Montana Moose, Sheep & Goat Open

[30Hart]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-17-14 AT 10:14AM (MST)[p]Draw is open, you no longer have to submit the tag fee w/ your application, but they are now charging a $50 non-refundable fee per species as well as a $20 non-refundable bonus point fee per species to apply. Bottom line is it costs us way more to apply.

 

[sticksender]

Wow, are you sure about the $20 bonus point fee being PER species? Previously they charged $5 per species for the app fee, then a $20 fee for Bonus Points, but that covered your Bonus Point for all species. If so, that means $280+ in app fees for the 4 high-demand species.

I'll definitely be taking a look at whether better odds can be had by spending that money on Supertag chances.

 

[sticksender]

After reading on the MT website, you're correct 30Hart:

"If you wish to participate in the Bonus Point program (to use or gain points), make sure to check "YES" on the Bonus Point questions and include the $20 (nonresident) or $2 (resident) Bonus Point fee for each license/permit drawing applied for."

 

[30Hart]

I know I already applied this morning, cost me $156 for sheep and goat!

 

[sticksender]

What was the additional 16.00....for the convenience fee?

 

[ElmerFudd]

Incredibly poor draw odds are even worse and the application cost is way up. They give out so few nonresident tags that raising the tag fee would not generate much money. Raising the money for nothing application fee and not making the money be fronted will bring in more total applications and money. Oh well.... I'm staying in

 

[30Hart]

Plus they charge you a fee to use a credit card. Yes $10 conservation fee.

 

[PleaseDear]

Why apply so early?

Anyone get their Post card with points and number yet?

Robb

 

[30Hart]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-19-14 AT 08:06AM (MST)[p]Since I apply in multiple states I knock them out earlier when they open. Most my high demand tags' areas don't change. I prefer to do it electronically, it lessens the chance of error...cost me a mountain goat point once on a paper application...still not my fault, got the wrong person reviewing my app.

 

[PleaseDear]

We all apply in multiple states------

We all have that hunting acct. $$ game plan too....

I like your thinking!

Thanks!

Robb

 

[dwalton]

Maybe I'll cash in my max points on a ewe tag, and bail out of Montana.

 

[ElmerFudd]

Just thinking.... if they take in $80 per nonresident sheep application and give out one tag per 250 applications, they get over $20k per nonresident sheep tag issued! I bet that they take in more than 250 nonresident apications per nonresident sheep tag issued.....

 

[sticksender]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-20-14 AT 04:12PM (MST)[p]Elmer, yes you're actually WAY LOW on that estimate. In the latest set of stats, more than 6900 NR's applied for Sheep. Do that math and you'll notice it's over half a million dollars. They issued 9 limited ram tags to NR's, for average odds of about 760:1.

 

[440sixpack]

This whole screw the NR thing is getting old. nobody is more dedicated than I have been but I'm starting to think I'd be better off just hunting in Canada and bunching any drawings that don't warrant the cost.

My wife and I both have max points for sheep/moose/goat in MT, we'll probably stay in the game a while longer and see if enough NR hunters come to their senses and refuse to get hosed and bail . if they don't we will. I don't mind paying but it has to have a reasonable chance of paying back.












Stay thirsty my friends

 

[ElmerFudd]

Nonresidents are allowed up to 10% of the sheep tags per district. But they limit the hunts they can apply in and include ewe tags... so even half that is optimistic. Some districts there are only one or two nonresident tags possible going in, maybe none issued..... anyway I stand corrected. It's closer to $60k per tag actually issued. Raising the tag fees wouldn't do much, might even scare off applications.... the applications are where the money is at!

 

[BuzzH]

ElmerFudd,

Not correct, NR's are limited to UP TO 10% of the NR tags PER REGION....not per UNIT.

On top of that, NR's are limited to applying for certain hunting units each year.

An example would be, say there are 20 tags given for all the Region 1 hunting districts...NR's could draw "up to" 2 tags, but arent assured a single tag. Further, if a hunting unit in the Region 1 areas only had 2 tags, both could go to NR's.

