AZ Archery Elk
- Thread starter Aaron
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vitalzone
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I think max points this year for elk is 18 or 19,In arizona,there are no for sure draw tags.
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mesquitehunter
Guest
Both of you guys otta be close. Good luck on your draw
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mrzahn
Guest
Is there some where that this info is available, I use to get the stat book that they put out, but haven't for several years now. I have 10 points and it would nice to know how my possible odds are.
OutdoorWriter
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LAST EDITED ON Jan-24-08 AT 09:51AM (MST)[p]Aaron,
Unfortunately, NRs also must contend with the 10% cap on NR permits, which is set on a PER UNIT basis.
For example, this year, there are 150 archery permits available in both Unit 10 and 3A/3C. That translates to only 15 NR permits available in each unit, even though the 20% set aside for the max points holders is 30 for each hunt. So once NRs hit the magic 15 permit mark, no other set aside permit can be issued to a NR. There are also dozens upon dozens of NRs & residents that have as many or more points than you have.
That all said, it is possible but not probable that not all 15 NR permits get issued from the max point pool -- i.e where residents draw 20 and NRs draw 10, or some similar combination. In that case, anyone with any number of points has a chance to draw one of the remaining five NR permits in the general draw. Just don't hold your breath because it will probably never be a SURE thing. ;-) -TONY
Unfortunately, NRs also must contend with the 10% cap on NR permits, which is set on a PER UNIT basis.
For example, this year, there are 150 archery permits available in both Unit 10 and 3A/3C. That translates to only 15 NR permits available in each unit, even though the 20% set aside for the max points holders is 30 for each hunt. So once NRs hit the magic 15 permit mark, no other set aside permit can be issued to a NR. There are also dozens upon dozens of NRs & residents that have as many or more points than you have.
That all said, it is possible but not probable that not all 15 NR permits get issued from the max point pool -- i.e where residents draw 20 and NRs draw 10, or some similar combination. In that case, anyone with any number of points has a chance to draw one of the remaining five NR permits in the general draw. Just don't hold your breath because it will probably never be a SURE thing. ;-) -TONY
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redrabbit
Guest
Last year, the 20% bonus pass reached down into the 10 BP pool for unit 10 archery bull, and down into 12 BP pool for unit 9. As Tony said, no telling where the cutoff for the 10% NR limit was reached.
Those not drawn in unit 10 last year with 10 BP now have 11 BP and should have a great chance to draw.
Those not drawn in unit 10 last year with 10 BP now have 11 BP and should have a great chance to draw.
CAelknuts
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LAST EDITED ON Jan-24-08 AT 03:52PM (MST)[p]
This is all very interesting information. I'm sitting at 10 elk points, and may change my strategy this year. For several years now, I've been applying for unit 9 archery 1st and an easier to draw unit as my second choice. Based on what is indicated above, I may just go back to applying for two very tough to draw tags in premium units, on the theory that if I don't get drawn, I'm getting very close to getting a tag on the 20% pass round. I wouldn't mind waiting a few more years if it meant I'd get to go back to Disneyland for bow hunters again, I mean unit 9.
I know I'll be drawing a strip deer tag sometime in the near future as well, since I have 11 deer points. With that in mind, I think I may try to hit the jackpot on an elk tag. I'm looking forward to doing a couple hunts on my own tags in the next 4-7 years.
This is all very interesting information. I'm sitting at 10 elk points, and may change my strategy this year. For several years now, I've been applying for unit 9 archery 1st and an easier to draw unit as my second choice. Based on what is indicated above, I may just go back to applying for two very tough to draw tags in premium units, on the theory that if I don't get drawn, I'm getting very close to getting a tag on the 20% pass round. I wouldn't mind waiting a few more years if it meant I'd get to go back to Disneyland for bow hunters again, I mean unit 9.
I know I'll be drawing a strip deer tag sometime in the near future as well, since I have 11 deer points. With that in mind, I think I may try to hit the jackpot on an elk tag. I'm looking forward to doing a couple hunts on my own tags in the next 4-7 years.
