Currently takes 14 pts to get you that muzzy tag. W/ a ton of guys sitting in the 9-13 pt range, I could easily see that jumping to 16-17 points over the next few years. I think a lot of the guys who were waiting on 10(or the other 3 big ones), are giving up and settling for the second rate "trophy" units.
Our group has 9 pts burning a hole our pocket, and we're kinda in the same boat as you. 1st season sounds good, but your looking at 13 pts to guarantee you a tag (40% chance w/ 12 pts). Plus, you're only gonna get to hunt for 5 days. I can't speak for you, but a 5 day hunt ain't go do it for me after 10-15 years of waiting. Second season sounds OK (only takes 10 pts to guarantee you a tag; 16% w/ 9 pts), and it's a few days longer, but I'm not sure it's gonna be worth 10+ years of waiting either. A couple guys in our group are set on a rifle hunt. I'm thinking I might have to break out of the group and try the archery. Either that or get a muzzy tag in one of the less talked about units.
Like you, I'm tired of this waiting game. Watching the number of points necessary to get a tag in a unit climb to what seem like unreachable levels, is killing me. Time to cash in the chips!