How many bonus points did you have?

[mesquitehunter]

I have tried to figure out the bonus point system and after this year I'm even more confused than ever.

I know of a guy who drew a sheep tag 2nd choice 3 bonus points.
I know of at least 12 people put in for the same tag 1st choice with 15+ bonus points.

My sister inlaw finally drew a rifle deer tag in unit 42 2nd choice, after 4 years of applying with no results. Her first choice was a muzzy tag in the 39 thru 42 units.

My father had 6 bonus points for deer and applied rifle deer unit 42 1st choice and unit 43a&b, 44a&b 2nd choice no results. Last year he had 12 points on sheep and the guy who drew the tag had 4 points. That tag was a 1 tag unit.

I drew a unit 39 thru 42 muzzy tag with 3 bonus points first choice and no second or third choice.
I know of two NR that got the same tag with 2 bonus points.
My brother has been putting in for the same muzzy tag first choice for seven years now.

So as far as I'm concerned, all the hype on bonus points is just a confidence builder. I can go on and on with situations of people getting drawn with no points and people with a ton of points not getting drawn.

 

[DonMartin]

LAST EDITED ON Jul-31-08 AT 01:14AM (MST)[p]Bonus points are NOT preference points, they are different.

Remember all the bonus points do (unless you are in the max pool) is to give you a better CHANCE to draw.

We do this example all the time in Hunter Ed and MOST of the time it works.

We hold mock draws and give students bonus points from 1 through 15. We let them pick out random numbers from a hat, just like the computer does and we look to see who has the lowest number in the draw.

Since the draw is based in mathematical probability not mathematical certainty, MOST of the time those with the higher number of bonus points will draw a low number.

The neat thing about this system is that even with one point you can draw a low number and get a tag.

So look at this way. If you have 15 chances to draw a low number and I have one, who has the best CHANCE to get a low number? Yep, you do, but there is always the POSSIBILITY that I could draw a low number with my one chance, but it doesn't happen too often.

I've got a sheep hunter this year that drew a tag and this was the first time he applied! Lucky? you bet he was!

There is a family of four from Kingman who drew Strip deer tags (Unit 13B) as a party of four and they didn't have close to max points, matter of fact I had more bonus points than they did. How did they do it? Well first of all they are AZ residents, and even though they added up the total points the four people had and divided it by four, they cracked the nut by getting a super low number.

And remember in group applications its all go or none go. It is sure not the way to apply for premium tags! But it worked for them.

I know this is kinda confusing, but its the way it is and I don't see the G&F Dept. scrapping this system anytime soon.

Don Martin

 

[redrabbit]

The nice thing about the bonus point system is that everyone still has a chance to draw, unlike a straight preference point system.

Here is how the AZ draw system works.
http://www.azgfd.gov/pdfs/eservices/DrawDescription.pdf

As you can see, a person may draw their second choice in the 20% bonus pass if they have enough BP to be considered, and not even have achance to draw their first choice. This may have been the case with the people you mentioned who drew 2nd and not 1st choice.

The bonus point system is no guarantee that having more BP will get you drawn before a first timer. Those with more BP also tend to put in for hard-to-draw hunts. But being in the max pool sure does help. It took 16 years for me to draw an antelope permit, but in the same time I have had 3 archery and 2 rifle bull tags in unit 9, 2 elk tags in 11M, and a cow tag in 9. Sometimes it's just being lucky or unlucky.

Everything Don has said is correct. Know how the system works, and apply for hunts that your number of bonus points will do you some good, unless you are willing to likely wait over a decade for a unit 9/10 archery bull tag, or unit 12/13 deer tag.

Doug~RR

 

[sancarloshunter]

I agree. My uncle and his Son drew a UNIT 10 bull tag and this was there first time ever puting in and I haven't been drawn for elk in the last 4 years.