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redrabbit
Guest
CAelknuts,
looking at last year's unit 9 data and first choice applicants:
1 w/ 14 BP applied, 0 w/ 13BP, 18 w/ 12BP, 51 w/ 11BP, 73 w/ 10BP and 110 w/ 9BP. Considering that only 15 tags go to the 20&% pass and draw odds for the regular 80% are about 2%, it will be many years before the 20% pass round clears out the 130 applicants from the 10-12BP groups that were not drawn last year and the 9BP group from last year is begun to be drawn in the pass round. Not to mention the 10% NR limit effect.
looking at last year's unit 9 data and first choice applicants:
1 w/ 14 BP applied, 0 w/ 13BP, 18 w/ 12BP, 51 w/ 11BP, 73 w/ 10BP and 110 w/ 9BP. Considering that only 15 tags go to the 20&% pass and draw odds for the regular 80% are about 2%, it will be many years before the 20% pass round clears out the 130 applicants from the 10-12BP groups that were not drawn last year and the 9BP group from last year is begun to be drawn in the pass round. Not to mention the 10% NR limit effect.
CAelknuts
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Rabbit, I understand where you're coming from, but there are at least a few other units worth applying for in addition to 9. I've enjoyed a couple elk hunts in 9, and will probably never get to bow hunt there again, so maybe I'll just have to go find a tag in one of the other quality units. One way or another, I'll be elk hunting down there again sometime not too many years out.
Heck, I can always apply for 22 south. I hunted there with a buddy this past September. NAH, I am not wasting 10 points there.
Heck, I can always apply for 22 south. I hunted there with a buddy this past September. NAH, I am not wasting 10 points there.
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mesquitehunter
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It's to bad you guys are stressing over those units. Any archery rut unit is as good as the "QUALITY UNITS" the experts tell you about.
Just because your in a "QUALITY UNIT" doesn't mean your gonna have a chance at a 380+ or what ever you consider quality.Your chance of killing one is about as good as drawing a "QAULITY UNIT" tag.
I'd much rather get drawn every couple years or so and have the same opp. at the same bulls the the "QAULITY UNITS" have to offer.
Just because your in a "QUALITY UNIT" doesn't mean your gonna have a chance at a 380+ or what ever you consider quality.Your chance of killing one is about as good as drawing a "QAULITY UNIT" tag.
I'd much rather get drawn every couple years or so and have the same opp. at the same bulls the the "QAULITY UNITS" have to offer.
A
AZWALKER
Guest
LAST EDITED ON Jan-26-08 AT 09:24AM (MST)[p]Good points but there are units that provide a guy with a greater chance at a trophey bull... its just a fact. Now, you are correct that the majority of hunters are not going to kill big bulls. I also feel the same as you about getting drawn every few years instead of waiting 10 years for a top tag but I can't even get drawn putting in for average units. LOL
Donnie
Donnie
CaElknuts, you may also want to consider 23 north. It should be one of the top archery hunts in the State, but it will only have 15 tags. I would probably go with unit 10 as a second choice. With all the moisture in N. Arizona unit 10 will have some monsters coming out of it this year. Also your odds will be quite a bit better with 150 tags in that unit.
CAelknuts
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Thanks Mike, but I already decided against applying in 23 north or south. There's only 1 non-res tag and surely someone with more points than me will apply there. Haven't decided where I'll apply yet, but probably either 10 or 3A/C first and 1 or who knows what second. I'm not stressing about it, as I'll draw in a few years if not this year. No matter which unit I eventually draw, I'm going to have an oustanding hunt.
With all the moisture this year, what I really want is my strip deer tag!
With all the moisture this year, what I really want is my strip deer tag!
flycrewsupe
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I'm also a non-res who used to want that strip tag. I am sitting on max points. With the new archery hunt for the first time on the strip with only 50 or so tanks and 100-150 tags I think it will be a fight for tanks during that archery season. I think I'm going for a late Kaibab tag,at least for this year. We'll see how that archery hunt pans out.
