5. NO!!!! Healthy herds are more important than letting everyone hunt. If a unit is suffering, then lower the tag numbers and help the herd, then once numbers are back up, give back to the hunters.

6. Absolutely. The more animals, the higher the chances of success. Less animals means less opportunity. Create healthy herd, you create more opportunity.
 
1. % success is often more about the unit than the herd. Hard terrain, low population(a healthy herd isn't always dense, healthy is determined by carrying capacity of the land too), and hunter willingness to pass on smaller animals(you might pass a 180 deer in one unit and not another).

2. No. It's a lottery ticket. Go hunt where you know you can.

3. Yes. There are mature bucks in every unit, go find them.

4. Again too many factors on "kill rate" to say.

5. Define health of the herd. Very subjective.

6. Define opportunity.
 
1. Everybody has an opportunity that draws a tag. Hunting skills vary greatly and can’t be truly calculated from year to year.
2. All I ask for is an opportunity, if I don’t draw I didn’t get an opportunity to hunt.
3. If I draw a tag, I have an opportunity to harvest a deer.
4. The opportunity is the same for me if I draw regardless of numbers.
5. Without a healthy deer heard i do not have the opportunity to hunt. We have trained paid professionals to determine this.
6. The more healthy the deer herds are the more opportunity for everybody as your chances of drawing would increase as they raised tag limits.

Opportunity: a set of circumstances that makes it possible to do something.
 
1. Stupid question, success rates depend on the hunter, not the animal. An archery tag on the Pauns, has lower success than rifle on the Nebo, and no one would say the herd on the Nebo is "more healthy

2. No. It's a chance. There is a long list of tags I will never draw, from sheep, goat, bison, etc. But it is an opportunity for someone.

3. Yes. Again, success rates also include hunter weapon type and terrain. Archery units in wide open desert, will have bad success rates, regardless of buck age.

4. Yes. More deer are born yearly. Age classes can be hit hard be extenuating circumstances (weather specifically) that can leave certain age buck numbers lacking.

5. Deer herd health isn't dictated by hunting. Example Antelope Island. 100% success rate, year after year, regardless of herd health, population numbers, buck:doe, etc.

6. Stupid question. What is "herd health"? What is opportunity? Can you archery hunt a weaker herd, yes. Can you rifle rut hunt it,? No.
 
1. The vast majority of my deer hunting is in CA for blacktails in the NW corner of the state. (B Zones) There are 35,000 OTC tags available, and they sell out every year. Success rate runs about 10-15%. Still a great opportunity in my mind. If there is a season and a tag, there is hope.
2. I May draw that tag someday, so it's an opportunity.
3. Yes, but there are always mature blacktails around. You'll see one if he decides to let you.
4. No, CA would sell 35,000 tags if blacktails were extinct.
5. Yes, and all 35,000 of us feel the same way. If I saw one deer last year, I'll buy a tag this year.
6. There should be but that's not always the case.
 
1. I never base my expectations on the published success rates. I base my expectation on my preparedness. If I put in for the tag it is because I had a desire to hunt the unit come what may. That is opportunity.


2-6: my answer is yes with exception of number 5 which is a no.
I have always been of the mindset the tag is my entry fee. After that it is up to me. if I am interested as long as there are tags I’ll anty up hoping my entry is granted. My opportunity is only defined by me.
I have actually held tags and not even hunted the unit/specie because IMO they didn’t need the pressure. These decisions have been made post tag purchase.

I spent a good amount of time petitioning for new hunts with tags. Not because I thought they would result in kills. It was because I believed there was an under utilized opportunity.
 
1. 30%.
2. No, an OIL tag is a sweet bonus.
3. Yes.
4. Yes.
5. Tricky question.
6. Yes, the two should be related.
 
Tristate said:
Here are some real questions for the hunters here. I really want to see some real answers.

1. If you draw a deer tag, at what percentage of success would you say a unit has been managed poorly for opportunity?

2. Do you consider a tag that you may not ever draw in your lifetime an opportunity?

3. If you draw a tag that is in a unit that no mature bucks get killed out of (6+ years of age) do you consider that tag an opportunity?

4. If the DWR sees that a unit has a lower percentage kill rate but keeps the number of tags the same for the next year, do you feel the opportunity is the same?

5.Do you feel like opportunity to hunt is more important than health of the deer herd?

