800 thousand mule deer

[ridgetops]

We keep hearing this number being brought up but where is it coming from?
Does anyone have data or proof of this claim?
Where are the reports of this many deer being in the state in one year?
And how many years were there this many deer in the state?
I would really like to see the document.

 

[elkfromabove]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-29-19 AT 11:42AM (MST)[p]>We keep hearing this number being
>brought up but where is
>it coming from?
>Does anyone have data or proof
>of this claim?
>Where are the reports of this
>many deer being in the
>state in one year?
>And how many years were there
>this many deer in the
>state?
>I would really like to see
>the document.

There is none as far as I've checked with DWR, Utah State Archives, Salt Lake Tribune, Deseret News & Google.

I first heard the idea from DeLoss Christenson (Lumpy) on the 2014 Mule Deer Committee who claimed to calculate it from harvest records based on current harvest data. At the time, the DWR and most of the committee members challenged it, but DeLoss maintained he was right (Actually, he came up with 1,200,000 originally, but backed down to 800,000 when he got challenged.) and apparently he told his son, Muley 73, and that's who most of you heard it from.

The DWR has used other calculations to come up with a possible, but not probable, 600,000. But even that is questionable. We simply don't know based on harvest records because deer permits were issued for every hunting license, licenses were over the counter and unlimited, either sex permits were normal, party hunting wasn't considered illegal, harvest surveys were taken over the phone by untrained seasonal employees, and computers were mostly non-existent. Past harvest data just isn't reliable.

And, of course, Muley 73 occasionally uses that number whenever it suits his purpose, so take it with a grain (or gallon ) of salt!

 

[Vanilla]

Wow.

 

[coloradoman]

Their isn't 800 thousand mule deer in any western state....
Prove it to me and I will kiss your ass...
Ridiculous

 

[elkassassin]

I Don't Have Exact Numbers!

So Don't get your Panties in a Wad!

Let's Say We Have 800,000 Deer in TARDville!

(Which We Sure the HELL Don't!)

Let's Say that 1/2 are Bucks & Half are Does!

Let's Say Some Does Have 1 Fawn & Some Have 2 Fawns!

Let's Just Say We average one Fawn Per One Doe!

Let's Say We've got a Healthy Deer Herd!

(Which We Sure the HELL Don't!)

With a Healthy Deer Herd there should be a 50%+ Survival Rate!

(Which We Sure the HELL Don't have that!)

So We Cut the 800,000 in 1/2!

400,000 Does!

400,000 Does have an Average of one Fawn each!

A 50% Survival Rate(I Wish!) on the Fawns!

200,000 Head on New Deer Crop!

Should We say 1/2 of them are Bucks & Half of them are Does?

Now We are at 100,000 Head of New upcoming Bucks!

That Means there Should Be a Surplus of Bucks with only 93,000 TARDS & Permitee's,Right?

Every TARD in the State Should be Able to Take a Buck Right?

FOR GAWDS Sakes with 800,000 Head something Good should be Happening!

I'M CALLING TOTAL BS ON there being 800,000 Deer in this State!

Go ahead Niller & DeepColor,CHIME in with your BS & Tell Me I'm Wrong!

NOTE:::

My Numbers are Not Correct!

I Wish Our Fawn Crop had a 50% Survival Rate,but I'm in the Woods enough to know it Ain't Even Close to 50%,SAD!

If We are Harvesting Bucks with an Average 25%-35% (Gusstimate,I Don't have them Numbers!) Success Rates,where's the Rest of the Bucks going?

Yes I Know there are Several other Factors in the Depletion of the Deer Herd I did not List!

HELL-F'N-RIGHT!














I know so many people in so many places
They make allot of money but they got sad faces

It Ain't Easy being Me!

 

[ridgetops]

Now I think Bessy is finally seeing the light!

 

[elkassassin]

>
>Now I think Bessy is finally
>seeing the light!

Nope!

I've Seen the Light Longer than Most!









I know so many people in so many places
They make allot of money but they got sad faces

It Ain't Easy being Me!

 

[elkfromabove]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-29-19 AT 09:14PM (MST)[p]Opps! After re-reading my post #1 and some of your responses, I realized I didn't clarify my answer like I should have. The 800,000 number claimed by Lumpy (and Muley) was not meant to be a recent or current number, but the highest number in the past. That's why Muley73 usually says something to the effect, "Once 800,000, now only 300,000" and that's why he often claims we should be able to get back to it. I'm sorry for the mis-que! We certainly have been losing mule deer since I started hunting 62 years ago, just like every other western state, but I don't think we were even close to 800,000.