Gary
Gary
DonMartin
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Let me throw some more numbers in the mix if you really want to see what is happening with the elk bonus points.
Of course, the max is currently 19.
Resident Non-resident
19-1 19-1
18-5 18-1
17-24 17-2
16-49 16-22
15-109 15-55
14-142 14-89
13-199 13-127
12-277 12-187
11-408 11-303
Me thinks that those who are in the 16 and above pool are all early rifle guys. A bunch (most) of them will draw this year.
I think the archery crowd starts to filter in at 13 and lower.
At the risk of offending anyone, the PREMIUM units (IMO only)...Units 3A-3C, 9, 10, will probably require double digit bonus points for NR's to draw.
Of course, residents can draw with minimum points since we have in effect a crack at 100% of the tags!
Last year the son of one of my friend's drew an early rifle bull tag in Unit 9 with 4 bonus points!
My brother drew a 23N early bull tag with 16 points last year..
Don Martin
Of course, the max is currently 19.
Resident Non-resident
19-1 19-1
18-5 18-1
17-24 17-2
16-49 16-22
15-109 15-55
14-142 14-89
13-199 13-127
12-277 12-187
11-408 11-303
Me thinks that those who are in the 16 and above pool are all early rifle guys. A bunch (most) of them will draw this year.
I think the archery crowd starts to filter in at 13 and lower.
At the risk of offending anyone, the PREMIUM units (IMO only)...Units 3A-3C, 9, 10, will probably require double digit bonus points for NR's to draw.
Of course, residents can draw with minimum points since we have in effect a crack at 100% of the tags!
Last year the son of one of my friend's drew an early rifle bull tag in Unit 9 with 4 bonus points!
My brother drew a 23N early bull tag with 16 points last year..
Don Martin
Don,
If I remember correctly all the arguments about the NR getting all their tags in the max point round is because they have more points than the residents. The numbers you post show the opposite. Wouldn't that mean that residents will take more from the 20% leaving non-residents a chance at a couple tags.
It's Bush's fault!!!
If I remember correctly all the arguments about the NR getting all their tags in the max point round is because they have more points than the residents. The numbers you post show the opposite. Wouldn't that mean that residents will take more from the 20% leaving non-residents a chance at a couple tags.
It's Bush's fault!!!
DonMartin
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sremin:
I think what you are referring too deals with deer, not elk bonus points.
Just for giggles, I'll put the deer info up and you can see what why I say that the NR will always get their 10% out of the 20% pass pool, thus none are available in the second draw.
I say that it applies only to the LATE hunts in the PREMIUM deer areas north of the ditch! Usually the early hunts on the east and west side Kaibab, and early 12B hunts do not fill the 10% NR allocation cause most NR won't burn a lot of bonus points to get one of those tags.
The max pool for deer going into '08 is 11.
Resident Non-resident
11-81 11-179
10-166 10-694
9-204 9-422
8-393 8-562
7-680 7-680 UNREAL, huh?
6-1135 6-783
5-2235 5-1069
4-5125 4-1040
3-11,555 3-1805
Currently between 30-34 NR's are drawn each year out of the max bonus point pool. I suspect a few others may drop out, i.e. die, put in for a lesser tag, from this pool each year.
Another interesting note. Out of the 860 people (both resident and non-resident) who are at 10 bonus points, just one off the max, 680 of them are lacking ONLY the AZ hunter education point to make that "magic" step into the max bonus point pool..
Conversely, alot of those AZ residents in the max pool will draw as we are not limited to the number of tags we can draw!
Interesting, eh?
Don Martin
I think what you are referring too deals with deer, not elk bonus points.
Just for giggles, I'll put the deer info up and you can see what why I say that the NR will always get their 10% out of the 20% pass pool, thus none are available in the second draw.
I say that it applies only to the LATE hunts in the PREMIUM deer areas north of the ditch! Usually the early hunts on the east and west side Kaibab, and early 12B hunts do not fill the 10% NR allocation cause most NR won't burn a lot of bonus points to get one of those tags.
The max pool for deer going into '08 is 11.