 

[PleaseDear]

+1 buzz----

AND those < 2 > tags by a Region could be Ewe tags drawn before the Ram tags so no Ram tags....

Apply, Apply, Apply-----

Go figure!!

Robb

 

[EVILNR]

I got out of the points race probably 5 years ago. I only apply in Idaho and NM. Odds still suck but at least I'm in the same boat with all other EVILNR's. Yes, the way states treat nonresidents is absolutely ridiculous.

 

[ElmerFudd]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-22-14 AT 11:54AM (MST)[p]Of course, any sheep nut has to stay in for their dream MT tag. I have bailed on some other things, OR for example. It does feel bad when public draw tags bring in funds on the order of raffle and auction tags, $60k per tag issued. I am thinking draw odds will get worse with no money out.

 

[Zim]

Well, now glad I made the decision not to get in the Montana point game when they started it. Was afraid it was just a ploy to get applicants invested in it before "setting the hook". Since I began investing in various state's hunting lotteries it has morphed into a business of who can profit the most off those hunters who will never draw a tag in their lifetimes, not just a method for selling/distributing actual big game tags.

Montana has now made my decision to ever get in their game a no brainer.......$70/species/year plus all the guys in front of me with squared points! That deal is even worse than WY's for any newbies starting from ground zero. You can bet MT will morph their rules yet again in the future when they see the decline in new applicants. How?.........by cheapening the points they sold previously. Sadly, most state's big game lotteries these days are in fact legalized Ponzi schemes.

Since I began buying points in 10 states in 1996, only two have not bait & switched by cheapening my points (Ponzi schemes).............Arizona & New Hampshire. That's it. The rest choose money over ethics.

***********************************
Member RMEF, Pope & Young Club, NRA, UWC & DP Hate Club

 

[littlebighorn]

I was shocked to see that by opting out with a ewe tag, like dwalton is suggesting he will do, it takes one of the NR ram tags out of the running. Since ewe tags count as part of the maximum 10% of the tags given, I can see lots of NRs cashing in their points for a very likely ewe hunt and very few NR ram tags will be issued.
Sounds like we've been sold down the river!

 

[Zeke]

>Sounds like we've been sold down
>the river!

+1

Yet again it happened!

I think the trend in all States is to have the NR pay the freight and never get a tag! The pathetic draw odds will back-up my statemant.

This line of "bait n' switch", as Zim calls it, is going to backfire in the not-too-distant-future! The chit will hit the fan within 5 years! ... or less.

signed, unhappy applicant,
Zeke

 

[ColoradoOak]

I'm very glad that NM never started a point system. With Terk overturned, non-residents won't draw many tags in the future. Another good example of why point systems are largely a joke.

 

[schmalts]

Just be aware the draw odds posted in the big 3 booklet are inflated more than 5 fold for nonresident. With all species most units the res to nonres app numbers are almost dead even, but yet the nonres are limited to 10%.
Do the math and make sure these new fees are worth your time.

 

[Craig]

I have 6 points for sheep and moose. I'm out. I have 4 points for goat. Not sure what I'm going to do. Need to look how bad the odds are and if it's worth the $70.

 

[sticksender]

Craig- On the last draw summary, MT awarded roughly 7% of the total Goat tags to NR's. With average odds of about 125:1. Be careful with that word "average" though. Problem being the point squaring they adopted last year will continue to funnel more and more of the tags to the highest point tiers (13 is max with hundreds of guys at that level). As more and more years pass, it gets worse and worse for the lowest point tiers. Right now someone with max points is 169 times more likely to draw than a newbie. The rate of increase in this factor is hyperbolic. Soon those recently entering the draw will be totally SOL.

 

[schmalts]

LAST EDITED ON Mar-24-14 AT 08:29PM (MST)[p]>I have 6 points for sheep
>and moose. I'm out. I
>have 4 points for goat.
>Not sure what I'm going
>to do. Need to look
>how bad the odds are
>and if it's worth the
>$70.


