New Mexico muzzleloader draw odds with new rules

[tnvol]

Hey guys! What’s everyone’s opinion on the new muzzleloader rule changes in NM effecting the draw odds?? Will a 5% draw muzzleloader odds become a 10-20%?? Will a rifle 10% become a 5% draw odd unit?? I’m very curious on how to play my cards with New Mexico Elk application for 2023.
Merry Christmas!

 

[madtinker]

I’ve been wondering the same. The best I could figure was to try to look at other states when they made similar changes, but I haven’t had the time to research it. Anyway, I will probably not be joining the ranks of muzzy hunters this year; I just don’t have time to devote to learning a new weapon, as much as I’d like to. Personally I think the draw odds will be even better than before. Good luck on making your choices.

 

[wayno945]

I see lots of people saying that. Makes me think they might get worse.

 

[tnvol]

I see lots of people saying that. Makes me think they might get worse.

That’s a good point..it might make people jump into the muzzy hunts with anticipation of higher draw odds..

 

[heateater]

I bet you they get worse. Everybody is chasing draw odds.

 

[tnvol]

I wonder if units like 13,15,17 etc that have been muzzleloader only if they’ll add 1 late rifle hunt or move some of the dates for muzzleloader closer to the rut in early October.. seems like archery and open sight only muzzy would allow the population to explode which could be good I guess..

 

[tmbr_hntr]

Simple answer is draw odds never get better. If some guys(I doubt) drop out because they can't use a scope, at least as many will jump in. Agree with some above... might be even more jumping in thinking it will be better only to find out they were worse.

 

[yotebuster17]

They’ll get worse. Mark my words.

 

[Utah400Elk]

I hunted 15 Muzzle 3rd season in 2021. The scopes on Muzzleloader were not the issue. The real issue, I saw, was guys with scoped rifles shooting bulls then using a Hawken type muzzleloader when the walked up to their elk.

I watched at least three groups of people shoot more than 5 shots in less than 20 seconds at more than 700 yards. I guess they could just be way better than me at quick loading?

The muzzleloader scope law will not have the intended affect on these hunts. My guess is first year the odds tank because everybody thinks they have the inside track on 10% plugs draw odds.

15 is an awesome hunt. I will keep putting my son in for the youth hunts but I am switching to archery. These will be very tough hunts for open sights on the late hunt…JMO

 

[wyoflythrower]

I think some resident hunts/seasons will get better but non-resident hunts won’t likely change much IMO.

 

[arwaterfowler]

I think some resident hunts/seasons will get better but non-resident hunts won’t likely change much IMO.

Agreed, maybe a slight uptick in odds at best in 2023. I figure the odds go back to where they were before or worse if the bull quality significantly increases as desired due to lower harvest rates. Especially in popular southern muzzy only units, which will be challenging hunts with open sights.

 

[yotebuster17]

I hunted 15 Muzzle 3rd season in 2021. The scopes on Muzzleloader were not the issue. The real issue, I saw, was guys with scoped rifles shooting bulls then using a Hawken type muzzleloader when the walked up to their elk.

I watched at least three groups of people shoot more than 5 shots in less than 20 seconds at more than 700 yards. I guess they could just be way better than me at quick loading?

The muzzleloader scope law will not have the intended affect on these hunts. My guess is first year the odds tank because everybody thinks they have the inside track on 10% plugs draw odds.

15 is an awesome hunt. I will keep putting my son in for the youth hunts but I am switching to archery. These will be very tough hunts for open sights on the late hunt…JMO

That’s a pretty specific accusation that seems like it woulda been real easy to call in if witnessed.

 

[Utah400Elk]

I tried calling the game warden three times and never got a response. Every time I witnessed the shooting I called. I left messages saying I could take them right to the elk and nobody ever called back. My son and I heard one of the guys who had to put a final shot into a bull actually say “how the hell do I shoot this thing” while looking at his muzzleloader and laughing. We moved on from the area. We also ran into a guide who was using thermal scope to spot elk in the flats and race to them in a Polaris General. All were in the north end by Fox Mountain. It is a very remote unit with one warden. Most of the locals I talked to said it was a real and known problem.

 

[Katoom]

The crazy thing is that people like this may even be on these forums and truly don’t consider themselves poachers. What a crap mindset. If anyone of them or people who have or would do the same is reading this…. You suck.

 

[roadrunner]

Hey guys! What’s everyone’s opinion on the new muzzleloader rule changes in NM effecting the draw odds?? Will a 5% draw muzzleloader odds become a 10-20%?? Will a rifle 10% become a 5% draw odd unit?? I’m very curious on how to play my cards with New Mexico Elk application for 2023.
Merry Christmas!

Which "odd" are you talking about, your 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice?

 

[TLowell02]

...We also ran into a guide who was using thermal scope to spot elk in the flats and race to them in a Polaris General...

Let me guess, A5 guides? I ran into the same tactic on a barbary hunt.

 

[Utah400Elk]

It was an AZ guide.

 

[slicktrick]

I hunted 15 1st season muzzle nr 1 of 12 tags. i never seen so many people with landowner tags running around up and down every freakin road. if nm would lower or cut back some of those tags i think these units could rebound. blaming it on the scoped smoke poles is crazy- wait and see what that does to the herd with all the crappy 200yrd + open sight shots taken. And as far as the poaching going on in NM in unit 15 -man its crazy the crap thats taking place- i watched 1 guy shoot 3 horses ! now granted they have a wild horse problem but dang dont do it while we are elk hunting...

 

[tnvol]

odds for any muzzleloader hunt..for instance a unit 15 1st muzzleloader is 5% draw odds..will that number increase to 10% with the scope rules…?? Or a 20% odds tag..will it become a 30-40% odds hunt? And will rifle hunts decrease in odds from this new rule..??

Which "odd" are you talking about, your 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choic

Which "odd" are you talking about, your 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice?

 

[roadrunner]

odds for any muzzleloader hunt..for instance a unit 15 1st muzzleloader is 5% draw odds..will that number increase to 10% with the scope rules…?? Or a 20% odds tag..will it become a 30-40% odds hunt? And will rifle hunts decrease in odds from this new rule..??

You didn't answer the question...

 

[tnvol]

You didn't answer the question...

I’m a bit confused.. I’m talking about draw odds for 1st 2nd and 3rd choice..

 

[roadrunner]

I’m a bit confused.. I’m talking about draw odds for 1st 2nd and 3rd choice..

The "odds" for 2nd and 3rd choices will likely get worse with people thinking many won't put in because of the change.

That's what I was asking with which choice. You just listed 1st and what it might change by. Maybe I'm confused 😕

 

[Skykarp]

I doubt they change at all. I could easily see them getting worse for that matter with the traditional crowd jumping in.

The same people that built “long range muzzleloaders” will still apply with “long range open sight muzzleloaders.”