Resident Non-resident
11-81 11-179
10-166 10-694
9-204 9-422
8-393 8-562
7-680 7-680 UNREAL, huh?
6-1135 6-783
5-2235 5-1069
4-5125 4-1040
3-11,555 3-1805
Currently between 30-34 NR's are drawn each year out of the max bonus point pool. I suspect a few others may drop out, i.e. die, put in for a lesser tag, from this pool each year.
Another interesting note. Out of the 860 people (both resident and non-resident) who are at 10 bonus points, just one off the max, 680 of them are lacking ONLY the AZ hunter education point to make that "magic" step into the max bonus point pool..
Conversely, alot of those AZ residents in the max pool will draw as we are not limited to the number of tags we can draw!
Interesting, eh?
Don Martin
goldhunter
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No, these numbers show exactly what we have all discussed at length in the past. Starting with 16 points and below the ratio of res/non-res far exceeds the 90/10 split. Therefore where these high point non-res applicants apply, the ten percent non-res quota will be reached in the max point drawing leaving no random draw for non-res applicants.
As Don said you can assume most if not all of the very high point holders are holding out for early rifle or muzzy. In fact some are probably holding for the top units (i.e. 9) in a good year (rain or there own schedule). There is a subset of applicants in these groups that are archery hunters. The situation is exactly the same however the top point holders are probably around 13-14 points. The skew of res/non-res is probably not quite as bad but I bet the top units are the same as far as drawing out in the max point pool. So if you do not have a lot of points you are wasting your application on the top units. The math works about the same for units with few tags. For example if one person with high points applies in 23S, he or she will draw the one and only NR tag leaving no random drawing chance.
The ratio of r/nr will continue to skew for the worse as 9 res will be drawn for every 1 non-res in these top point pools. Note, I am not complaining about the 10 percent cap. I just think Arizona should change the system slightly so there would be some chance at the random draw. It would also be nice if the hunts with few tags offered a minimum of two nonres tags, one top points, one random draw. Or do like Utah and just make that one tag a random draw.
As Don said you can assume most if not all of the very high point holders are holding out for early rifle or muzzy. In fact some are probably holding for the top units (i.e. 9) in a good year (rain or there own schedule). There is a subset of applicants in these groups that are archery hunters. The situation is exactly the same however the top point holders are probably around 13-14 points. The skew of res/non-res is probably not quite as bad but I bet the top units are the same as far as drawing out in the max point pool. So if you do not have a lot of points you are wasting your application on the top units. The math works about the same for units with few tags. For example if one person with high points applies in 23S, he or she will draw the one and only NR tag leaving no random drawing chance.
The ratio of r/nr will continue to skew for the worse as 9 res will be drawn for every 1 non-res in these top point pools. Note, I am not complaining about the 10 percent cap. I just think Arizona should change the system slightly so there would be some chance at the random draw. It would also be nice if the hunts with few tags offered a minimum of two nonres tags, one top points, one random draw. Or do like Utah and just make that one tag a random draw.
goldhunter
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Don,
Regarding the deer draw, I bet the draw down in the max point pool will actually slow. I think many of the remaining applicants with 11 points are applying for the "Strip and the Strip only". Also some of the 680 without the Ed point will be taking a vacation down south in the next few years to up themselves to the max point pool. I plan on it this year or next. I currently have 10 points. Maybe the max point pool will actually grow at some point.
Regarding the deer draw, I bet the draw down in the max point pool will actually slow. I think many of the remaining applicants with 11 points are applying for the "Strip and the Strip only". Also some of the 680 without the Ed point will be taking a vacation down south in the next few years to up themselves to the max point pool. I plan on it this year or next. I currently have 10 points. Maybe the max point pool will actually grow at some point.
CAelknuts
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Thanks for the deer information, Don. Glad that I'm one of those 179 non-res with 11 points. When my son and I went down to Phoenix in 2000, we were told by the guys who taught the class that all of us non-residents were pretty much wasting our time and money, since one extra point isn't going to influence our drawing rate much going forward. BOY, were they ever wrong about that.
