OK, So I had to figure this out for myself. Take a look at this logic and see if you agree. I may be changing my opinion.
These numbers are relatively close to actual, just rounded for simplicity. Lets say there are 6000 elk/deer combo tags, 10,000 people apply, giving odds of 60% draw success. For every year you don't draw you accumulate a bonus point (one extra chance in the hat) so with 40 % unsuccessful applicants there should be about 4000 people with their name in the hat twice, equates to14000 total chances in the hat. Following me so far?
Tags People ?Names in the hat?
6,000 10,000 14,000
or simply
6 10 14
Lets say this is the break down from above, 60% with 1 name in the hat, 40% with 2 chance in the hat.
Albert 1
Bob 1
Carl 1
Dan 1
Ed 1
Fred 1
Gary 2
Hank 2
Ivan 2
Jack 2__
14
If 1 tag is drawn:
Those with 1 shot have 1 in 14 or 7%
Those with 2 shots have 2 in 14 or 14%
Now the draw will take place until 6 tags have been drawn, so:
Albert has 7% + 7% + 7% + 7% + 7% + 7% = 42% chance of drawing
while
Jack has 14% + 14% + 14% + 14% + 14% + 14% = 84% chance of drawing
Now there is some statistics that also come into play but dive in way deeper than I want to go, the end impact would be slightly better odds based upon each time a name is drawn the pool is getting smaller, but again not significant enough to tackle
Summary: 42% chance or 84 % chance, worth $20? I think so if my math and logic is correct;-)