 

[hossblur]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-29-19 AT 11:28PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Dec-29-19 AT 11:18?PM (MST)


And, of course, Muley 73 occasionally uses that number whenever it suits his purpose, so take it with a grain (or gallon ) of salt!




By occasionally you mean with every breath he takes?

I never knew where that stupid number came from. It's even funnier that he uses a number, based not on counting but on fairytale math WHEN HE IS CRITICIZING THE DWR DEER COUNTS as being wrong.

So, to translate. We should all take a tag cut, limit hunting, in some cases close units based on a fairytale.

The dude that preaches how shizzy the DWR manages deer bases this on 800,000 deer that was at one time 1.2 million, although not once was there a count proving that?

NOW THATS JUST RICH.


All the years I've seen him post that #, and it's a nothing based on nothing.

AWESOME.

I cannot wait to be lectured yet again about how he's serious. He's connected. He is actually doing things. He's in coffee shops making changes.

Sorry fellas but this is the most head shaking thing I've read in a while.








From the party of HUNTIN, FISHIN, PUBLIC LAND.

 

[cantkillathing]

Well if you take the DWR's count that we are at 300,000 then I believe at one point we were probably close to the 800,000. '
There is no way in hell we are close to the 300,000 the DWR is claiming, I bet we are closer to 150,000. So when the division says we have 800,000 then it was more like 400,000.
You guys that believe the numbers they put out, should also start buying sasquatch tags because they are around as well.

 

[elkassassin]

>LAST EDITED ON Dec-29-19
>AT 11:28?PM (MST)
>
>LAST EDITED ON Dec-29-19
>AT 11:18?PM (MST)
>
>
>And, of course, Muley 73 occasionally
>uses that number whenever it
>suits his purpose, so take
>it with a grain (or
>gallon ) of salt!
>
>
>
>
>By occasionally you mean with every
>breath he takes?
>
>I never knew where that stupid
>number came from. It's
>even funnier that he uses
>a number, based not on
>counting but on fairytale math
>WHEN HE IS CRITICIZING THE
>DWR DEER COUNTS as being
>wrong.
>
>So, to translate. We should
>all take a tag cut,
>limit hunting, in some cases
>close units based on a
>fairytale.
>
>The dude that preaches how shizzy
>the DWR manages deer bases
>this on 800,000 deer that
>was at one time 1.2
>million, although not once was
>there a count proving that?
>
>
>NOW THATS JUST RICH.
>
>
>All the years I've seen him
>post that #, and it's
>a nothing based on nothing.
>
>
>AWESOME.
>
>I cannot wait to be lectured
>yet again about how he's
>serious. He's connected.
>He is actually doing things.
> He's in coffee shops
>making changes.
>
>Sorry fellas but this is the
>most head shaking thing I've
>read in a while.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>From the party of HUNTIN, FISHIN,
>PUBLIC LAND.

I Can make You one Guarantee Hoss!

There was a Time in this State where there was 800,000+ Deer!

Some of You evident-ally Ain't Old Enough to know it?

No,There isn't 800,000 today and Not even close to it!

There Ain't No Way to Count every Deer in this State!

But the BS counts that have been taking place for decades are Exaggerated beyond belief!

I Can Vouch for a few areas in the State:

NE Utah Deer Numbers are down so Low it's Pitiful!

LaSAl Mountains Deer Numbers are a JOKE!

No,I'm Not Looking at some BS Buck to Doe Ratio Management!

I'm Looking at the Deer Herd as a Whole Herd/Total Deer Numbers!

Let's Do some things to get Total Deer Numbers back up where they Should be and then if you wanna start looking at/managing Buck to Doe Ratio's get after it!


TARD Management:We Got 50 Deer left!

But 8 of them are Bucks!

But BY GAWD at least the Buck to Doe Ratio is good!

8 Bucks Still Sucking on & Breeding their Mothers!

Ya,Ain't that Cool?

HELL-F'N-RIGHT!













I know so many people in so many places
They make allot of money but they got sad faces

It Ain't Easy being Me!