I'd sure like to fall back down to 2 deer points for next year. With all the rain that the strip, and all of Arizona, is getting this winter, it should be a banner year for vegetation and antler growth. Don't know if my first choice will end in an "A" or "B", but I do know the number part will be 13 for both choices.
I'd sure like to fall back down to 2 deer points for next year. With all the rain that the strip, and all of Arizona, is getting this winter, it should be a banner year for vegetation and antler growth. Don't know if my first choice will end in an "A" or "B", but I do know the number part will be 13 for both choices.
DonMartin
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Oilcan:
I'll be doing a non-resident class on Saturday, April 5, here in Kingman.
It is the last one my team and I will do this year.
To register for this class, you must contact Dave Williams at AZ G&F in Phx, sorry don't have his phone number handy.
Don Martin
I'll be doing a non-resident class on Saturday, April 5, here in Kingman.
It is the last one my team and I will do this year.
To register for this class, you must contact Dave Williams at AZ G&F in Phx, sorry don't have his phone number handy.
Don Martin
A
averagejoehunter
Guest
canuts,
hang in there for what we call "jurasik elk park" (unit 9) you have been there before so you know the story.i like the way some guys say that other units compare.. i beg to differ(don't get me wrong there are some great units for elk) but once a guy hunts unit 9(no cow hunters to deal with) on a normal rut year his elk hunting life as he knew it is over...lol the first time i was in that unit during a normal moisture rut year...WOW!!!.it was almost..almost scary.don is probobly right as far as the elk guys withthe big # bps are going for the early rifle hunts so with unit 9 going for another year for the early rifle that will take out few more high bp guys.but one of my favorite sayings goes"i would rather be lucky that good"
godd luck in the draws.
averagejoe
hang in there for what we call "jurasik elk park" (unit 9) you have been there before so you know the story.i like the way some guys say that other units compare.. i beg to differ(don't get me wrong there are some great units for elk) but once a guy hunts unit 9(no cow hunters to deal with) on a normal rut year his elk hunting life as he knew it is over...lol the first time i was in that unit during a normal moisture rut year...WOW!!!.it was almost..almost scary.don is probobly right as far as the elk guys withthe big # bps are going for the early rifle hunts so with unit 9 going for another year for the early rifle that will take out few more high bp guys.but one of my favorite sayings goes"i would rather be lucky that good"
godd luck in the draws.
averagejoe
For all you Nonresidents hoping to draw a tag without max points, you have to remember that the residents can theoretically draw all of the tags in the 20% pass. Therefore leaving all 10% NR tags to those NR without max points, or to residents without max points! No guarantee for nonresidents, not even max points.
goldhunter
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oh boy a statistical problem. Right off the top of my head I bet you would have about the same chance as being struck by lightning while being attacked by a shark in the Great Salt Lake as there is in haveing all residents drawn in the max point pass for the Strip units. And not just any shark but the rare Jaguar Shark.
goldhunter
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The math:
140 total strip tags, 20% =28 tags to the top point pool, assume all top point applications are for the strip.
Odds that all 28 will be residents: 1 in 6.5815 x 10 to the 15th power(6,581,500,000,000,000), rounded down to the nearest one hundred trillion.
"Priceless"
140 total strip tags, 20% =28 tags to the top point pool, assume all top point applications are for the strip.
Odds that all 28 will be residents: 1 in 6.5815 x 10 to the 15th power(6,581,500,000,000,000), rounded down to the nearest one hundred trillion.
"Priceless"
DonMartin
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LAST EDITED ON Jan-30-08 AT 03:24PM (MST)[p]Jasn:
Only problem with your logic is that it has not happened yet and I dare say, won't for a long time!
Yes this is all based on on mathematical probability, not mathematical certainty, but you also have to look at the past for a reflection of the future.
And in this case (Strip deer) with a better than 2 X 1 number for NR in the max bonus point pool, (and more coming in each year!) NR's who aren't in this pool--are not gonna draw those tags north of the ditch!
Elk are a different matter as the numbers I've posted aren't as skewed like they are for deer.