I can tell you how bad they are. I looked up all the data on the website, yes it is there. For Goats, in the units you are allowed to apply the breakdown of percentage of res to nonres applicants was almost dead even. So, stay with me here this makes a guys head hurt but if nonresidents are limited to only 10% of all the tags, but make up 50% of the applicants, what does that tell you if the odds stated in the booklet as a whole are say 4% for drawing a goat tag in unit ###.
Basicly take a look at the odds listed in the big 3 booklet and cut them 500% and that should get you close to your odds not factoring in the squaring of points. Oh yeah, you forgot about that new rule that just started I think last year. Every point is now squared, meaning that a guy with 10 points more than you has a hell of a lot more than 10 times the chance of drawing over a person with one point.
Half of the moose units nonresidents are allowed to apply in did not award a tag to a nonresident because of the 10% rule.

 

[Zim]

You can't trust anyone. I'll have as many as 20 points in some states this year, and can't wait to burn those before they are cheapened. I am a sitting duck in those states. My plan if I get to burn those is to drop completely out of some states with now bad deals like Oregon & Utah. And the ones I stay in will be where I'll be accumulating only 3-5 points for mid-tier hunts. Any more than that and it becomes a big gamble of getting screwed further.

***********************************
Member RMEF, Pope & Young Club, NRA, UWC & DP Hate Club

 

[PleaseDear]

I too haven't received my non-ressy Proc and hard copy application.
I simply went thru the application process as a non-ressy on-line and in the 1st choice Drop Down it had all the non-ressy units to apply for.

I simply highlighted those units on the unit pages I had already printed out and then I simply backed out of the application process.

Now I can brainstorm and figure out what unit to apply for that Huge Montana Ram!!

Yes---2nd choice Drop Down is ALL non-ressy Ewe tag units.

Robb

 

[muleycrazytwo]

NR never reach the 10% cap because of the way they allocate tags to specific units. I figured the odds taking into account the bonus points, Last year max point holders had a 1/1125 chance to draw a 680 tag. They gave out 2 so the odds were 1/563. 482 odds were 1/441 for the 1 tag.that was for 12 point holders. Newbies had odds of 1/63,500!

 

[440sixpack]

Lloyd Christmas : 1 in a million ?....soooooo..you're saying there's a chance?

I'm going to stay in but it's a suckers bet no doubt about it. all of us who do should be in Dumb and Dumber ourselves.

















Stay thirsty my friends

 

[abqbw]

Muleycrazy,

The way the allocate tags is one of the reasons nonresidents don't approach the 10% max for sure. Doing the math, here are the worst case scenario for lowest nonresidents tag quotas if a region has the following number of permits:

9 permits, 0 nonresident quota, 0%
19 permits, 1 NR , 5.3%
29 permits , 2 NR, 6.9%
39 permits, 3 NR, 7.6%
49 permits, 4 NR, 8.2 %
59 permits, 5 NR, 8.5 %

You get the idea.

Since there are 6 regions, this round-down happens 6 times which keeps the "up to" nonresident quota well below 10%. In 2012 there were 230 sheep permits and the nonresident "up to" quota was 19 (8.3%) and the actual nonresident draw was 12 (5.2%) for all sheep permits. For rams/either sex there were 146 permits, the nonresident max quota was 11 (7.5%) and the nonresident actual draw was 9 (6.2%).

It's like an evil math genius designed the system. It is nearly perfect in awarding the minimum number of permits to nonresidents when a quota of up to 10% exists. It is beautiful in its deviousness. The goal is to keep nonresidents to a minimum and they did a fabulous job. About the only way they could knock it down more would be to add a cap of no more than 10% NR per hunt code. That should get the nonresident actual draw rate down to 2 ram/either sex permits statewide. Under 2%.

