CO draw numbers/process 2017

[mntman]

Now that CO reissues all elk/deer/bear/pronghorn tags, how do you think it will affect next years draw tag numbers?

I think it will be a surprise when tag numbers are issued next year for all.
Reason why.... for example unit "X", the goal is to harvest 100 animals each fall, average success rate for unit "X" is 50%, so 200 tags are required. However in past on average 10% (guesstimation) of tags were returned (not being used) so an additional 20 (10% of 200) were issued to make up for returned tags to accomplish harvest goal of 100 animals.
However, now that all returned tags are put back into the system and being used, this year for that unit animals taken will be 110 (10 above objective). So next year and all future years tags issued will be 200 unlike in years 2015 and prior of 220.

Granted there are many other factors but simply comparing apples to apples (winters are same, success rates, dates all stay same) there will be fewer tags issued (same number of animals being killed though).

Thoughts?


Also, second thought, I have talked to multiple people who said they were surprised at all of the good tags being turned in this year. They are thinking they will just apply for a point next year and then take their chances in the leftover pool come august...
Do you think there will be enough hunters doing this same thing to resulting in a positive or negative effect?



Mntman

"Hunting is where you prove yourself"

 

[elks96]

First of all when I talked with managers, they generally assume that all tags will be hunted. there is no way to truly predict or assign what percentage of tags will be turned in. Every unit and every hunt code maybe different, especially with group applications. Thus on a bottom line they assume that all tags issued will be hunted and that normal harvest rates will apply. They have this as their base. As far as the number of returned tags effecting the overall population, it will have no real effect. The tag I have, there were 150 tags for, so far 12 have been reissued. Of those 12 figure a 50% success rate would mean only 6 bucks being harvested. Ultimately it means very little in terms of overall population. The effect will be minimal. there are many other factors that will have a much great impact on numbers. Way more significant than the reissue will be weather. Already 2 times we have had significant snow fall. If the pattern of cold and snowy continues then it will be much different than hot and dry.

I know that early snow in the units close to me means lower success as the crappy weather prevents hunters from getting out. Bad roads, etc.

As far as playing the game? Again it will have minimal impact. How many people are really willing to risk not hunting at all vs a the stupid low chance you might get very lucky and grab a left over? Better yet how many will risk going into a known hunt vs. ending up with a hunt that they may have no knowledge about?

I did exactly what you described. I went point only in the draw. Passed on an 80% 2nd choice tag in order to have a shot at a tag I really wanted. It worked for me, but in the line where I sat for 19 hours, there were about 40 people behind me very disappointed. Overall it will have minimal impact on anything. The only difference is now when I get unsuccessful in the draw I still have a little hope.

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

People would be crazy to plan a hunt hoping they get a re-issue tag. Like elks96 said the total tag numbers wont change cause they plan a specific amount of success and that all tags are hunted with. The other variable about doing a point only and banking on getting a re-issue tag is nobody will ever know if or how many tags for the unit they want will be turned in. To each their own but if you have the points and the time I would apply for the tag you want, but I'm sure there are some out there who are planning on the re-issues

 

[DirtyTough]

I do feel that it might be easier to draw some second choice hunts now. Why not roll the dice and see if you can get a primo tag instead of a second choice like Elks did? I think it will be a couple years before the new system stabilizes. Guys that don't get a good tag as a reissue will start getting second choice tags again. Guys that get lucky and get a reissue tag will keep trying for them. Just my thoughts on the future with this system.

Regards, Branden

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

It's definitely worth a shot if you don't draw. I was just trying to say I think it would be foolish if you have the points and time to draw your first choice not to do it and rely on the reissue list.

 

[Whiterock]

Returned tags for 2016 season will make no difference in 2017 tag allocation. Hope for a good winter as that is a big determination on the issuance of the following fall tags.

 

[WoodsD9]

I don't think it will change the success rates as much as people think. My reasoning is if you pick up a 61 rifle tag off the reissue list you will approach the hunt with a much different attitude than a guy that waiting 18 years. The guy that waited 18 years is much more likely not to swallow his tag and more likely to fill his tag on an immature bull just to have something to show from it. If you didn't lose any points to receive the tag I feel you will be more likely to hold out and swallow a tag if you have to.

I see this every year in the NW units as guys kill 300" bulls just because they want something to show for the 20+ years they waited.

 

[mntman]

elks96,
that is very surprising to me that they do not figure in a % of tags that are returned. Just in one year (from what average joe seen) there were a lot of tags reissued this summer/fall. Some units more than others, which obviously has a direct link to # of tags issued for that unit...

However one would have to assume that each year there is a general percentage that can be averaged out over long term to give a fairly accurate prediction.

I am not a game manager though, so there are many things I do not know. Is interesting though.

Another topic,.... this leads me back to wishing that they made it mandatory for every hunter to report at end of season if tag was filled or not, plus some other info, like days in field etc...

Mntman

"Hunting is where you prove yourself"

 

[txhunter58]

IF there is a significant increase in harvest this year, it might affect things, but chances are it won't play a big role.

What we can say with some confidence is that more people will know about it next year and the odds of a good left over will be even lower than this year. There will probably be longer lines overnight at license vendors/CPW offices for the first leftover sale (when you can't apply online).

OR, they may decide it was too much of a hassle and cost them too much in extra personell (more than they have to have to sell unwanted leftovers) and might go to a "next in line" sort of distribution for the coveted tags.

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

 

[oldmossback]

LAST EDITED ON Oct-11-16 AT 07:06AM (MST)[p]I'm With Mtnman , I kinda wish they did mandatory reporting after the hunt.It sure would pull things back into perspective. I think the way they are doing it this year will have to increase the overall harvest in every unit.
In past years all the tags that were turned back in meant one less harvested animal. This year with the tags reissued the harvest should go up. I don't think it will change the amount of tags issued next year but it should change the amount of animals harvested.
All in all, I like the re issue process this year and even though I didn't get lucky enough to get a good tag, it gives me something to look forward to every week.