Don
Only problem with your logic is that it has not happened yet and I dare say, won't for a long time!
Yes this is all based on on mathematical probability, not mathematical certainty, but you also have to look at the past for a reflection of the future.
And in this case (Strip deer) with a better than 2 X 1 number for NR in the max bonus point pool, (and more coming in each year!) NR's who aren't in this pool--are not gonna draw those tags north of the ditch!
Elk are a different matter as the numbers I've posted aren't as skewed like they are for deer.
Don
goldhunter
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Your right and I'm not trying to be a smart a$$. I just think poeple need to be realistic about their chances. We don't know what the max points for any given elk hunt will be and we don't really know how it will proportion out as far as res/non-res. In fact there certainly is a chance that one or two tags may pass through to the random drawing in even the Stip deer hunts. Hoever, this small chance will diminish very, very quickly.
Ultimately if you think you are close to max points for the hunt you are interested in - go for it. If you are not just accept the fact that you are building points. Or choose a hunt where the proportion of res to non-res applicants is much better. These are the hunts where you will have a chance in the random drawing.
If Arizona does not make some changes to the system, soon the draw will in effect be a preference point system for the high demand hunts. Maybe that is what we collectively want. I however, being one man one vote, would prefer to see some combination where you have a chance in a random drawing.
In the mean time, I will probably choose a lower demand early archery hunt first choice and a late hunt second choice(I drew last year so I'm back to one point). For deer, I'll continue building points and can hopefully get that hunter ed point in the near future.
Ultimately if you think you are close to max points for the hunt you are interested in - go for it. If you are not just accept the fact that you are building points. Or choose a hunt where the proportion of res to non-res applicants is much better. These are the hunts where you will have a chance in the random drawing.
If Arizona does not make some changes to the system, soon the draw will in effect be a preference point system for the high demand hunts. Maybe that is what we collectively want. I however, being one man one vote, would prefer to see some combination where you have a chance in a random drawing.
In the mean time, I will probably choose a lower demand early archery hunt first choice and a late hunt second choice(I drew last year so I'm back to one point). For deer, I'll continue building points and can hopefully get that hunter ed point in the near future.
CAelknuts
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Well, our licenses came in Monday's mail, so the apps are getting done tomorrow to be mailed on Friday. I'm thinking it's going to be archery 9 1st and archery 3a/3c 2nd. As for prongalopes, unit 10 rifle and unit 19a muzzleloader.
I'm betting that I'll have 11 elk points and 16 antelope points next year.
I'm betting that I'll have 11 elk points and 16 antelope points next year.
W
WARBIRDUM
Guest
CAelknuts,
You and I think alike on the elk units but I am betting I will have 12 points next year.
You and I think alike on the elk units but I am betting I will have 12 points next year.
LAST EDITED ON Feb-07-08 AT 03:02PM (MST)[p]To answer the original question first, I'm guessing around 12 bonus points.
Now, I'm not saying residents will draw all the tags Goldhunter, I'm just saying its possible for one tag to pass to the general draw for non-residents, for deer included. This is even more probable for elk due to more residents with higher BP's than NR's. I have 11 this year for elk, and I don't even think I'll draw my archery bull tag this year with 11 as a resident!
I agree with you Don, it hasn't happened with deer yet since the 20% pass change, but it can. Its important to think about how we spread this word of draw odds though and its impact so here's my stab at it:
I did the math for deer, and I'm finding about a:
1 in 1300 chance
that one tag could pass through to the general pool for nonresidents deer. Not likely, but not unrealistic either. This is assuming that every single max piont holder applied all for same tag in 13B only, which is conservative.
I assumed that there were 16 tags for simplicity and to make it an even 8 and 8 split (17 last year for 13B). I also assumed that the drawing outcome would be approx. 30% residents and 70% for the first 10 tags. This is very realistic, and would mean 3 and 10 tags respectively. Then residents would need to draw all the remaining 6 tags, to be lopsided 9 vs. 7, and let one tag pass through. It doesn't have to happen in this exact order, since drawing 9 of 16 tags at .31% representation comes to 1 in 1100 odds. These are both more realistic estimates than any I have seen yet so I wanted it to be known. These odds were better that one tag will fall through to nonresidents in the general pass draw for deer, than I will draw either of the out of state sheep tags or raffles that I apply for every year! Think about that and what statements like "you have almost no chance" really mean, should I not apply for these tags since I have "no chance"?