6. Do you feel like there is a direct relationship between healthy deer herds and Opportunity?


I am asking you to answer each question first clearly and then below your answers, comment. I am hoping this will prevent miscommunication or misunderstandings.
Click to expand...
1) anything less than 20%
2) yes as long as there is a chance to draw it every year
3) yes
4) yes
5) no
6) yes. Distant relationships are still relationships
 
7. If you purchase a tag in a unit that has 300 tags one year and the harvest rate is %25, and 10 years later you purchase a tag in the same unit , but only 200 tags, and the harvest rate is %90, has opportunity increased or decreased?
 
Only folks who obsess with success rates are dudes paying an outfitter for them.

The rest of the hunting world, just wants the chance. We will let our skill/ luck account for success.
 
Tristate said:
7. If you purchase a tag in a unit that has 300 tags one year and the harvest rate is %25, and 10 years later you purchase a tag in the same unit , but only 200 tags, and the harvest rate is %90, has opportunity increased or decreased?
Click to expand...

Opportunity both decreased and increased. Decrease in the ability to go or not based on whether you were at the beginning of the license line or the end before they sold out. Increased opportunity, or ability, to fill your tag.
 
roadrunner said:
Opportunity both decreased and increased. Decrease in the ability to go or not based on whether you were at the beginning of the license line or the end before they sold out. Increased opportunity, or ability, to fill your tag.
Click to expand...
Maybe I’m not reading it right, to me if you’ve purchased a tag then you are going to get to hunt. Am I correct?
 
Opportunity to do what? Hunt? Harvest? Harvest a deer of a certain age? Harvest a deer of a certain score? Fill the freezer?

Most 90% units I've seen are meat hunts with little real opportunity at large or old bucks. There are units that could easily achieve 90% harvest that get half of that because they have the genetics and herd quality to prompt guys to eat tag soup.
 
idahomuleyhunter said:
Opportunity to do what? Hunt? Harvest? Harvest a deer of a certain age? Harvest a deer of a certain score? Fill the freezer?

Most 90% units I've seen are meat hunts with little real opportunity at large or old bucks. There are units that could easily achieve 90% harvest that get half of that because they have the genetics and herd quality to prompt guys to eat tag soup.
Click to expand...


Consider the OP, and the answer to the questions are easy.
 
Tristate said:
7. If you purchase a tag in a unit that has 300 tags one year and the harvest rate is %25, and 10 years later you purchase a tag in the same unit , but only 200 tags, and the harvest rate is %90, has opportunity increased or decreased?
Click to expand...
If there's a unit that has a 90% chance of success, a lot of people will give up the opportunity to hunt for many years for a chance of drawing that tag. And some people will not risk the opportunity to hunt every year for a chance at drawing that tag, if only given the two choices. Opportunity and success are defined on a personal level.
 
Tristate said:
8. At what percentage of success, do you consider hunting deer no longer an opportunity in a unit?
Click to expand...
Some of the late season muzzleloader hunts in Utah have had years with 0% success with only 5 tags. Even at 0% success the 5 people all had a great opportunity. There are way to many factors that go into these questions you are asking.
 
somedaya200 said:
Some of the late season muzzleloader hunts in Utah have had years with 0% success with only 5 tags. Even at 0% success the 5 people all had a great opportunity. There are way to many factors that go into these questions you are asking.
Click to expand...
Welcome to monstermuleys
 
hossblur said:
Only folks who obsess with success rates are dudes paying an outfitter for them.

The rest of the hunting world, just wants the chance. We will let our skill/ luck account for success.
Click to expand...

That is simply not true. The truth is you hunt to fill a tag, to be successful. Be honest, otherwise you wouldn't go with a bow or rifle, you'd go with a camera for a close up...
 
roadrunner said:
That is simply not true. The truth is you hunt to fill a tag, to be successful. Be honest, otherwise you wouldn't go with a bow or rifle, you'd go with a camera for a close up...
Click to expand...


So you always hunt the highest success rate units?

If not, you disproved your own point
 
I like diversity in the kinds of units a state manages for. Different people have different preferences, opinions and standards for what they consider a reasonable hunt/opportunity. Personally, I like to spend time out hunting so much that I would rather hunt more often on units with lower success rates and lower trophy quality than hunt less frequently on units with high success rates and more trophy quality.