 

[elkassassin]

>LAST EDITED ON Dec-29-19
>AT 11:42?AM (MST)
>
>>We keep hearing this number being
>>brought up but where is
>>it coming from?
>>Does anyone have data or proof
>>of this claim?
>>Where are the reports of this
>>many deer being in the
>>state in one year?
>>And how many years were there
>>this many deer in the
>>state?
>>I would really like to see
>>the document.
>
>There is none as far as
>I've checked with DWR, Utah
>State Archives, Salt Lake Tribune,
>Deseret News & Google.
>
>I first heard the idea from
>DeLoss Christenson (Lumpy) on the
>2014 Mule Deer Committee who
>claimed to calculate it from
>harvest records based on current
>harvest data. At the time,
>the DWR and most of
>the committee members challenged it,
>but DeLoss maintained he was
>right (Actually, he came up
>with 1,200,000 originally, but backed
>down to 800,000 when he
>got challenged.) and apparently he
>told his son, Muley 73,
>and that's who most of
>you heard it from.
>
>The DWR has used other calculations
>to come up with a
>possible, but not probable, 600,000.
>But even that is questionable.
>We simply don't know based
>on harvest records because deer
>permits were issued for every
>hunting license, licenses were over
>the counter and unlimited, either
>sex permits were normal, party
>hunting wasn't considered illegal, harvest
>surveys were taken over the
>phone by untrained seasonal employees,
>and computers were mostly non-existent.
>Past harvest data just isn't
>reliable.
>
>And, of course, Muley 73 occasionally
>uses that number whenever it
>suits his purpose, so take
>it with a grain (or
>gallon ) of salt!


Hey EFA!

Can You Find the Posts where Lumpy Claimed them kind of Numbers as of anytime Recently?

I Don't Remember Him Claiming that in recent years?








I know so many people in so many places
They make allot of money but they got sad faces

It Ain't Easy being Me!

 

[hossblur]

Bess.

46 next month(I expect a gift)

The problem with BS is it goes both ways.

Do I trust the counts? No.

But that doesn't mean I trust pixie dust math either.

The guy who did the "math" claimed 1.2 million. Then dropped it to 800,000 when pushed.

That's a 400,000 deer rounding error. HE WAS OFF BY 1/3 ?

Now your spewing it. Based on nothing.


And this is EXACTLY the issue.

On one side you have understaffed, underfunded DWR biologists trying to do counts. Which then go to SLC and get jimmied by the political hacks in there.

And on the other you have guys like Muley spewing rainbows and unicorns as if it was fact.

So here we are.

You ain't walking into a room full of biologists, looking tgem in the eye telling them their counts are crap, while telling them about the 800,000 deer we used to have. They simply laugh you out of the room, especially when you "show your work" for the math you did.


And that's before they flop down a map from whatever fairytale year Lumpy and Muley cite, then show you a 2019 map which shows WE CANT CARRY 800K,700K,600K,500K, 400K deer due to rapid expansion of PEOPLE in Utah.

But hey. I see the blonde chicks with round butts, huge knockers, fishing in tiny bikinis on IG too. Obviously there is a market for fantasy among outdoorsmen. May as well dream big.

If Lumpy/Muley had claimed 500-600k. Not one person would argue.

From the party of HUNTIN, FISHIN, PUBLIC LAND.

 

[elkfromabove]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-30-19 AT 02:45PM (MST)[p]>Bess.
>
>46 next month(I expect a gift)
>
>
>The problem with BS is it
>goes both ways.
>
>Do I trust the counts?
>No.
>
>But that doesn't mean I trust
>pixie dust math either.
>
>The guy who did the "math"
>claimed 1.2 million. Then
>dropped it to 800,000 when
>pushed.
>
>That's a 400,000 deer rounding error.
> HE WAS OFF BY
>1/3 ?
>
>Now your spewing it. Based
>on nothing.
>
>
>And this is EXACTLY the issue.
>
>
>On one side you have understaffed,
>underfunded DWR biologists trying to
>do counts. Which then
>go to SLC and get
>jimmied by the political hacks
>in there.
>
>And on the other you have
>guys like Muley spewing rainbows
>and unicorns as if it
>was fact.
>
>So here we are.
>
>You ain't walking into a room
>full of biologists, looking tgem
>in the eye telling them
>their counts are crap, while
>telling them about the 800,000
>deer we used to have.
> They simply laugh you
>out of the room, especially
>when you "show your work"
>for the math you did.
>
>
>
>And that's before they flop down
>a map from whatever fairytale
>year Lumpy and Muley cite,
>then show you a 2019
>map which shows WE CANT
>CARRY 800K,700K,600K,500K, 400K deer due
>to rapid expansion of PEOPLE
>in Utah.
>
>But hey. I see the
>blonde chicks with round butts,
>huge knockers, fishing in tiny
>bikinis on IG too.
>Obviously there is a market
>for fantasy among outdoorsmen.
>May as well dream big.
>
>
>If Lumpy/Muley had claimed 500-600k.
>Not one person would argue.
>
>
>From the party of HUNTIN, FISHIN,
>PUBLIC LAND.

