Not much of a chance if you want a decent tag, and a decent tag by Oregon standards isn't great. there is a tag draw book put out, if you have a unit in mind I could tell you what your chances are but don't expect much of one . Oregon is just like Wyoming, 25% of the tags go to anyone and points don't matter but then the limit of non res tags comes into play, and Oregon treats the NR hunter the most unfairly of about any state.