Montana Sucker's Bet

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OchocoKid

Long Time Member
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4,963
I'm starting to think Montana is playing us nonresidents. this year the units open to us to apply in seem like they've been cut back which of course will lower the already miserable odds even lower.


My wife and I have both have max points for all 3 like everyone else.

This is the first time I've ever whined about the cost or the odds for any state, but this time it's different, it almost seems hopeless. nobody is forcing me to apply anywhere I'm not blaming MT if I'm being suckered I blame myself. that's what I'm trying to decide.

Has anyone else given up on MT or plan to ?













Stay Thirsty My Friends
 
I gave up when the last license and bonus point fee increases occurred (had max points). Wish I would have used my points when a ewe tag was $755.
 
I burnt my points on a 482 Ewe tag when it was cheap (er) and it is kool country in the Breaks and I saw some Pig Rams!!

Robb
 
Montana is one of the tougher states to justify applying for their trophy species like sheep and etc. IMO only California and Washington are worse, based on the non-refundable cost to apply and near-hopeless odds. But if you're addicted to the western states gambling game, you have to go for it.
 
Yes indeed--- I gave up on Montana years ago, it's a Suckers Game there for Non Residents -- only thing they want is your money $$. Odds are like The Lottery, only worse. This is for ANY of their game animals, period ! Only thing they really want to Sell are the Outrageously Priced N R Elk licenses that you need Outfitters/Guides to hunt with on those Very expensive $$$ Private Ranches , owned very often by the Quite Rich Out of Staters as their Personal Toys. Can you tell you are not welcome in Montana with all the roadblocks they out up ?? I surely hope so !
Jerry Gold--Ft Collins, Colorado
 
Sounds like I'm not alone.

The same thing crossed my mind a few years ago when WY raised their sheep points to $100. but since they are preference points and there were far less applicants I stayed with it when lots of guys quit and I drew my sheep and moose tags.

MT is different though. less tags, less units, more point holders and no set NR pool.

I'm going to find out how many guys have max points if I can, not that max means as much for bonus points , but if it's as many as I think I'm out this year for moose and sheep. maybe goat is worth it.


















Stay Thirsty My Friends
 
Dean,

I would encourage you to stay with it. Having max. points may not mean as much, but it does help. Yes your odds are long but you do have a chance. I look at Montana draws as a lottery situation.
I can speak from experience, drawing a unit 447 mountain goat in 2012 and a unit 340 sheep tag last year. Both with max. points. I plan on giving up Montana when I draw my moose tag. How much having max. points helped I don't know.
Good luck in the draw on whatever you decide.

Don
 
The sucker part is, when an NR draws a ewe tag (which many are now cashing out for) it counts against the NR % sheep quota. That means many of the ram tags that would have gone to NR's go back in the resident pool.
At least that is what I read a few years ago.

Any way you look at it, getting fried by lightning is about as probable!
 
It is hard to walk away from max points in the state with the best sheep in the country. does anyone know if MT publishes how many people have how many points ? I think there are about as many max point holders in MT as there are point holder anywhere else. I don't think they want us to know how bad it really is.

CAbuck you have a valid point it can happen, and what if they change the system to include preference tags like UT it could really increase odds . I feel a lot like Lloyd Christmas, sooo.. you're saying there's a chance !












Stay Thirsty My Friends
 
>The sucker part is, when an
>NR draws a ewe tag
>(which many are now cashing
>out for) it counts against
>the NR % sheep quota.
> That means many of
>the ram tags that would
>have gone to NR's go
>back in the resident pool.
>
>At least that is what I
>read a few years ago.
>

That doesn't come into play for a couple reasons. But the main reason is that, year after year, NR's are issued only about 6% of the sheep tags in Montana. So NR's never get anywhere close to their by-region ceiling of 10%. This coming-up-short is due mainly to the fact the NR's are only allowed to apply for a portion of the available hunt codes.

And by the way, for Moose it is much worse, with NR's consistently getting only about 3% of the available tags.
 
The more I think about the shiras moose situation in the lower 48 just makes me want to go to Canada, pay the $6,000 and stop wasting my time. I've got 13 resident moose points for Utah and 10 NR points in MT.

I hunted a ton in Montana for 10 straight years and I have seen more moose in a weekend in the Bighorns in Wyoming than all my years in Montana combined.

That being said I'd take an OTC elk tag in Montana over elk just about anywhere else.

Imagine what the odds look like 15 years from now.

IMO no big game species with ovaries should ever be killed. Esp female mule deer, moose, and sheep.


