Discouraging Math Ramblings (WY Moose)

huntjock · May 7, 2015

Discouraging...

With 17 moose points I could wait as many as between 18 and 33 years to draw the premier tag in WY.

Assumptions:
Each year there will be 3 NR tags
Each year all who have points >= to my points will apply for the same tag. This means that all of the current 54 point holders ahead of me and all of the 46 points holders equal to me continue to apply for this tag until they draw.

With these assumptions, it would take at least 18 years to draw (54 divided by 3 tags per year). Then, if all of those who have points equal to me draw before I do, then that would add another 15 years beyond the 18 year min (46 divided by 3 tags). Thus, 33 year wait worst case.

If I am still able to hunt in 18 years, fantastic. That is unlikely. Guaranteed that I will be a resident of that place called "Happy Hunting Grounds" long before 33 years. That's a tag we're all guaranteed to draw.

With all these same assumptions, my 2 oldest kids who have 10 points would be in their 90's were they to ever draw. That is with ~4,000 people currently ahead of them.

Fact (+): point holders ahead of us will drop out, either by death or by drawing a tag or for other reasons ($$).

Fact (+/-): cost of tags and preference points will increase.

Probable (-): moose numbers will very likely continue to drop due to predation and disease and other factores

Probable (-): tags available to NR may be reduced

I would like to see stats from the states with point systems that show the (increasing) average age of those who draw OIL and limited-entry tags.

The math is kinda discouraging. There is a threshold (logical, reasonable, financial) that would suggest that staying in the game just doesn't add up no matter how you look at it.

Isn't it interesting that only 3 of the top 23 moose point holders even applied in 2015.

DW · May 7, 2015

LAST EDITED ON May-07-15 AT 01:53PM (MST)[p]Just lookin at the bighorn numbers posted in the WY forum each point class gets bigger I suspect in 6 or 7 years there will be 1000 max point holders and as u said, 41 tags this year, probaby fewer in the future. Before long you'll b better off buyin a raffle ticket and prayin.

sticksender · May 7, 2015

Building points is no longer a viable technique of acquiring a Moose hunt. Saving your money and buying a hunt is now the smarter and cheaper choice. Especially for anyone just starting or only a few years along in the points race.

30Hart · May 7, 2015

+1...same for sheep!

nfh · May 7, 2015

I know a resident that took 28 years for a sheep tag and 32-34 years for a moose. of course he applied for the point game. IF wolves ever get to the bighorns you will see numbers drop. hopefully it don't come to that

440sixpack · May 7, 2015

If you have a good amount of points, and years , you will draw IF they don't change the quota.

The other thing you can do is dial back what you're willing to settle for in a tag. I just burnt 17 sheep points to get a good but not great tag. I'm 52, I could have held out and another 10 or 20 years and got a bit better tag but I figured a good tag at 52 is better than a great tag at 70. If I'm alive at 70.

Moose are less physical to hunt than sheep , so even if you're not a kid you have time. but are you sure waiting is going to gain you anything? there are less moose and the quality is
lower every year. I'd hunt moose next year if I had 17 points.

Guys just getting in are screwed. save your money and go to Canada .

Stay thirsty my friends

WapitiBob · May 8, 2015

Hunt, at least you did the math. Most aren't willing to take the few minutes and simply rely on magazines to steer them in the "right direction".

littlebighorn · May 9, 2015

+1 to what 440 said,

Unless one is on the top, it seems pointless to hold out for premium tags.
True in every state in my opinion.
Some will "smoozh" a random tag, but kickin the bucket is more likely than a premium hunt for many.

Zeke · May 11, 2015

LAST EDITED ON May-11-15 AT 10:58AM (MST)[p]I thought any bull moose tag was a premium tag!

My thinking is, some guys would rather hunt and some guys would rather worry about the "inches" (read: premium tag). That's totally up to them but there are lots of moose units to draw with way fewer points that will produce B&C bulls.

I'm one who would rather hunt and have a premium adventure and worry a little less about a premium tag... but that's just me.