I always feel like my chances are better when I have a tag in my pocket and I'm out hunting, than if I'm sitting at home wishing I had a tag. Even on a crummy unit, lightening strikes once in a while. It reminds me of the scene in dumb and dumber "so you're telling me there's a chance". Also, I can hunt hard and not kill or only kill a small/medium sized animal and be totally happy.

I realize that not everyone feels the same way I do. There are a lot of guys, especially on this site, that die a little inside when someone shoots a "pisscutter". That's why I am glad they have different units with different management objectives. Although I do sometimes worry that the folks that want more success and more trophy quality are more passionate/engaged and more likely to show up and speak for what they want. That pushes the system in that direction and forces everyone to hunt less often on units with higher success and trophy potential.

People use phrases like that unit is "managed better" when they refer to a unit that matches their preferences and that a unit is "managed poorly" when it doesn't match their preferences. The truth is, the way we hunt males rarely crosses a biological threshold and is almost always social or preference based.
 
Tristate said:
Here are some real questions for the hunters here. I really want to see some real answers.

1. If you draw a deer tag, at what percentage of success would you say a unit has been managed poorly for opportunity? I don’t know for sure what you’re trying to say. But if I draw a deer tag, I feel I have about 90% odds at tagging a 4 point buck.
Click to expand...

Tristate said:
2. Do you consider a tag that you may not ever draw in your lifetime an opportunity? Yes you can’t draw if you don’t apply. In itself is an opportunity to possibly obtain an opportunity.
Click to expand...
Tristate said:
3. If you draw a tag that is in a unit that no mature bucks get killed out of (6+ years of age) do you consider that tag an opportunity?
Yes. Big deer are not abundant on general units. But they are still there. You have to HUNT for them. Most of the time they win. That’s ok. And that’s why they are big.
4. If the DWR sees that a unit has a lower percentage kill rate but keeps the number of tags the same for the next year, do you feel the opportunity is the same?
Yes. Weather, hunter activity, etc, things out of our control, all plays into certain success percentages that will drastically vary from year to year. Just because one season doesn’t have a high success rate, doesn’t mean the bucks aren’t there for those with the opportunity to hunt that season. Lots of things make it hard to find them and be successful on knocking one down.
Click to expand...
Tristate said:
5.Do you feel like opportunity to hunt is more important than health of the deer herd?
No. Buck population do not dictate a healthy deer herd. If buck time doe ratios aren’t within their target objectives, the DWR is quick to react to those observations.
6. Do you feel like there is a direct relationship between healthy deer herds and Opportunity?
No. An opportunity is an opportunity to go hunting. What you choose to do with that opportunity is up to each individual to with a tag.
Click to expand...
 
Daxter said:
I like diversity in the kinds of units a state manages for. Different people have different preferences, opinions and standards for what they consider a reasonable hunt/opportunity. Personally, I like to spend time out hunting so much that I would rather hunt more often on units with lower success rates and lower trophy quality than hunt less frequently on units with high success rates and more trophy quality.

I always feel like my chances are better when I have a tag in my pocket and I'm out hunting, than if I'm sitting at home wishing I had a tag. Even on a crummy unit, lightening strikes once in a while. It reminds me of the scene in dumb and dumber "so you're telling me there's a chance". Also, I can hunt hard and not kill or only kill a small/medium sized animal and be totally happy.

I realize that not everyone feels the same way I do. There are a lot of guys, especially on this site, that die a little inside when someone shoots a "pisscutter". That's why I am glad they have different units with different management objectives. Although I do sometimes worry that the folks that want more success and more trophy quality are more passionate/engaged and more likely to show up and speak for what they want. That pushes the system in that direction and forces everyone to hunt less often on units with higher success and trophy potential.

People use phrases like that unit is "managed better" when they refer to a unit that matches their preferences and that a unit is "managed poorly" when it doesn't match their preferences. The truth is, the way we hunt males rarely crosses a biological threshold and is almost always social or preference based.
Click to expand...
Good post, I agree with you. I’m a habit forming creature and apply for deer and elk in the same areas we’ve been hunting for over 40 years even though the deer herds have been decimated over the past decade. I’ve learned two things that are indisputable facts over my lifetime of hunting. 1. Those animals aren’t going to run into camp and surrender, and 2. Deer and Elk are going to be where you find them, get out and hunt.