"That's a special feeling, Lloyd"

www.cloverleafrifles.com

https://youtu.be/l3xHt-xeNYw
 
LAST EDITED ON Mar-24-18 AT 12:08PM (MST)[p]Yep, I think it was 2014 when MT went from one of the cheaper states, to one of the most expensive for trophy species, in terms of out-of-pocket costs. And since they started squaring points it absolutely makes no sense to start applying now. The year they raised the price so much I almost bailed on goat, but gave it one more try and was shocked I drew. The following year I put in for a marginal moose hunt with somewhat better odds and drew that. So now I'm just wasting ~$80/year on sheep; with max points my odds are terrible (1 in a few 100), but not unusual for a sheep draw.

It does seem like the MT sheep choices this year are slim pickings.
 
There were 218 NR with max points last year for moose alone. Very few drew a tag. It isn't physically possible for most of these people to draw a tag with the current system before they are dead. Max points helps a tiny bit, but not a=enough to be noticeable.
Bill
 
The squared points might help some, but since most guys got in on the ground floor of that system, most everyone is in the same rocking boat!
I just reviewed the Nevada NR sheep draws from last year (same squared point system) and very few top point guys drew a ram tag there as well, even though there are probably a lot fewer top point holders than in Montana.

If Montana didn't have such lug heads, we'd all be out!!
 
Only 219 max point holders for moose applied, that surprises me I thought it would be much higher. but as you say max doesn't mean that much here .


I suppose if you want to stay in but not get hosed you could apply and skip the point fee if you have quite a few points you're still in the game for years. But that's not really me I play to win or I walk away.

I think I'm done with moose for sure.








Stay Thirsty My Friends
 
Of course, it's not worth the money a nonresident pays to enter the Montana moose, goat and sheep draw. I wonder if the almost $250 non refundable the last few years has caused any significant drop in nonresident applications? The dismal draw odds on the extremely limited nonresident allocations and limits on units where you can apply restrictions are pretty discouraging. I'll probably be a sucker and play the fools bet on sheep just because of the hype on Montana sheep, but pass on the goat and moose.
 
LAST EDITED ON Mar-25-18 AT 02:59PM (MST)[p]>Yes indeed--- I gave up on
>Montana years ago, it's a
>Suckers Game there for Non
>Residents -- only thing they
>want is your money $$.
>Odds are like The Lottery,
>only worse. This is for
>ANY of their game animals,
>period ! Only thing they
>really want to Sell are
>the Outrageously Priced N R
>Elk licenses that you need
>Outfitters/Guides to hunt with on
>those Very expensive $$$ Private
>Ranches , owned very often
>by the Quite Rich Out
>of Staters as their Personal
>Toys. Can you tell you
>are not welcome in Montana
>with all the roadblocks they
>out up ?? I
>surely hope so !
>Jerry Gold--Ft Collins, Colorado

Jerry, just wondering what expensive tags that you have to have a guide for here in Montana. mtmuley
 
ElmerFudd,

The sheep hunting is not about hype. Look at the rams that were taken just this last year or found dead. Montana has the best Rocky Mountain sheep hunting that you can do anywhere in the world. Drawing a sheep tag in any state is difficult, maybe more than most in Montana, but the reward is also much greater.

Jerry,

I have been lucky enough to draw a Mountain Goat tag and a Rocky Mountain Sheep tag in Montana as a non-resident. Both hunts were done in prime units, DIY. The goat hunt I spent 9 days preseason scouting and the sheep hunt we spent 12 days scouting. I had friends help on both hunts who were great hunters but not guides. The people in Montana were also extremely helpful on both hunts. The opportunities are there, maybe you are looking in the wrong spots. Both animals were the second largest that I could find on the hunt and both went B&C. Hopefully a Moose tag will also be in my future soon!

Don
 
I am max points also, the draw odds are quite dismal but if you have never drawn a bighorn tag Montana would be the place to do it. I wish they would have kept the full price fees and not dropped the price, they flooded the market just like Colorado is getting ready to do. I have been very fortunate to harvest bighorns in Wyo, Idaho and Nevada all draw tags. I have a good shot at a Colorado bighorn, I have been putting in for sheep tags for 45 years, I have drawn the tags when least expected. It is like winning the lotto. I am going to pull out of Montana and Oregon this year and focus more on hunts for my daughters. That's one less NR in the pool for you all. If you haven't drawn a bighorn and have max points and can afford it I would put in and stay in. Someone has to draw.
 
I'm still in it, but I look at it like I dont' need 5 mountain goats, so I apply everywhere, after I get one down I will look at it and see if it makes sense to keep applying in the remaining states. Only been in the points game for 8 years or so.
 
