2010 Monsoon Outlook just got WORSE!

[CraigS]

LAST EDITED ON Jul-15-10 AT 09:20PM (MST)[p]
So far, the Monsoon has started late and been very weak. Parts of Eastern Arizona (Payson & the White Mtns) have received some rain but central, western & northern Arizona have not received very much. I watch this stuff everyday, x4-10 a day and it is now forcasted to be worse. Check out this link:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/2010monsoon_outlook.php

I have an early archery bull elk tag, in fact it is a great tag but I believe, I, along with other archery tag holders, will see a similar hunt when you compare it to last year. Antler growth is good but it appears as if we are not going to get the Monsoon moisture that is needed. I am hoping for the best but I think we will all see spotty rut activity and a lot of guys huddling around some mud holes.


See your units rain totals daily:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/q2precip.php

 

[oilcan]

Craig you have a P.M.

 

[Bates7]

I'm a 4th generation native of AZ and all of us native Zoners including the Indians know that trying to predict the weather here is extremely dificult. Meteorology now days has improved quite a bit, I'll give the science that. But the fact still remains, Mother Nature still makes the final call. Heck look at last year. Nobody expected the spring rains like we had and the summer was supposed to be wetter than the previous one. Just the opposite happened. My point is, just keep the faith and pray for rain. I have been studying the weather here for the past 30 yaers of my 42 (as an amature) and that's my synopsis. Oh and by the way NOAA is the only trusted source for weather.

http://img1.jurko.net/avatar_13010.jpg[/img][/url]

 

[azbuster]

Starting to look alot like last year. Last year 10 (north part)got a few good rains in August. 8 got a real good rain at the start of the hunt(too late), but 7 and 9 got very little. Made for tough calling and everyone fighting for tanks, well the ones that were not dry. Last year I heard the calling was better in 10 and 9 but still not what it should be. I had a tag in 7w and it was tough calling. This year my son is in 7w and I am starting to think we may be in for the same type of hunt. Could be worse, I had a tag in 2002 that was by far worse than 2009. Let's hope for some big rain in the next few weeks so these elk can get rippin. I don't use NOAA as much as wunderground.com to track it, for me I just like the site better. Good luck I am ready for the sound of September. Even in bad years it is the best.

 

[CraigS]

LAST EDITED ON Jul-15-10 AT 10:05PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jul-15-10 AT 10:01?PM (MST)

I was in 7W in 2002 and it was horrible! Like you said, it probably won't be that bad but more like last year. You just have to change tactics and it is still a hunt, better than sitting at home.

One thing about the weather is it is just like hunting, there are no absolutes. These folks change their minds more than my wife and tend to be wrong about 50-60% of the time. Dont' tell her I said that!

Unit 1, 27 & 3ac will probably be good. They had a late snow melt off and seem to be getting some decent rain. I am just worried about the rest of Arizona.

 

[Idcurs]

I had a tag in 9 last year it was a great year evev without the rain.The rut was not the best but lots of big bulls.I had four picked out only to have the Mullin's boys get one before the hunt with the gov tag.Still the other bulls were great all over 390.The water did dry up before the hunt all but a dirt tank I had a blind on and all the new game waters.The best thing about less water the bulls work the ones they have a lot more.I saw over fifty bulls sitting water last year along with a very few mule deer,coyotes,bobcats,fox,lions,javelina and one bear.If the rains are spottie like last year you will just have to hunt for water just like you hunt for bulls.

 

[azbuster]

Well it looks like some change. Nice storm north of Williams and some action to the west of that starting to build. Remote station near Williams picked up over a inch. Let it rain I want to be walking and talking to the elk not sitting water waiting on them.

 

[CraigS]

LAST EDITED ON Jul-16-10 AT 06:25PM (MST)[p]A big storm hit 7W today. Some locations got at much as 3 inches of rain. A line from Williams to just north of Parks to 180 got hammered. NWS Flagstaff is calling for increase chance of storms over the next two days before it dies off.

Still praying for rain!

 

[KaibabHntr]

Where I was at in 6a last year OTC deer hunting just prior to the elk hunt got dumped on almost every day for 6 days. Elk were buglin and smaller bulls were pushin cows a little. Maybe not full rut but they were definately vocal. Hunting dark to dark IMO helps your odds go way up. In 06, archery bull tag, i was running into elk all hours of the day.

Ryan
www.KeyToTheKaibab.com

 

[Gator]

make your own Waterholes, if the water gets scarce you can find a spot leading to those places(tanks) that still have water and make your own watering places for elk,Short stop them before they get to them tanks that everyone is sitting on. BUILD it and they will come, just remember you will have to keep hauling in the water for them to get use to using your tank.


"I have found if you go the extra mile it's Never crowded".

 

[CraigS]

LAST EDITED ON Jul-29-10 AT 02:17PM (MST)[p]Whelp, once again the forecast has been wrong, sort of...

Eastern, SE & the Mogollon Rim Country have been getting some good storms. Western AZ is finally in the loop over the next few days. NWS has bumped up the pops for Arizona thru the weekend, with Flash Floods already happening in Mohave & Yavapai County.

Tucson weather service has removed the link to the Climate Prediciton Centers Monsoon Outlook. They can't predict the weather outside of a day or two, so how do they expect folks to believe in GLOBAL WARMING. ????

 

[muleybull]

Its been a little humid in our unit....

www.muleybulloutfitters.com

 

[idgaf]

I live in show low and I am strongly considering building an arc. It seems it has rained everyday for the last few weeks

 

[oilcan]

idgaf i bet you'd have the only Arc in Arizona

 

[idgaf]

yeah, just need to gather the animals, next up antelope on the 20th

 

[CraigS]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-04-10 AT 06:39PM (MST)[p]Northern Arizona July Weather Summary:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/Monthly_Summaries/Jul10Review.pdf

 

[oilcan]

Great info craigS

 

[glacial21]

3.5" more July rain than normal for Flagstaff.. That's good news to a guy like me with a 6A archery tag and not a lot of desire to be glued to a tank for 2 weeks.

 

[Holyroller]

Glacial.... Do you have a bull tag? north or south? I have a north bull tag at the same time. been up every weekend and there is a lot of water on the ground and elk are EVERYWHERE.

 

[glacial21]

I do have a bull tag, but it is in the rarely-mentioned West part of the unit. I like the sound of what you are seeing though. Hopefully there are a few on my side of the interstate as well!

 

[DonMartin]

I was in Unit 10 last week scouting for antelope and had no idea how it had changed in just one week.

The difference between the week before when I was up there scouting with Tim Pender and last week was crazy!

The place has more water than I think I've ever seen! I know Shaeffer Tank had more water in it than I've EVER seen in it! You could launch the Skeeter on it and pull water skiers all over I think!

New "lakes" had formed all over the place.

There was even water way out on the plains in low spots.

Cowboys on the Boquillas said they got 3 1/2 inches and the washes were running real high. I believe it!

Most of the dirt tanks got recharged and are looking great.

Saw elk, deer, one lone javelina , and 40 antelope, nine of which were bucks. I saw one herd of 24 that had NOT ONE BUCK with them!

Saw just one "maybe keeper" out of the rest of the bunch, and lots of single, young bucks. No rutting activity observed at all.

I think most of the antelope hunters (archery/rifle) this year are going to be in for a real shock in Unit 10. But the good news is the monsoons did a good job there.

Don Martin
Arizona Wildlife Outfitters