 

[sticksender]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-20-14 AT 06:30AM (MST)[p]abqbw, it appears they already impose a 10% ceiling by hunt code, in some cases, when there are more than 10 permits for a hunt code. An example can found in the 2013 sheep draw for district 300, which had a quota of 31 limited permits in total.

In that district, only two total permits were issued to NR's. Both were ewe permits 302-30 (total quota 20 tags). There were 4 first choice NR applicants for 302-30 ewe, but only 2 of these NR's were given tags. There were 12 first choice resident applicants and all 12 got tags. They then proceeded to issue 6 resident tags for 302-30 by SECOND CHOICE.

I see no other possible explanation for that, except that they placed a 10% NR ceiling on that hunt code. With a district quota of 31 tags, there should have been one more NR tag issued (making 3 total NR tags) before ANY second choice tags were issued.

 

[abqbw]

Yes. I have noticed that too when there are 10 permits. Or 20 in a hunt code. What I was alluding to was that in most of the districts there are less than 10 permits and they allow NR to apply in some of them anyway. If they had a 10% max per Hunt code there would be so few hunt codes nonresidents would be able to apply for that NRs would draw 2 to 4 tags state wide.

 

[sticksender]

Yep, understood. What I'm pointing out is another interesting feature of their draw algorithm. I don't believe they "float" the NR ceiling within a region, during the process of the draw. But rather that the NR ceiling is PRE-SET for each and every hunt code, before the draw starts.

So in other words take unit 680.....let's say hypothetically that all the NR apps for 680 were for the ram tags, and zero NR's applied for 680 ewe. This doesn't "open up" 680 ram allocation to allowing more NR to draw it. And vice-versa, if an extremely high number of NR's applied for 680 ewe, NR's still can only draw a pre-set number of 680 ewe tags, and there is no resulting effect whatsoever on the NR ceiling for 680 ram, because it is a pre-set number.

The application services like HF have for years published warnings not to apply for ewe tags in MT, because they claim it takes away NR opportunity for ram tags. There have been entire threads on this site urging people not to apply for ewe, for the same reason. As best I can tell, this is completely false information.

 

[abqbw]

Sticksender. You are exactly correct. I confirmed it via phone with Neil Whitney at FWP. He runs the draw. The "up to" nonres quota of 10% per region is set exactly per hunt code before the draw, but after we apply. Applying for ewe tags has zero effect on either sex/ram tags for nonresident.

In 2012 they dropped 121-00 as a hunt code that a NR could draw, after we applied but before the draw. 502 Nonresidents had zero chance of drawing an either sex/ram tag that year.

The application services actually have it backwards. If nonresidents don't apply for ewe tags those ewe tags have a higher chance of being left on the table by nonresidents. They are allocated and if we don't draw them it just means we drew less tags....

 

[sticksender]

Good job on getting that answer from FWP. It's strongly indicated from the data in their draw tables, but nice to have it confirmed directly from the source.

I finally made the decision to pony up for one more year, and applied for three species. Total non-refundable fees were 226.89. It's a good chunk of money to blow, for the horrific odds. I'll watch the draw for a couple more years. If app numbers don't fall off after this huge fee hike, I'll drop out and start dumping that money into AZ & CO raffles.

 

[abqbw]

Sticksender,

You bet. I always want to know what is really going in in any drawings I participate in. Like you, I'm going to keep applying.

I always thought that the 0 in the NR quota column on one of non resident hunt codes that was on the nonresident applications for that year meant they decided to drop that hunt code where a NR could draw before the drawing was run. Turns out I was correct.

Someone earlier this week insinuated that they could have plugged the 0 in after the drawing because no NR drew that particular hunt code (the drew the other hunt codes in the region and "used up" the regional nonres quota. But that was contradicted by cases where there was a NR quota but it was not filled because residents drew all the tags first.

So I called to make find out what was really happening and learned that they dropped the hunt code as a potential NR tag producer prior to the drawing if the NR quota shows a zero.