 

[maddglasser]

LAST EDITED ON Jul-31-08 AT 08:32PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jul-31-08 AT 08:30?PM (MST)

LAST EDITED ON Jul-31-08 AT 08:29?PM (MST)

I am familar with what mesquite is asking
I know of 3 max point holders that applied for the same sheep tag as residents and did not draw! How does that happen when a hunter with 3 points does draw? Not to say the guy does not deserve it, but how important are b points as opposed to luck? Sheep tags are tougher to draw than strip tags even with max points on both. I think all the numbers and stats are BS. Analyze till your blue in the face and still the lucky one gets the tag! I think the max pool may not exist for some hunts! Anyone who applies still has a chance, slim or not! I buddy of mine had 11 points last year as a res and did not draw a muzzy tag but a NR friend drew the same tag,#1, with 5 points, makes no sense to me. Can anybody explain that one? The ONLY thing "the DON" says that is correct is "yep, he got lucky"

 

[AZBuckSnort]

The bonus point(s) represent the number of random numbers the computer is going to select for your application. If you have 5 BP's (forget how you earned them, your total is 5 for this exercise) you'll generate 5 random numbers plus a random number for that year's application for a grand total of 6 random numbers. The computer will look at the 6 numbers and attach THE LOWEST NUMBER to your application and return the other 5 numbers back into the random number pool. You do not have 6 numbers or 6 applications or 6 draws, all of which I have heard as gospel at one time or another. You only have one number affixed to your application in each round of the draw. Now remember, the computer will re-issue those numbers prior to each phase of the draw.

The random numbers will be issued through all three rounds of the draw: the 20% pass, the initial round looking at first and second choice positions on your app, and finally, the last round where the computer will look at positions 3 through 5 on your application, if you filled any of them in.

The object is to "win" (by pure random luck, enhanced the more chances you have to get a low random number) the lowest numbers in the random number pool. You tell me, isn't it true that in the world of statistics your chances of winning a low number increase in relation to the number of chances you get at a low number? Wouldn't it be easier to roll a 7 with a pair of dice if you were given 2 chances to roll rather than only one? How about if you were given 10 chances rather than two? OF COURSE THEY WOULD! Does that mean that the guy with only one roll can't get lucky and roll a 7, while you toss those dice 10 times and never do? Sure, it happens all the time.

So, in an example as described in the post on this thread here's what happened:
The guy with 11 BP's drew a total of 12 random numbers that were all higher than the lowest number drawn by the NR applicant with 5 BP's, and, the NR applicant's lowest number was low enough to get him a 20% pass pool tag OR there wasn't 10% of the total tags available for that particular hunt issued to NR applicants in the 20% pass round, so he drew a permit in the next phase of the drawing as NR can draw up to 10% of the total number of permits issued for that hunt.

The bottom line is you want every dang BP you can get as they do work and an applicant is far better off having as many bonus points as he/she can earn rather than relying solely on luck.

The frustration you all describe no doubt comes from a sense of
"fairness" as is it fair that an applicant can apply for 23 years for a sheep tag and not draw, while a teenaged NR can apply for the first time and draw the sheep unit in your backyard that you've dreamed of hunting for a quarter century? Of course that doesn't seem "fair"; however, IMO, it is the best system that still allows for the stroke of luck to score you a permit with no or few BP's, rather than a true preference point system whereby you know you will not draw a tag for 5, 10, 25, or never years!

 

[maddglasser]

This is the best system without a doubt. Can a few changes be made? IMO yes, some people will never draw a sheep tag they've applied 30 yrs for already. BUT one thing is certain, the people who only buy the points will not draw. So many people say don't bother, you don't have enough points to draw that tag, I think they are selling themselves a little short.

 

[OutdoorWriter]

Good recap, AZBucksnort.

Maddglasser,

There's also a separate rule that governs sheep tags in regards to the BP system. Here it is:

D. The Department shall not make available more than one
hunt permit-tag or 10% of the total hunt permit-tags,
whichever is greater, for bighorn sheep or buffalo in any
draw to nonresidents. The Department shall not make
available more than 50% nor more than two bighorn
sheep or buffalo hunt permit-tags of the total in any hunt
number to nonresidents.