I just wanted to put things into perspective for those telling nonresidents not to apply and they have no chance. NR's are usually going to draw 10% of the tags no matter in what pass, so its not going to affect my draw odds as a resident or yours, only theirs. Why not tell them to apply if they want, just they have a small chance and give some hope with more realistic numbers and let them make the choice! It only helps our state wildlife and that is what the money is ultimately for. I encourage all nonresidents to apply for any tag they wish (because are limited to 10%); they help the local economy and pay good money for their tags and license fees. I think more people need to think about how they spread word of negativity.
By the way, I bet I'll have 12 points for elk next year, and I apply for archery tags!
Now, I'm not saying residents will draw all the tags Goldhunter, I'm just saying its possible for one tag to pass to the general draw for non-residents, for deer included. This is even more probable for elk due to more residents with higher BP's than NR's. I have 11 this year for elk, and I don't even think I'll draw my archery bull tag this year with 11 as a resident!
I agree with you Don, it hasn't happened with deer yet since the 20% pass change, but it can. Its important to think about how we spread this word of draw odds though and its impact so here's my stab at it:
I did the math for deer, and I'm finding about a:
1 in 1300 chance
that one tag could pass through to the general pool for nonresidents deer. Not likely, but not unrealistic either. This is assuming that every single max piont holder applied all for same tag in 13B only, which is conservative.
I assumed that there were 16 tags for simplicity and to make it an even 8 and 8 split (17 last year for 13B). I also assumed that the drawing outcome would be approx. 30% residents and 70% for the first 10 tags. This is very realistic, and would mean 3 and 10 tags respectively. Then residents would need to draw all the remaining 6 tags, to be lopsided 9 vs. 7, and let one tag pass through. It doesn't have to happen in this exact order, since drawing 9 of 16 tags at .31% representation comes to 1 in 1100 odds. These are both more realistic estimates than any I have seen yet so I wanted it to be known. These odds were better that one tag will fall through to nonresidents in the general pass draw for deer, than I will draw either of the out of state sheep tags or raffles that I apply for every year! Think about that and what statements like "you have almost no chance" really mean, should I not apply for these tags since I have "no chance"?
I just wanted to put things into perspective for those telling nonresidents not to apply and they have no chance. NR's are usually going to draw 10% of the tags no matter in what pass, so its not going to affect my draw odds as a resident or yours, only theirs. Why not tell them to apply if they want, just they have a small chance and give some hope with more realistic numbers and let them make the choice! It only helps our state wildlife and that is what the money is ultimately for. I encourage all nonresidents to apply for any tag they wish (because are limited to 10%); they help the local economy and pay good money for their tags and license fees. I think more people need to think about how they spread word of negativity.
By the way, I bet I'll have 12 points for elk next year, and I apply for archery tags!
Pruney
Active Member
- Messages
- 261
Red Rabbit,
Do you have numbers on second choice apps for Unit 9? I am guessing that more than a few put early rifle first and archery second.
By my estimates for those with 11 BPs, it will likely take until 2011 to clear the group in front of you. Maybe a year sooner for residents a year later for NR, assuming everyone stays consistent in their application patterns. It would be interesting to see if people flop back and forth on their choices.
Do you have numbers on second choice apps for Unit 9? I am guessing that more than a few put early rifle first and archery second.