Harvesting an animal is just icing on the cake, the hunt, the adventure and the camaraderie is what it’s about to me. Good luck on your hunts.
 
1. Below 10% is pretty poor. To me this would indicate too many hunters for the deer present or accessible (moved to private land?) and even excellent, motivated hunters with all the time in the world mostly can’t get it done.

2. No. I don’t consider a tag that is impossible for me to draw an opportunity. Most tags are not impossible, so in that case, they would represent an opportunity.

3. Yes. If deer are present, there is an opportunity at a mature buck somewhere, by someone, even if all are unsuccessful. No hunt should be guaranteed age class.

4. Yes, if the herd can biologically support the amount of licences. Still yes, even if it can’t but the division is conducting poor management in that case.

5. No. But “health” of the herd means different things from a biological -vs- maximum harvest, so it’s tough to equate those.

6. Yes. But again, healthy does not automatically mean maximum harvest yield annually
 
My local unit has about 5% success rate. Since I was a teenager and kept track of the stats there has been between 250-350 bucks killed for 5000-10,000 tags. So the math doesn’t add up but 4-7% success is what the fish and game publishes.

You would think this unit must be completely shot out..terrible…dinks only. But I think it has a better crop/percentage of mature bucks than most of the “good” hunts I go on out of state.

How can that be? Plenty of escapement. Tons of basically unhuntable thick cover and remote backcountry with low deer density. Picked up some great sheds on the winter range and saw some monsters this year.

This is definitely my favorite kind of opportunity hunt. Super tough hunting but the monsters DO exist despite a ton of deer tags.

22379283-66E9-4589-82B1-872B0D038851.jpeg
FEBD8C3A-B87F-4C39-A50B-69407BD10725.jpeg
1E783B03-528C-453D-9061-2668FFD9CF97.jpeg
 
Hey DAX?

Did You Say PISSCUTTER?:D

Daxter said:
I like diversity in the kinds of units a state manages for. Different people have different preferences, opinions and standards for what they consider a reasonable hunt/opportunity. Personally, I like to spend time out hunting so much that I would rather hunt more often on units with lower success rates and lower trophy quality than hunt less frequently on units with high success rates and more trophy quality.

I always feel like my chances are better when I have a tag in my pocket and I'm out hunting, than if I'm sitting at home wishing I had a tag. Even on a crummy unit, lightening strikes once in a while. It reminds me of the scene in dumb and dumber "so you're telling me there's a chance". Also, I can hunt hard and not kill or only kill a small/medium sized animal and be totally happy.

I realize that not everyone feels the same way I do. There are a lot of guys, especially on this site, that die a little inside when someone shoots a "pisscutter". That's why I am glad they have different units with different management objectives. Although I do sometimes worry that the folks that want more success and more trophy quality are more passionate/engaged and more likely to show up and speak for what they want. That pushes the system in that direction and forces everyone to hunt less often on units with higher success and trophy potential.

People use phrases like that unit is "managed better" when they refer to a unit that matches their preferences and that a unit is "managed poorly" when it doesn't match their preferences. The truth is, the way we hunt males rarely crosses a biological threshold and is almost always social or preference based.
Click to expand...
 
willfrye027 said:
My local unit has about 5% success rate. Since I was a teenager and kept track of the stats there has been between 250-350 bucks killed for 5000-10,000 tags. So the math doesn’t add up but 4-7% success is what the fish and game publishes.

You would think this unit must be completely shot out..terrible…dinks only. But I think it has a better crop/percentage of mature bucks than most of the “good” hunts I go on out of state.

How can that be? Plenty of escapement. Tons of basically unhuntable thick cover and remote backcountry with low deer density. Picked up some great sheds on the winter range and saw some monsters this year.

This is definitely my favorite kind of opportunity hunt. Super tough hunting but the monsters DO exist despite a ton of deer tags.

View attachment 72852View attachment 72853View attachment 72854
Click to expand...
You in Calif. ?
Sounds like A zone hunting.
 
LIK2HNT said:
You in Calif. ?
Sounds like A zone hunting.
Click to expand...
D zone. A zone hunting is much better in terms of success rates and seeing legal bucks. I hunt both for different reasons but the common theme is very difficult hunting and despite a TON of tags, the terrain lends itself to growing big deer (by CA standards/age). Guys complain about too many predators and too many tags but the winter range is eye opening with all age classes of deer represented.
 

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