 

[Heat]

OK,

Here we go. In the first post, just substitute "raffle ticket" instead of bonus point, and think of a drawing at the county fair. With thousands of the same tickets in the hoppper, overall, what difference does it make if you buy 5 tickets or 10, not much right?

On to Maddglasser's post, I call BS, not on what you're repeating, but what your friend told you in the first place. According to the way the draw works, that is impossible.

On to AZBucksnort's explanation. That don't work either. There is no consideration of the random number in the bonus point only round unless there is more applicants remaining in that point group than there are tags remaining in the 20% (which happens in each and every case in regards to the 20% part of the sheep drawing). Tag number 1 goes to a person in the highest bonus point group, either THE person with the highest number of bonus points out of anybody that put that as a first or second choice, or the person with the highest random number from the highest point group remaining, which has more applicants in that group than there are tags remaining in that round.

There is no way a person with 5 got tag #1 if there was an applicant in there with 11. In that case either the person who said they had 11 put in with someone else and their bonus points averaged to something less than 5, they didn't put in where they said they did, or the system completely screwed up, in which case the friend is owed a tag! In that case I would take it to the Commission and insist on the tag.

I have a feeling that in reality the situation was NOT as described above.

Nick

 

[Heat]

I'm pretty sure the draw works as described in the regs. I feel confident in the way the bonus point only part of the draw works. I have made draw choices based on the knowledge of typical draw preferences among applicants, the number of bonus points required to draw in the 20%, and the number of bonus points I had. In each case where I expected to draw in the 20% bonus point only round, I did. In cases where I knew I was only in the 80% random pool, I knew the drawing was pure luck of the draw for me. In some instances I drew and some I didn't as to be expected.

Nick

 

[OutdoorWriter]

Instead of several confusing explanations, maybe we should just post an accurate one staright from the people who conduct the draw. ;-) -TONY

****

B I G G A M E D R A W I N G P R O C E D U R E

Before each of the three passes in the drawing, each application is processed through a random number generator program. One random number for the application, plus an additional random number for each of the group bonus points, is generated for that application. The lowest random number generated is used for the application in that pass of the drawing.

Group bonus points are calculated by adding the genus bonus points, loyalty bonus point and hunter education bonus point for each applicant on an application and dividing that total by the number of applicants. If the result has decimal digits greater than ".49", it is rounded up to the next whole number; otherwise it is rounded down.

When an application is read and the hunt choices are checked for available permits, there must be enough permits available in a hunt choice for all applicants on the application, including non-resident caps; if not, the application is passed and the next one is read.

The Big Game Drawing procedure, including the 20% bonus point phase, will be processed as follows:

First Pass (20% Bonus Point)
Twenty percent of authorized tags in each hunt for deer, antelope, elk, turkey and javelina may be issued in this pass. Twenty percent of the total authorized tags for both bighorn sheep and buffalo may be issued. Although twenty percent are available, nonresident caps are still in effect.

1. Each application is assigned the lowest random number from those generated for it.

2. The application file is then sorted by group bonus points in descending sequence within genus and then by random number within the bonus point groupings.

As each application is read, the first and then second hunt choices are checked to see if there are any permits available as part of the 20% bonus point allotment. If there are enough permits available for each applicant on the application without exceeding the 20% allotment or the nonresident cap, the permits are issued to that application. If not, the next application is read and the first and second hunt choices are checked until the entire application file is read. Any unissued permits from the "bonus point phase" will be returned to the available permits for each hunt. The Drawing will then continue to the next two passes.
Second Pass (1st and 2nd Hunt Choices)

3.For all applications which were unsuccessful in the bonus point phase, new random numbers are generated for each application, with the lowest random number being assigned to the application.

4. The application file is then sorted in random number sequence (with no regard to bonus points) within genus.

5. The first application (with the lowest random number) is read, checking the first and then the second hunt choices for available permits. If there are enough permits available for either of the choices, for each applicant on the application, without exceeding the nonresident cap when applicable, the permits are issued. The next application in random number sequence is then checked for available permits until the entire file is read.


