Ok, here is a question for the math guru's out there. I am wanting to know what my odds are of drawing at least one tag this year. So, can someone tell me how you calculate the odds of drawing at least one tag when say you apply for 10 different tags with varying odds for each one? This is a statistics problem, but I'm not sure I know how to solve it. For an easy example say I put in for deer, elk, and antelope and each respectively have draw odds of 20% 25% and 30%. What would be the odds of drawing at least one tag? I know it is not as simple as just adding them together (i've tried adding all my percentages together and have them equal greater than 100% and not draw a tag!). Anyways, if anyone can help thanks in advance!
Odds Calculation
- Thread starter Wyo
- Start date
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pinenut
Guest
The odds of you drawing at least one tag in your scenario is 58 out of 100.
First drawing: 20% you get a tag here.
Second drawing: 80% chance you enter this drawing without a tag with a 25% chance of drawing in this draw=20% you get your first tag here.
Third drawing: 60% chance you enter this drawing without a tag with a 30% chance of drawing in this draw=18% you get your first tag here.
Add em up...58% chance you draw at least one tag.
-RPinenut
First drawing: 20% you get a tag here.
Second drawing: 80% chance you enter this drawing without a tag with a 25% chance of drawing in this draw=20% you get your first tag here.
Third drawing: 60% chance you enter this drawing without a tag with a 30% chance of drawing in this draw=18% you get your first tag here.
Add em up...58% chance you draw at least one tag.
-RPinenut
Hey, thanks for the help! I was hoping there would be an easier way to figure it out, could be very tedious when trying to calculate the odds when considering 10 or 15 tags. Plus I wonder how you calculate the odds of drawing multiple tags. Perhaps there is a formula out there.
txhunter58
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 8,564
I know a formula to figured in reverse: What is the probability that you won't draw:
20% = 4/5
25% = 3/4
30% = 7/10
You multiply these three numbers to get the probability that you won't draw:
4/5 X 3/4 X 7/10 = 84/200 = 0.42 = 42 % that you WONT draw
Therefore you have a 58% chance of drawing
Same answer he got, but in reverse.
I am sure there is a formula to do it his way, but it is too late at night for me to remember it.
Either way, when you get up to 10+ drawings, you better have a calculator that has plenty of 0's cause you will be getting some really big numbers.
Just to give an example: 10 drawings each with a 20% chance
each drawing has a 4/5 chance that you won't draw. so the odds you wont draw are 4 to the 10th power over 5 to the 10th power.
that is 1048576 / 9765625 = 0.107 (10.07%) that you won't draw
Basically that means a 90% chance you would draw at least one tag
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
20% = 4/5
25% = 3/4
30% = 7/10
You multiply these three numbers to get the probability that you won't draw:
4/5 X 3/4 X 7/10 = 84/200 = 0.42 = 42 % that you WONT draw
Therefore you have a 58% chance of drawing
Same answer he got, but in reverse.
I am sure there is a formula to do it his way, but it is too late at night for me to remember it.
Either way, when you get up to 10+ drawings, you better have a calculator that has plenty of 0's cause you will be getting some really big numbers.
Just to give an example: 10 drawings each with a 20% chance
each drawing has a 4/5 chance that you won't draw. so the odds you wont draw are 4 to the 10th power over 5 to the 10th power.
that is 1048576 / 9765625 = 0.107 (10.07%) that you won't draw
Basically that means a 90% chance you would draw at least one tag
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
lostinOregon
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,011
I was horrible at math, but I figured there was a way to figure it out. I am going to write this stuff down, good information. It gives me more hope of drawing something someday.
Rich
Rich
B
BreederBuck
Guest
False hope is all it seems to be for me.
It usually looks better on paper than it really is............
It usually looks better on paper than it really is............
K
ktc
Guest
or.....
if you draw 100%.
if you dont 0%.
i say your odds are 50/50.
if you draw 100%.
if you dont 0%.
i say your odds are 50/50.
Good info here guys, I will also make sure I write it down so I will know for future reference.
ktc...I once used that answer on a math test in 7th grade cuz I couldn't remember how to caculate some percentages, the old "either you will or you won't" didn't work. Makes me laugh a little thinking back on it!
ktc...I once used that answer on a math test in 7th grade cuz I couldn't remember how to caculate some percentages, the old "either you will or you won't" didn't work. Makes me laugh a little thinking back on it!
K
ktc
Guest
That was my best answer. I never liked stats much!