And that's also before they show you the latest historical Palmer Drought Severity Index maps and charts on their 2019 Southern Region Range Trend Studies summaries, along with the text and big game habitat ownership maps and charts, and before they show you the 2018 Watershed Initiative Report which shows the quality and quantity of big game habitat vegetation and soil, and before they show you the Statewide and Unit Deer Management Plans, and before they show you the Cougar Management and Black Bear Management Plans, and dozens of other studies, plans, data and projects. There is no way to turn back the clock!

https://wildlife.utah.gov/range-trends-archives.html (Click on 2018 Southern Region Summary)

https://wildlife.utah.gov/pdf/range-trends/archive/2018_WRI_Report.pdf (Note cheatgrass figures.)

https://wildlife.utah.gov/pdf/cougars/cmgtplan.pdf

https://wildlife.utah.gov/public_meetings/info/2010-12-06.pdf

https://www.grandviewoutdoors.com/coyote/cash-for-coyotes-do-bounties-work

 

[elkassassin]

So Hoss?

How Many Deer do You Think We Currently have in this State?

I'll Admit I Don't Know the Approx Number!

But I'll also Tell Everybody this:

Not Near As Many as We Should Have!

Just Because the DWR Claims it's some Exaggerated Number are You Gonna GULP it?








I know so many people in so many places
They make allot of money but they got sad faces

It Ain't Easy being Me!

 

[hossblur]

> So Hoss?
>
>How Many Deer do You Think
>We Currently have in this
>State?
>
>I'll Admit I Don't Know the
>Approx Number!
>
>But I'll also Tell Everybody this:
>
>
>Not Near As Many as We
>Should Have!
>
>Just Because the DWR Claims it's
>some Exaggerated Number are You
>Gonna GULP it?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>I know so many people in
>so many places
>They make allot of money but
>they got sad faces
>
>It Ain't Easy being Me!


Huntable or just deer?

Lumpy was always right about only counting huntable deer.

There are tons more DEER in my town and around than there ever were growing up here. Same as most towns I bet.

My unit West of Manti/Ephraim. I don't see much difference. Not much water=not many deer.

East of there I'dsay less.

Uintas where i hunt elk. Maybe less, although I don't remember it some hotbed for deer..

I know the DWR officer where I hunt deer truck didn't leave his yard for the rifle opener. Or second weekend. I doubt he has any feel for what happened.

But again. I don't care how many deer are in CWMU. Or AI. Or locked down private. My guess is places like that inflate the numbers.


I will say I think dudes had unrealistic expectations last year. Go back and look at All the "antler growth", "wet weather", yada yada talk with 1 good winter. On The back of some real bad drought, and real bad winter in the north. Don't forget couple years ago they had to bulldoze in emergency feeding up north. Gunnison reservoir they dredged to get every drop, and 9mile doesn't exist anymore. The mountains were every bit as bad. From Indianola to Mapleton burned. But on good winter dudes were cashing in points and doing cartwheels. It wasn't a great year, so a lot if guys went Chicken Little.

Thing is. What's the incentive to lie? They don'tget bonuses on numbers. In fact they could declare emergencies and try to get funding increases. I keep reading it's all about the $$$, yet I haven't had tag increase. They have sat on same number of hunters forever.

The outfitters and $fw seem to be rolling in cash, but the dwr?


Then I head to the mountain. I cross a non stop city from Brigham to Nephi. I see entire forests that are dead with deadfall 10ft high. I see creeks down to a trickle in the fall. Ponds dried up(blue grass and hay suck up a ton of water). I see counties that encourage huge ATV riding. See houses in the foothills. And to be fair I see a ##### ton more elk, along with dying aspen and old sage. Im not sure how many deer we can hold. But I know the "glory days" were just that. I live in the glory days for elk, and I prefer them anyway.