Third Pass (3rd, 4th and 5th Hunt Choices)

6. For all applications which were unsuccessful with their first and second choices, new random numbers are generated for each application with the lowest random number being assigned to the application.

7. The application file is again sorted into random number sequence within genus.

8. Each application is then read checking the third, then the fourth and then the fifth hunt choices for available permits for all applicants on each application (without exceeding the nonresident cap). When permits are available for one of the three choices, they are issued to the application.

9. After the entire file has been read in the third pass, the tag issuance portion of the drawing has been completed. Applicants are then awarded an additional genus bonus point for each genus for which they were unsuccessful with a valid application. The genus bonus points for each successful applicant are then zeroed out for the genus for which they were issued a permit.
Leftover Permits

Any permits not issued in the above three passes are eligible for the first-come/first serve process. Applications are made by mail (or online, if available) and permits are issued to the first individuals who apply for these hunts. A successful applicant retains all previous bonus points.

 

[maddglasser]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-01-08 AT 06:10PM (MST)[p]Heat- I call BS on you tryin to figure what you don't know what is. I saw the dang tag #1. I can read. I know how many points my friend had- I applied him! Unless you know what your sayin don't accuse people of something. It may APPEAR to be impossible but it happened! Your feeling is wrong, I have proof!

 

[Heat]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-01-08 AT 06:32PM (MST)[p]"I call BS on you tryin to figure what you don't know what is."

English Please?

Also, I was only trying to offer a correction to some logic that wasn't correct.

Geez, touchy!

Nick

 

[Heat]

How is this an accusation?

" or the system completely screwed up, in which case the friend is owed a tag!"

Nick

 

[Heat]

Would you be willing to produce your "proof"?

 

[need4x4]

I follow most of what has been said.

However, for this to be true, doesn't the father have to be a non resident? I don't see how the father didn't get his 42 if they are both residents?

Taken from top/initial post above-

"My sister inlaw finally drew a rifle deer tag in unit 42 2nd choice, after 4 years of applying with no results. Her first choice was a muzzy tag in the 39 thru 42 units.

My father had 6 bonus points for deer and applied rifle deer unit 42 1st choice and unit 43a&b, 44a&b 2nd choice no results. Last year he had 12 points on sheep and the guy who drew the tag had 4 points. That tag was a 1 tag unit."

 

[Heat]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-01-08 AT 07:02PM (MST)[p]Oh, and by the way...you asked. I was giving it my best guess.

"Can anybody explain that one?"

 

[Heat]

Since you like my posts so much I'll have a go at this one too!

"I know of 3 max point holders that applied for the same sheep tag as residents and did not draw! How does that happen when a hunter with 3 points does draw?"

Actually you answered this one yourself by saying for some hunts there is no max points. You're dead on.

For sheep they give out 20% of the overall tags (not individual hunts) to max point holders since some units don't have enough tags to have 20%.

If the 20% fills up before they look at your 3 max points applicants choices, then the units that were not picked at all in the 20% part ALL go to 100% random drawing (still regarding NR's). Maybe in this case your 3's choice did not fill at all in the 20%. In this case the guy with 3 just got a low number and of course, lucky as heck!

Nick

 

[mesquitehunter]

My father is a resident and my sister inlaw is a resident. I'm puzzled.

 

[mesquitehunter]

Ok Heat in your last post you have explained what I was wanting to know. I wasn't sure if the 20% was for each sheep unit or 20% overall for the state. The sheep unit maddglasser was refering to was 44bn.

I know the guy maddglasser is talking about who drew a muzzy tag #1 with 5 points as a nonres and they killed a buck. The guy who had 11 points as a res who didn't get drawn I know him as well. He didn't get drawn this year as again for the muzzy tag. Maybe he's just very unlucky I don't know.

 

[Heat]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-01-08 AT 09:25PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Aug-01-08 AT 09:22?PM (MST)

Seriously, if I was the guy with the 11 points, I would insist on seeing the draw report for that hunt. If that didn't show me what I needed to see, I would protest to the Commission and request a hearing.

Just my $.02, take it for what it's worth.

