Letting Out More Tags Than Existing Bucks?

[StraightSix]

I know it's common knowledge that the DWR often lets out more tags than existing bucks. But nearly 2 hunters per existing buck on some units? Seems a little high. Pretty depressing when you think of it in terms of hunters on a unit per buck that even exists on that unit.

Population Objective/Estimate data was gathered from the DWR's Utah Hunt Planner website. Bucks per 100 does and tag number data were gathered from the latest proposal.

 

[slamdunk]

success rates

 

[StraightSix]

success rates

Even with say an average success rate of 30% across the state it seems like a lot...

 

[slamdunk]

I'd have to look it up, maybe @JakeH has it already but i had it in my mind of 17% average success rates on general public hunts.
if it's 30%, I'm hunting the wrong unit ?

I'll look it up and post.

 

[travishunter3006]

I'd have to look it up, maybe @JakeH has it already but i had it inn my mind of 17% average success rates on general public hunts.
if it's 30%, I'm hunting the wrong unit ?

I'll look it up and post.

It’s all the spikes hitting the dirt that account for the majority of those numbers. Lol

 

[slamdunk]

 

[slamdunk]

Even with say an average success rate of 30% across the state it seems like a lot...

Look like 30 is a pretty fair average ?

 

[SureShot]

I love the effort that went into this table, but I believe your calculation for total bucks is a little off. If the buck:doe ratio is 20:100, that means there are 20 bucks per 100 does (120 deer total). I believe the correct formula is 100*20/(20+100) or 16.7% of the population instead of 20% of the population in this example.

So, for North Slope, it would be 5,300*19/119 or 846 total bucks instead of 1,007 total bucks.

But, then you also have to remember that the buck:doe ratio is a post-hunt number. You also have to look at the fawn:doe ratio and calculate the total number of fawns using a similar formula (assuming 50% are bucks) and add them to the pool. Then, you also have to look at the over-winter survival of adults and fawns and factor that into how many are on the landscape come next hunting season.

I'd love to see an updated version of your table after making those adjustments. All of the data is available and I assume the DWR biologists are looking at it this way. As much as I appreciate the data they already share with us, it sure would be nice if they took these extra steps and shared the whole picture with us.

 

[StraightSix]

I love the effort that went into this table, but I believe your calculation for total bucks is a little off. If the buck:doe ratio is 20:100, that means there are 20 bucks per 100 does (120 deer total). I believe the correct formula is 100*20/(20+100) or 16.7% of the population instead of 20% of the population in this example.

So, for North Slope, it would be 5,300*19/119 or 846 total bucks instead of 1,007 total bucks.

But, then you also have to remember that the buck:doe ratio is a post-hunt number. You also have to look at the fawn:doe ratio and calculate the total number of fawns using a similar formula (assuming 50% are bucks) and add them to the pool. Then, you also have to look at the over-winter survival of adults and fawns and factor that into how many are on the landscape come next hunting season.

I'd love to see an updated version of your table after making those adjustments. All of the data is available and I assume the DWR biologists are looking at it this way. As much as I appreciate the data they already share with us, it sure would be nice if they took these extra steps and shared the whole picture with us.

Great points that I hadn't considered and you're right on the buck to doe ratio. My calcs were off. This would mean the bucks per unit would actually be lower on each unit, painting an even worse picture.

Would be interesting to know how many of the 20 or so bucks per 100 does are antlerless fawns in the overall number. A "Tagable Buck" number would be helpful.

 

[StraightSix]

Here's an updated table with the correct total bucks calc using the buck:doe ratio. There are certainly other factors that would need to be considered to get perfectly accurate data, but I think this paints a pretty good overall picture. Besides, how accurate can we possibly get when we all know population estimates are inflated right? ?

 

[SureShot]

Would be interesting to know how many of the 20 or so bucks per 100 does are antlerless fawns in the overall number. A "Tagable Buck" number would be helpful.

They only count antlered animals in the buck:doe ratio. Buck fawns aren't counted. That's why you need to add in 50% of the fawns (factoring survival rate) into the number of huntable bucks on the landscape for the upcoming season.

 

[middlefork]

I guess I'm not clear on the discussion. Why does it matter if there are more tags than bucks? 60-70% of those tags go unfilled.

 

[TheOneRidgeRunner]

Thats the problem with basing tag allocation off success rates.. They TYPICALLY go unfilled but in the off years with early storms etc, the success rates skyrocket any you're left with decimated buck numbers. Then the low buck numbers are followed by doe hunts to get ratios back in line.

 

[elkassassin]

There Shouldn't Be A F'N Doe hunt anywhere In This State!

Thats the problem with basing tag allocation off success rates.. They TYPICALLY go unfilled but in the off years with early storms etc, the success rates skyrocket any you're left with decimated buck numbers. Then the low buck numbers are followed by doe hunts to get ratios back in line.