Like others mentioned I quit applying a few years ago when they jacked up the cost too much. The odds were already horrible and I couldn't justify spending $80-90 per year to apply for mountain goat with those odds.
 
I too bailed out when they changed the game a few years ago. Just flushed those points away. I did the math and saw it was not worth the gamble. Notice I didn't use the word investment because it likely would have never payed off.
 
Thanks Cabuck- you are the only guy I no who has harvested 2 animals in Montana under the points system, congratulations. I know a lot of hunters are not at max points or even close, don't give up at least you have a chance at drawing with there point system. Someone has to draw you just have to be one of the top six N.R. Picks. My huntinting partner drew the Henry?s N.R. rifle deer tag this year after 25 years of applying, They scouted hard found some great bucks, but after archery season and muzzle loader season the top end bucks were all harvested, he turned his license back in. What I am getting at is it's the journey, wheather you draw a Montana tag this year or 10 years from now it will be the high light of your life when it happens.The only reason I am pulling out is my daughters will both be going to College in the next 4 and 5 years, I want to hunt with them while I can. There?s a lot of pressure out there these days, it seems like a lot of these young fellows just want the fame and glory to be the next poster hunting boy. Applying and drawing tags is a life long journey,scout hard and do your homework on draw statistics and you will be rewarded one day, just don't give up.
 
You are correct! That's why I bailed out in Wyoming this year for moose despite having 16 NR POINTS. I'm considering doing the same in Montana. What is the max point level for SHEEP AND MOOSE? I have 16 sheep and 15 moose points in Montana.

I finally came to my senses this year in Wyoming when they increased the price of the moose tag from around $1450 to $1976 and the preference point fee from $75 - $150. I say came to my senses because from a financial and age standpoint I would have been better off just booking a Shiras moose hunt in southern British Columbia 17 years ago. Time, money, and age are all working against me now in regards to the application shell game!
 
I have drawn two OIL tags - WY NR Area 1 Moose with 0 points and AZ NR Desert Sheep with 13 points (less than half of max).

I have been reading for 20+ years now about the futility of applying
for OIL tags as a NR - the long odds, the high cost, the unfairness of it all, what a ripoff the draws are, blah, blah, blah.

Everybody just has to decide how badly they want to hunt a given animal and tailor their actions accordingly. I don't care what folks do, but I do get a little annoyed sometimes at so many who are willing to call others stupid, foolish, etc. when they don't know them, their motivations, their financial situations - nothing.

Every time I look at my wall it reminds how glad I am I never listen to them.
 
Sure some people get lucky. I was lucky enough to draw MT sheep tag 10 years ago. However, if I had to fork over 75 dollars for a 1% chance of drawing, I would pull the plug. I don't have that kind of money for that slim of a chance. Even though my MT sheep hunt was my favorite dream hunt.

I have a cousin that has max points for sheep and he is really wondering about continuing.
 
I'll continue to play. Montana was good to me when I was a resident. I drew bull moose, mountain goat, and a bighorn ewe on a second choice. My Dad has drawn 2 moose permits and a bighorn ram tag and my Brother has drawn moose and mountain goat as well.

I know the animals and country from living there for 30 years and hunting it my whole life. Makes sense to stay the course. If I draw another moose or goat...I'm out for life. I'll stay in the game for sheep until I'm dead.

I get why people are bailing though, even with points. Just think how daunting it must look for a first time applicant...

I'm probably making a bad decision, but I'm staying the course.
 
Looks like nonresident odds on a 680 or 482 ram tag are a little worse than 1:1000. With the conservation license and other fees, that's pushing $100k per tag issued. It's less revenue than the auction tag brings in:)
 
If MT would set aside a NR quota like everyone else does it would change everything. I can't help but feel this could happen if people keep giving up and they see their revenues drop.

This is part of why I'm still hanging in there this long.














Stay Thirsty My Friends
 
Yep...having an assured quota would make people stick and stay.

These agencies forget that even us "dumb hunters" can do simple math and count odds.
 
I lucked out 10 years ago and drew a sheep tag in a not so popular area. Last time the unit was available to non residents 249 people applied and one non resident drew. Less than 1/2 percent for a least popular unit. Now it cost 100 dollars to try for that very small chance. Makes me even more grateful for the tag, the hunt, and experience. Even if you have max points, i wouldn't plan on drawing as a non res. You could get very lucky however.
 
I think it will be the end of the line for a lot of people, including me. Just getting too old to continue playing the game. If I want to face 1000:1 odds, I'll just buy $10 raffle tickets.
 

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