Here's how it breaks down on the sheep and bonus draw, 90 tags this year, 18 to the guys with max points. That leaves 72 tags out the original 90 that will be drawn by guys with low random #'s.

You gotta figure with numbers like this only 9 max can be NR's. If he was one of the 9 out of the thousands of applications drawn, he had a dang good random #. That's how he beat the guys with the max points.

Nick

 

[maddglasser]

OK heat, now we're(we are) "english" getting to the point, it's all about luck. Yes the more points add better luck. That is what I was wondering. If you want proof, I will send ss# and birthdates on a P.M. and you can check them out. I don't care who drew because i was goin to guide the both. This year it happened again.
A hunter of mine drew 39-42 muzzy as a NR with 1 point but a res did not draw with 9 points. Dare I ask WTF? You seem to have ALL the answers.

 

[Heat]

I don't know man, sounds like those guys are getting hosed somehow. I know a bunch of guys that pick that 39-42 Muzzy hunt and make it that or nothing, and most get it in 1-3 years, 4 tops.

The $50 draw report with the $25 bonus point data breaks this all down to the gnat's a$$. I don't buy it because I don't think I should have to buy something that they should put on the net for all to see. Just blank out the private info and put it all on there is what I say. Most other states have all this info available. I think this would make the Department a lot more accountable for the way things go down in the draw.

Nick

 

[maddglasser]

Nick,
I'm not saying the " men in black" have a plot. It does boil down to luck is all I'm trying to say. If you don't actually apply you will not draw.

 

[Heat]

"If you don't actually apply you will not draw."

No doubt about that. I'm kicking myself now for not saving my pennies and applying for stuff like sheep and pronghorn during my earliest hunting years. I'm over a dozen years behind on the points game now and missed out on all those drawings. My friend drew sheep when we were in high school so it really can happen to anybody.

Nick

 

[Heat]

Here's one for you! What are the odds of this happening? A guy I know was drawn for sheep this year, but here's the kicker, so was his teenage boy. They put in separately! One got 43B and the other 41E I believe. Unbelievable!!!

Nick

 

[mesquitehunter]

Is his name John Vance?

 

[Heat]

Bingo

 

[mesquitehunter]

I heard about that. His wife was a cook on a 39-42 muzzy hunt some years back. We had Will Primos hunting with us. I'm sure she remebers that hunt.

 

[OutdoorWriter]

I believe the most confusion on the BP system comes from thinking the 20% pass, etc. is conducted per each hunt #, It ain't.

Everything is done on a PER SPECIES basis and begins with the person with the lowest random # and continues on down the line. This is why a lot of folks in the 20% wind up with their 2nd choice even though they have oodles of BPs. -TONY

 

[huntazido]

I have good news for everyone who applies for big horn sheep. I stopped applying for BH because I have no strong desire to hunt them. Cool animals, and I look forward to going with a friend who drew a tag this year but I have never really cared too much about them. So........ there is one less person and I will let my 10 or 11 points evaporate. However, I have been buying points for my boys since they were able to put in. I will continue to until they graduate from college and then it is up to them if they want to keep trying.

 

[mesquitehunter]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-02-08 AT 11:04PM (MST)[p]I admire your courage for admiting what you said. I'm sorry you feel that way about sheep. No need to hunt them if you really don't care about them while others have been waiting over 30+ years for a tag.

I have just been buying my son BP's for sheep for the last couple of years because I feel he's to young for a tag (he's 12) and I will do so untill he's out of college as well. I killed a ram when I was 16 yrs old and now I'm 37. It was my second year putting in. At the time I had no idea how important or special it was until my adulthood.

Now saying that, I have a question... As time goes on and more people aquire more BP's,I would think at some time in lets say 20 yrs from now, my son for example whom will have 22 BP's and thousands before him will have even more and he may never reach the point of having max points.

 

[Heat]

Tony,

That is simply not true for everything but sheep and bison.