 

[middlefork]

So manage to a one off event every X amount of years?

Looking at success rates they seem to correlate with more deer on the landscape (more bucks to kill) than weather but I agree it may effect the success rate.

And please show me where doe tags have been used to effect b/d ratios.

 

[slamdunk]

I guess I'm not clear on the discussion. Why does it matter if there are more tags than bucks? 60-70% of those tags go unfilled.

Exactly.
They always over sell based off success rates.

 

[slamdunk]

So manage to a one off event every X amount of years?

Looking at success rates they seem to correlate with more deer on the landscape (more bucks to kill) than weather but I agree it may effect the success rate.

And please show me where doe tags have been used to effect b/d ratios.

The BG Director actually giggled in one of the meetings about the public thinking they purposely remove females for the sole purpose creating B/D ratios.
"It's ludicrous"

 

[notdonhunting]

Thats the problem with basing tag allocation off success rates.. They TYPICALLY go unfilled but in the off years with early storms etc, the success rates skyrocket any you're left with decimated buck numbers. Then the low buck numbers are followed by doe hunts to get ratios back in line.

Doe permits are almost always tied to Agg land

 

[elkassassin]

Don't Think For A F'N Second They Haven't Done That With Elk!

They DAMN Sure Have!

The BG Director actually giggled in one of the meetings about the public thinking they purposely remove females for the sole purpose creating B/D ratios.
"It's ludicrous"

 

[elkassassin]

DRAT Mentality:

We've Only Got 20 Does Left!

But By GAWD There's 4 PISSCUTTER Bucks Still Sucking On Their Mothers With Them!

At Least The Buck To Doe Ratio BS Management Is In Check!

 

[southernutahhunter]

It all starts at being accurate with the post season counts. The deer numbers just are not what is being calculated. To many of us have been around long enough to know that there just is not many deer period. So let’s get that number right to start with.

 

[Hawkeye]

Don't Think For A F'N Second They Haven't Done That With Elk!

They DAMN Sure Have!

Elkster-

Sorry to rain on your parade yet again, but the DWR doesn't even use bull to cow ratios to manage elk. They manage LE elk for an objective number for a unit and then based upon age objective on the bulls. Your complete detachment from reality is mind blowing but it never stops you from spouting off online.

To be clear, I have been critical of the DWR and their methodology for counting animals, but I don't believe for a second that they are printing thousands of extra tags to generate revenue and whacking does just to maintain a certain buck to doe ratio. Stop screaming, do a little research, and educate yourself before you before you go off half-cocked about issues you don't understand and do not even attempt to understand.

And by the way, I may need something a little stronger than "DEW" to make it through our "RIDE" this fall.

Hawkeye

 

[hossblur]

So, if we put out a tag per buck only, and 30% get killed, that helps your buck:die ratio, doesn't produce many fawns though

 

[elkassassin]

Your GRAMMAR SUCKS hossy!

But We Know What You Mean!

So, if we put out a tag per buck only, and 30% get killed, that helps your buck:die ratio, doesn't produce many fawns though

 

[elkassassin]

Bring Whatever Kind Of Drinks You Want To hawky!

Between The 3 Of Us We Should Be Able To Deal With Any Law Officials We Run In To!

Elkster-

Sorry to rain on your parade yet again, but the DWR doesn't even use bull to cow ratios to manage elk. They manage LE elk for an objective number for a unit and then based upon age objective on the bulls. Your complete detachment from reality is mind blowing but it never stops you from spouting off online.

To be clear, I have been critical of the DWR and their methodology for counting animals, but I don't believe for a second that they are printing thousands of extra tags to generate revenue and whacking does just to maintain a certain buck to doe ratio. Stop screaming, do a little research, and educate yourself before you before you go off half-cocked about issues you don't understand and do not even attempt to understand.

And by the way, I may need something a little stronger than "DEW" to make it through our "RIDE" this fall.

Hawkeye

 

[elkassassin]

For Once In My Life I'll Have 2 GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARDS sittin Next To Me!

 

[JB1975]

For Once In My Life I'll Have 2 GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARDS sittin Next To Me!

You have a bench seat??

 

[elkassassin]

hawky's Rig Probably Does!

You have a bench seat??

 

[elkassassin]

I'll Be On Trial!

 

[elkassassin]

We Better Play A Song!

TURN IT UP DOUBLE LOUD!

 

[middlefork]

 

[elkassassin]

The RIDE Might Have A New Meaning Of The HOT BENCH!

 

[slamdunk]

Your cut off the Dew Bess ?

I'm in Vernal tonight for the MDF Banquet tomorrow, I expect to see you there sitting at @JakeH table ?

 

[JakeH]

Your cut off the Dew Bess ?

I'm in Vernal tonight for the MDF Banquet tomorrow, I expect to see you there sitting at @JakeH table ?

I'll be there, but will be a little late.