But if we are in the 250k range. I wouldn't argue. 300k, maybe.

But your on crack if you think your going to double that. Or 2.5 times it to get to that magical 800k.

I hunted in the early 90's. I hunted last year.

Not much difference in my neck of the woods.




From the party of HUNTIN, FISHIN, PUBLIC LAND.

 

[elkassassin]

46?

ROOKIE!

So You Don't Give a Rat's ASS about Deer?

Somebody better start Giving!







I know so many people in so many places
They make allot of money but they got sad faces

It Ain't Easy being Me!

 

[cantkillathing]

Hoss,
you say your neck of the woods has been about the same. The problems I see is when the 2 weekend worries come to the small communities to hunt deer they may only see the same but the locals that live in the areas who spend day in and day out in the areas, can tell the Wasatch front people that the deer herd is crap, and is not the same, it so far from good. I can tell you 3 years ago the DWR tried to convince us locals in our area that the deer herd is as good as it has ever been, which is crap, it wasn't even close to being as good as it was in the 90's, I am 42 years old and I can atleast remember deer herds being 1000's strong in the winter range. You cant even go count 300 deer now. But hey we should believe them right.

 

[hossblur]

>Hoss,
>you say your neck of
>the woods has been about
>the same. The problems
>I see is when the
>2 weekend worries come to
>the small communities to hunt
>deer they may only see
>the same but the locals
>that live in the areas
>who spend day in and
>day out in the areas,
>can tell the Wasatch front
>people that the deer herd
>is crap, and is not
>the same, it so far
>from good. I can
>tell you 3 years ago
>the DWR tried to convince
>us locals in our area
>that the deer herd is
>as good as it has
>ever been, which is crap,
>it wasn't even close to
>being as good as it
>was in the 90's, I
>am 42 years old and
>I can atleast remember deer
>herds being 1000's strong in
>the winter range. You
>cant even go count 300
>deer now. But hey
>we should believe them right.
>


I agree with your last statement. Not best ever been.

But. I know where the winter range is in my areas.

Not deer, but houses. In fact the farms that also served as winter grounds, now have houses above them.

So what's your plan? Tear them down?

This ain't a local vs front issue.

But im still waiting.

How are you replacing the revenue from tag cuts? You are demanding surveys and better counts, that takes $$ and manpower.

Are you doubling license fees?


From the party of HUNTIN, FISHIN, PUBLIC LAND.

 

[hossblur]

>
>46?
>
>ROOKIE!
>
>So You Don't Give a Rat's
>ASS about Deer?
>
>Somebody better start Giving!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>I know so many people in
>so many places
>They make allot of money but
>they got sad faces
>
>It Ain't Easy being Me!


It would be foolish to see the explosion of elk in my lifetime and not acknowledge that with shrinking winter range they have hurt deer.

But that genie ain't never going back in the bottle.bottle.




From the party of HUNTIN, FISHIN, PUBLIC LAND.

 

[cantkillathing]

Well in our winter range we have had no housing or change in 50 years. The cedar tree have got out of control in winter range, could use lots more railing and such. Summer range could use some work as well, lots of canyons that have been over grown and so thick of brush and trees you cant hardly walk through them, could use some of those fires.
for revenue sale bear tags, hell there is more bear than deer on the Lasal mtns. and on elk ridge. Literally more bear than deer.

 

[elkfromabove]

>Well in our winter range we
>have had no housing or
>change in 50 years.
>The cedar tree have got
>out of control in winter
>range, could use lots more
>railing and such. Summer
>range could use some work
>as well, lots of canyons
>that have been over grown
>and so thick of brush
>and trees you cant hardly
>walk through them, could use
>some of those fires.
>for revenue sale bear tags, hell
>there is more bear than
>deer on the Lasal mtns.
>and on elk ridge.
>Literally more bear than deer.
>

Oh, it has changed alright in 50 years! (You first tell us it hasn't changed and then you tell us how it has.) Long term grazing, cheatgrass, acid rain, drought, noxious weeds, CWD from Colorado, fire suppression, P&J encroachment, elk numbers and ATV's, among other things, made sure of that. Just because it hasn't changed visually from your perspective, that certainly doesn't mean it's the same as 50 years ago, or even 20 years ago.