From the 2008-2009 Arizona Hunting and Trapping Regulations Page 105, R12-4-114 C.2.a

"The Department shall reserve a maximum of 20% of the hunt permit-tags FOR EACH HUNT NUMBER for antelope, bear, deer, elk, javelina, and turkey to issue to individuals and groups that have bonus points. The Department shall reserve a maximum of 20% of the hunt permit-tags for all hunt numbers combined statewide for bighorn sheep and buffalo to issue to individuals and groups that have bonus points."

Nick

 

[mesquitehunter]

Is the bonus point system going to keep expanding like a ballon?

Does each year the max go up one point?

 

[OutdoorWriter]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-03-08 AT 10:01AM (MST)[p]Nick,

The number of permits they have in the 20% pass has nothing to do with how they look at the applications. Two different things. They hold the permits out per hunt (or per species for sheep and bison)but check applications per SPECIES. It would be massive undertaking for them to sort all the applications for each specific hunt#, which is what you're suggesting.

See below, which is direct from the AZG&FD. The drawing for EVERY species is conducted the same way. -TONY


2. The application file is then sorted by group bonus points in descending sequence WITHIN GENUS and then by random number within the bonus point groupings.

As each application is read, the first and then second hunt choices are checked to see if there are any permits available as part of the 20% bonus point allotment.

 

[Heat]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-03-08 AT 10:38AM (MST)[p]You're right.

I think we're more or less arguing semantics now.

There are in fact 20% of the tags from each hunt # considered in the drawing for each species as you describe.

In other words when they do elk, they don't just use up all the 20% on the early rifle bull hunts, and prime archery elk hunts, which you have to assume would be the most popular choices and in the 20% part. 20% of the tags from each hunt all go into the bonus point only part of the drawing. Here's an example of what I'm describing. Unit 10 with 150 archery bull elk tags will contribute 30 Unit 10 Archery bull elk tags to the bonus point only part of the drawing. They will consider Unit 10 archery bull elk in the bonus point only part of the draw until the 30 tags are gone and they go through it sorted first by the bonus point groups, then sorted by low random number, like you described.

"I believe the most confusion on the BP system comes from thinking the 20% pass, etc. is conducted per each hunt #, It ain't."

The way you made it sound, there was no distinction between the way they did sheep/buffalo and other game tags, which of course is not the case.

Bottom line is it comes out the same even if they did a mini draw for each hunt, which you are absolutely correct does not happen!

Win win, we all win! Yeah!

Nick

 

[Heat]

Actually your explanation helped me visualize the way it works on the computer.

In my head, when they had a mini run off amongst those in the same bonus point group, it was for the same tags in that hunt number. You're totally right that drawing like that would be a massive undertaking, and no need to go there, if you sort it by species then all by bonus point group, and sorted further by low random #, within each bonus point group.

Thanks,

Nick

 

[OutdoorWriter]

LAST EDITED ON Aug-03-08 AT 12:03PM (MST)[p]>>"I believe the most confusion on the BP system comes from thinking the 20% pass, etc. is conducted per each hunt #, It ain't."

The way you made it sound, there was no distinction between the way they did sheep/buffalo and other game tags, which of course is not the case.<<

You selectively quoted only part of my message without using the most pertinent part that contains the actual topic, -- how the draw is done, not how the 20% pass permits are allocated.

There isn't a difference with any species on how the applications are looked at, only how the permits are set aside for the 20% pass.

>>They will consider Unit 10 archery bull elk in the bonus point only part of the draw until the 30 tags are gone and they go through it sorted first by the bonus point groups, then sorted by low random number, like you described.<<

No. Again, ALL elk applications are run through together one time for the three different draws. In the 20% pass, if an applicant has a low number and max points, they look at his app and see what hunt he has as #1 and #2. If he has unit 10 as either choice and there are any permits, he gets one. If they are all gone for both his choices, he gets no permit despite having max points. And this can happen for the rut hunts if his number is a ways down from the other max point holders.

If he doesn't have unit 10 but some other units as both choices, he will get a permit if there are any left for either hunt in the BP 20% pool.

Anyway, I think we're pretty much on the same page now. ;-) -TONY

 

[Heat]

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