By my estimates for those with 11 BPs, it will likely take until 2011 to clear the group in front of you. Maybe a year sooner for residents a year later for NR, assuming everyone stays consistent in their application patterns. It would be interesting to see if people flop back and forth on their choices.
goldhunter
Active Member
- Messages
- 434
Odds: 1 in 1300 for one potential nr tag to pass through. Then you have to multiply those slim odds against additionally slim odds in the random draw, perhaps another 1 in 1000. This would result in 1 in 1,000,000. In any practical terms I do call this "almost no chance". As far as comparing this to any random draw for NR shaeep tag, the sheep tag is much easier to draw. In fact I doubt you could find a raffle draw with that bad of odds. And these staggering odds become multiplied exponentially over just a few years if the current system doesn't change. One more thing regarding the NR sheep draw or raffle tags you may apply for:in those drawings everybody has the same odds.
I do not make these points to discourage anybody from applying. I, in fact, continue to apply. My only reason for making this argument is to point out that the current system is a defacto preference point system not a bonus point system. And again I register my NR no count vote for a small adjustment that would correct this situation.
I do not make these points to discourage anybody from applying. I, in fact, continue to apply. My only reason for making this argument is to point out that the current system is a defacto preference point system not a bonus point system. And again I register my NR no count vote for a small adjustment that would correct this situation.
B
Bulzeye
Guest
I agree that a system similar to Nevada's multiplier system would be the way to go. This would give a little better advantage to those who have been waiting the longest.
I'm not a fan of true preferance point systems. I'd rather have at least a small chance to draw each year I apply.
I'm not a fan of true preferance point systems. I'd rather have at least a small chance to draw each year I apply.
M
mesquitehunter
Guest
LAST EDITED ON Feb-13-08 AT 08:59PM (MST)[p]Sremim is right,but alot of you guys fail to listen to someone who knows what he's talkin'about. One thing for sure while every body is worried about the top units I'm going hunting with the chance at a real big bull in a no name unit within the next couple of years, resident or non resident it don't matter.
The smart money is on the guy that will put in a more reasonable hunt as his second choice while he builds the points. Of course if he draws they're gone but at least you got to go! That way he may draw a tag early on one of the hunts where you don't have to be in the max pool to have a decent chance. Any bull elk tag is better than no elk tag! The max point issue will get fixed at some point in the future when it's on the agenda. I think it comes up in the next couple of years. Then we will work to get it fixed for you guys. Many on here have spoke to members of the commission already about the issue. They know it exists. It's really only been in play for the last couple of years so in reality your chances really haven't been hurt to badly.
NICE TRY JASN....SO MUCH NON RES. NEGATIVITY ON YOUR PART....MUST BE A MOTIVE. I AM A NR, & WILL DRAW THAT TOP FLIGHT BULL ELK TAG IN THE NEXT 3-4 YEARS. THIS YEAR I LUCKED OUT WITH A 12A WEST LATE DEER TAG FOR NOVEMBER. THANKS FOR THE ENCOURAGEMENT.......YD.
YD, Did you have max points for deer?
NO negativity or motive here, I'm more of a realist. Some state that you have no chance without max points. If you're a practical type of guy, you'd say there is no chance because it is indeed so small.
I simply acknowledge that the possibility DOES exist for NR's to draw without max points. I did the math and gave my estimated odds of it happening in a very specific scenario (13B rifle deer this year). VERY LOW chance, but I state that there is indeed a chance of it happening in any unit. In unit 12AW the odds are significantly higher, due to the increased # of tags over 13B and the fact that it is not the most desired unit in the state.
To the original post, I did not draw an archery elk tag in a premium unit with 11 bp's as a resident. Non-residents have even lower chances. Congrats on the tag, and good luck on your hunt.
NO negativity or motive here, I'm more of a realist. Some state that you have no chance without max points. If you're a practical type of guy, you'd say there is no chance because it is indeed so small.
I simply acknowledge that the possibility DOES exist for NR's to draw without max points. I did the math and gave my estimated odds of it happening in a very specific scenario (13B rifle deer this year). VERY LOW chance, but I state that there is indeed a chance of it happening in any unit. In unit 12AW the odds are significantly higher, due to the increased # of tags over 13B and the fact that it is not the most desired unit in the state.
To the original post, I did not draw an archery elk tag in a premium unit with 11 bp's as a resident. Non-residents have even lower chances. Congrats on the tag, and good luck on your hunt.
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