Advice on using preference points

[huckleberryhi]

I currently have 12 deer pt s, that being said my dad is the one that has hunted 051 4-5 times in the past and has put in for that unit once again this year. I myself don't believe that unit is deserving of 12+ points because I have been told that the number of quality deer has dropped. If you had 12+ points this year what unit would you apply for? I have done some research but that has been altered by the huntnevada website being down most of this year. Any help would be appreciated.

 

[mlycrzy]

I'm assuming you're a non resident? I would look into a late rut hunt with that many points. Or you could let me put in with you as a party and I'll take care of the application

 

[Downrange]

Well in Nevada it doesn't really matter how many pts you have because they go through all 5 of your choices before moving on to the next app. I always put the best units in the state as number 1,2,3 and then my last units as mediocre units. I do this even when I have not pts at all. That being said this would be some of my choices for sure. 241-245. 231. 22 late 6 late 131-134 late. Just a thought and in no particular order.

 

[Zim]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-04-16 AT 03:09PM (MST)[p]After signing on with GoHunt and looking over the REAL draw odds with my 17 points, I completely tanked picking the top 5 units in HF. The odds were still 1/10th of 1%. That's crazy no deer hunt is worth throwing one chance away much less 3. I went with one slightly preferable unit and 4 mid-tier units, before NV decides they want to make more money and throw us high point holders under the bus by "changing" their squared point system to a straight bonus or something. Got a pacemaker last week. Time to stop dreaming and start cashing while I can.

I think it's pathetic that most of the hunt draw websites publish odds like 3-5% when the real odds are 1/10th of 1%. Anything to encourage their subscriber base.


*****************************************************
Greenhorns educate yourselves. Wherever SFW goes, scandals and corruption follow. Write your legislators:

http://kutv.com/news/local/allegations-of-corruption-surround-utah-hungtin-and-conservation-expo

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http://www.fieldandstream.com/blogs...ares-north-american-hunting-model-“socialism”

http://www.standard.net/Recreation/...16-Western-Hunting-and-Conservation-Expo.html

http://www.mtbullypulpit.org/2012/06/pox-on-fox.html

http://www.thewildlifenews.com/2013...on-essentially-buy-utah-division-of-wildlife/

http://westernvaluesproject.org/tax...hunting-energy-industry-over-hunters-anglers/

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/u...-but-hunters-cry-foul.html?smid=pl-share&_r=2

http://www.themudflats.net/archives/25891

 

[Sierra]

>LAST EDITED ON Apr-04-16
>AT 03:09?PM (MST)
>
>After signing on with GoHunt and
>looking over the REAL draw
>odds with my 17 points,
>.............
>
>I think it's pathetic that most
>of the hunt draw websites
>publish odds like 3-5% when
>the real odds are 1/10th
>of 1%. Anything to
>encourage their subscriber base.
>

I'm pretty sure it's impossible to determine the "REAL" odds for Nevada. But i do agree with your statement that it's a joke that most websites publish dramatically inflated odds.

 

[Califelkslayer]

DITTO!!!!

They don't publish anyone's second through fifth choice so it's impossible to know the true odds.

The odds Hunter'strailhead, HF, ect publish just show a relative "Demand."

I drew a tag with 9 PPs last year that HF said the odds were 526 to 1, longest deer tag odds in the state. But someone has to draw.

Now with 0 deer PPs I'm looking at muzzy and archery tags. If I get to 5 PPs again, I'll get picky.

Just can't wait for my elk waiting period to get over so I can play that game again.

 

[MrDoe]

http://www.gohunt.com/read/life/insights-with-the-founder-nevada-draw-odds-are-now-live

Gohunt got all 5 choices from Nevada.

 

[huckleberryhi]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-04-16 AT 08:57PM (MST)[p]Awesome mlycrzy sounds like something my dad would say. Yes I am a non-res and i have built that many points because school, marriage, 3 kids under seven etc.....have allowed me to. I guess some things can benefit you even when you don't plan on it. My dad says there are 30 inch deer in 051 but I have heard that the numbers are down. I have continued to try and use hunt nevada and the site has been down, I will attempt gohunt again. Maybe I should be nice next year and put in with my brother and dad to draw. See what happens, thanks for responding.

 

[lostinOregon]

Do yourself a favor. Go hunt with your dad. You can never get your time back and some day you will wish you would have had one more hunt. Your dad is right in that every unit in NV has big deer. Lost a good friend a week ago and my FIL was just diagnosed with cancer. Life is short my friend.

Rich

 

[Sierra]

>http://www.gohunt.com/read/life/insights-with-the-founder-nevada-draw-odds-are-now-live
>
>Gohunt got all 5 choices from
>Nevada.