Best of luck to you all in the future!
Zeke

30Hart · May 11, 2015

LAST EDITED ON May-11-15 AT 12:28PM (MST)[p]+2 440! +1 Zeke!

BuzzH · May 11, 2015

The other key is understanding how the various state draws work.

There are many, many, people applying for the best areas that simply have no chance of drawing.

Luck is always going to play a big factor as well.

If I were to give any advice to a young hunter that really had a desire to hunt the best units, best tags, I'd recommend a high paying job. That's the 100% sure bet that you will hunt the best of the best.

Skip over guys like me that have been playing the state tag draw games for a couple decades, figuring out state draw systems, and doing everything I can to make sure I'm at least in the running for a tag.

Just buy your way to the front of the line.

gznokes · May 12, 2015

There are point games I'm not willing to play any more for the mathematical reasons discussed in this post. WY Moose and Sheep are two of them. I've also bowed out of MT Moose, Sheep, and Goat. I'm still in for other places, but at some point it doesn't make sense.

I remember when the Huntin Fool used to give a little bit of "does the cost justify the odds" advice for most states, but that doesn't happen much anymore other than in the states that are beyond ridiculous. I'm still a member, but I find it a bit disingenuous not to have that conversation with the quintupling of application and bonus point fees. I guess the concern is that if people stop and think about it they will drop out of the point game and then they don't have a reason to subscribe . . .

PleaseDear · May 12, 2015

I have been dedicated and never done Point Code only over the years and all I lack/need is my Desert Ram to have all the OIL species.

I have learned that 'odds' are meaningless in the big picture so I just put in for the unit I know the best or want to hunt the most----it has worked out well for me.

Don't get discourage and go for it---

Robb

Zeke · May 13, 2015

The odds are usually very long regardless of whether a drawing system has points or is totally random. Some will draw, most will not, regardless of the system because the demand out-strips the supply.

Robb is totally correct. You cannot draw if you don't apply! I've rarely bought points only. It just doesn't make sense.

Please spread the word how terrible the odds are. It'll then increase for those who continue to actually apply.

Zeke

Mallards_Only · May 14, 2015

>There are point games I'm not
>willing to play any more
>for the mathematical reasons discussed
>in this post. WY Moose
>and Sheep are two of
>them. I've also bowed out
>of MT Moose, Sheep, and
>Goat. I'm still in for
>other places, but at some
>point it doesn't make sense.
>
>
>I remember when the Huntin Fool
>used to give a little
>bit of "does the cost
>justify the odds" advice for
>most states, but that doesn't
>happen much anymore other than
>in the states that are
>beyond ridiculous. I'm still a
>member, but I find it
>a bit disingenuous not to
>have that conversation with the
>quintupling of application and bonus
>point fees. I guess the
>concern is that if people
>stop and think about it
>they will drop out of
>the point game and then
>they don't have a reason
>to subscribe . . .
>
>
>

Couldn't agree more. I, too, am out of WY and MT sheep, moose, etc. Doesn't make financial sense. I don't care what HF says. Sure, someone has to draw but the odds are astronomical and will always remain so. I'd rather take the money spent on points for 20+ yrs for the slim chance of drawing and use them to pay for a hunt while I'm young and can enjoy it. Sometimes, I wonder if HF doesn't get a cut of app fees from some of these states as they sure seem to be whores about recommending "apply, apply, apply" when the odds are slim, slim, none.

sticksender · May 14, 2015

mallards, they charge 50.00 per state per applicant for their application service. I'd never use it because it's way too easy to do yourself online in a couple minutes in most states. But apparently a lot of guys do use this service.

I'll give them credit though, on some states, like Oregon they actually don't recommend applying at all due to the pee-poor trophy quality and poor odds.

jm77 · May 15, 2015

All I can say Jock is you have no idea what you are missing. If you think it's worth waiting for that "one" area to hunt moose, that's your choice. There are several other areas where "book" bulls are available that you could be hunting in. Look what Zeke and 30hart did the last two years.

huntjock · May 15, 2015

Thanks, jm77.

+1 for all the comments here. This is why I love MM (I am more of a browser than a contributor, obviously).

pm sent to Zeke and 30hart