Draw odds for G with 2 1/2 pts

opbuckslayer · Feb 20, 2011

Does anyone know what our group odds will be for a G tag? There are four of us in the group, three of us have 3 pts and one of us has 2 pts. I'm guessing that will give us 2.5 pts and the odds show 100% for 3 pts and 68% for 2 pts. Will it put us at 100%,68% or somewhere in between? Any help would be appreciated because we can put one of us in the special if we have to. Thanks guys

kilowatt · Feb 20, 2011

All apps have to be the SAME. Now if the one low man applied by himself...then yea all of you would draw.
If all 4 applied together it would be 2.75% since they do not round off to the 2 or 3...using basic math....which might make it about 75% chance on draw according to the charts on a guess between 2 & 3 points.

Brian
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TOPGUN · Feb 20, 2011

LAST EDITED ON Feb-20-11 AT 01:02PM (MST)[p]
Here is what I believe kilowatt is trying to say. All people who apply as a party have to apply for the same choices, but as you are obviously aware, each can have a different point total. Your group of four with 11 total PPs would go into the draw with 2.75 PPs (11/4=2.75) because Wyoming does not round them up or down. In 2010 in the Regular PP Draw for Region G those with 2 PPs had a 63.77% success rate and those with less than 3PPs (in betweeners like you guys would be)and those with the max of 4PPs all drew a tag. In the more expensive Special PP Draw it only took 1 PP for 100% success and less than 1PP was still a 75% chance at drawing the tag. To up your chances to as high as you can do for this year and if the one guy agrees, I would put in three of you as a party with 3PPs in the regular PP Draw and put the other guy in by himself in the Special PP Draw. That way you all up your chances as high as possible without all going into the Special Draw and you have a darn good chance at drawing the tag, rather than dropping your PPs down to 2.75 by putting him in with you. The lone guy should easily draw the tag and if you guys don't you can all go with him and help him get a Booner, LOL!!! Hope that helps some in your decision!

opbuckslayer · Feb 20, 2011

So in 2010 the tweeners all drew a tag but there is no way of knowing for sure if 2011 will be the same? I guess we are guna have to just put in and cross our fingers. Its a long time to wait to see if we made the right decision though.

TOPGUN · Feb 20, 2011

That's correct on both counts because you can move around from one year to the next in what you choose to apply for. A good example was on the elk thread where only 6 guys applied with max points for a good unit last year, so one of the guys put in this year with max points and it ended up that 28 others applied this year for the same amount of tags. That meant the odds of drawing went down the drain compared to last year. That said, I think if you do as I suggest that you will all be hunting there next season, but until you get the word that you drew it's always a crap shoot in a unit like that. Send me a PM when you get the results this summer and good luck!!!

buglinbilly · Feb 20, 2011

I might be wrong, but if everyone drew last year with 3 points and 68 percent drew with 2 points, I would think that with 2.75 points, (assuming odds stay pretty much the same) that you too would have a 100 percent chance of drawing.

After everyone with 3 or more points drew, then those less than three and more than 2 would most likely get a permit if I understand Wyoming's draw correctly.

Please explain if I am wrong.

Have a good one. BB

TOPGUN · Feb 20, 2011

buglinbilly---You can't go strictly by last years draw because this year there will be people in the draw with 5 points max, so that will lessen the chance for ones with fewer points. How much will depend on how many put in with more than their 3 points. That's why it's not a lock for this year, but pretty good!