Impressive. I will definitely be checking it out.

 

[huckleberryhi]

Thanks Rich, quality advice that I will seriously take into strong consideration for my future hunt.

 

[Eric3956]

I second that. I would give anything to hunt more season with my dad. Don't pass up a chance to share that time together. Always take a lot of pictures because when the season is over all you will have is those great memories and the photos to look back on and smile

 

[sourkraut]

I would agree to hunt with your father while you have the opportunity. That said, make it his hunt. You help scouting, glassing, game retrieval, cooking, dishes etc. Use your points elsewhere, done the road, definitely not in 051. Sourkraut

 

[bullskin]

051 is a pretty hunt with much of the unit at high elevation, but it would be among my last choices for a really good buck. Go for it if you just want to enjoy a nice hunt with a good chance of success, but if you are after a bigger buck, then choose another unit nearby with more difficult access and fewer wide open flats that make the 051 deer easy targets when driven off the mountains.

 

[huckleberryhi]

Thanks for all the advice and I ended up splitting the points with my dad so we should draw. Hopefully I will be able to post up some pictures later in the year. Good luck to everyone and thanks again.

 

[lostinOregon]

Good luck!

 

[Elmacho]

excel spreadsheet

column 1: bonus points
column 2: Square them
column 3: Applicants per bonus point level
Column 4: Squared pts times applicants at each level, sum them at the bottom
column 5; column 2, line by line.. divide column 2 by sum at bottom of column 4.

with 14 points, squared I have 196 random numbers in the draw. There are 424 applicants with a total of 9067 points.

196/9067= 2.16% chance of drawing with 14 points.


As Lloyd Christmas said "SO YOUR SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!"

 

[akamissedagain]

>excel spreadsheet
>
>column 1: bonus points
>column 2: Square them
>column 3: Applicants per bonus
>point level
>Column 4: Squared pts times
>applicants at each level, sum
>them at the bottom
>column 5; column 2, line
>by line.. divide column 2
>by sum at bottom of
>column 4.
>
>with 14 points, squared I have
>196 random numbers in the
>draw. There are 424 applicants
>with a total of 9067
>points.
>
>196/9067= 2.16% chance of drawing with
>14 points.
>
>
>As Lloyd Christmas said "SO YOUR
>SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!"

There are 424 applicants with 9067 points that applied just as a first choice. There was also 424 applicant as 2nd choice with 9067 points and 424 applicants at 3rd choice with 9067 points etc etc...
Your real odds are %0.0043

 

[greyghost]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-22-16 AT 03:46PM (MST)[p]Man, I have never been great at math but that formula seems like it is only good for calculating one tag. Is there only one tag available, or did I miss something? There must be more than one if you applied as a party.

 

[huckleberryhi]

To be honest I really didn't look at the draw odds. I based my comments on my dad drawing every 5th or 6th year for the last twenty plus years. He hunted 051 3or for times over that period of time but the seasons and tag quota were different if my memory serves me correctly. Guess we will see what transpires. I am definitely not as well versed as you gentlemen so I guess we will see what happens. Thanks for the info and the advise, good luck on your hunts.

 

[greyghost]

I understand the feeling of drawing every five years. I'm in the same ballpark. I wouldn't change the way Nevada draws unless it was only in my favor. Lol. For the most part I wait years for the quality hunts I apply for and the wait does suck but the reward is always worth the wait in the end for me. Good luck to you guys this year.

 

[Elmacho]

AKA, Grey,

Ya got me. I didn't think too long on my math.

Just calculated the chance one of my numbers being pulled, and for one tag....odds are worse than initially calculated.

reality just hit.....this sucks

 

[greyghost]

Elmacho,
Don't tell me stuff like that. The odds are worse? Like I said I'm not a math wiz, but they should be better calculating multiple tags instead of only one. I haven't analyzed your math to see if you are on or not but your general calculations seemed on track. I know the stats NDOW puts up are what they are, but I look at them and just calculate my personal odds using those numbers (with my points) and keep my head up with optimism, and so far year after year their numbers have fallen right in line for me.

 

[falloutwest]

051 has plenty of big bucks if you are willing to get after it a bit.

 

[huckleberryhi]

>051 has plenty of big bucks
>if you are willing to
>get after it a bit.
>


Unfortunately I haven't been able to spend much time in the unit but my father has. He has hunted it 5 or 6 times and has seen plenty of big bucks, especially when it snows. No matter what I am willing to put in some hard work in and miles on the boots. It has been about ten years since I was last there but I seem to remember the wilderness area seemed to hold some good deer. I cant wait to see what this season brings.

 

[Califelkslayer]

Good luck drawing with your Dad.

Sometimes the experience is more important than the results.