This is always a great discussion. I have to be a little careful as I write this because as I think back and the last time I did not put an elk in the freezeer was probably 1997, now that is between my wife and I, but I am 6 for 6 after this year.
I am no expert but I did start off as a Wildlife Biology major in college before changing to Ag Business so I somewhat understand models and how they estimate the populations. Now if someone can figure out how to count them individually without haveing to increase tag fease by 12x then the DOW would like to talk to you. So, I beleive their numbers are close...give or take 20%.LOL
Now..with that stated, lets talk about why you don't see elk. And this is just my theory! We are now 7-10 years into Dec cow hunting, at least here in South Central CO, average life of a bull in an OTC unit is probably 3-6 yrs old with a few surviving to 8-9 maybe and cows 8-12 yrs old. Now with the Dec hunts and the conversion of youth tags to hunt open seasons for cows (which I think is great, because they are the future) we are chasing elk from the end of Aug thru the 31st of Dec and don't forget about Jan 31st on PL. Ok, now the term natural selection comes into play, now 5-10 yrs into being chased for 4 months straight you have elk that are staying in deeper, darker, nastier places and coming out later and going back in earlier than they used to. It's not just something that happened overnight, in my own experiences I have watched it in my hunting grounds over time! The elk have changed...has the hunter? Now there could be another topic! Again...this is just my theory!
I am not defending the DOW. I am not sure what the answers are but I do know I love to hunt elk every year, but I hate waiting 6 yrs to hunt Unit 76 but you can't have both...quality and the oportunity to hunt quality every year...so therefor you sit at home for 6 yrs and complain that you can't get a tag and then hunt once or you go out every year and spend a week in Gods country and hope luck is on your side and you see or maybe even get a shot at an elk. And I do meen LUCK...cause thats a good part of me being 6/6!!! And it is all part of the experience!!!!!!
Eric