Sheep and Goat 2024 draw statistics / recap are up on CPW website

[Triple7]

Just saw they updated. A lot of low weighted point holders drew out

 

[COPLAINSHNTR]

It is really annoying, this system needs to change. I don't have the solution but when year after year is the same, I'd say the system is broken.

 

[RRCowboyStar]

Wish they would post the Moose Statistics, so I can see that I didn't get that one either! No point in waiting for the draw.

 

[Twoshooter]

Looks like 41080 sheep apps for 336 tags, 31677 goat apps for 244 tags, and 5895 desert apps for 15 tags. Thats 78652 apps for 595 tags. Its a lottery folks. Slightly better odds if you have a few points and are a resident. Never going to get easier. Demand has outpaced supply as long as I have been alive.

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

Just saw they updated. A lot of low weighted point holders drew out

It's been that way since CPW opened the floodgates with the no up front fee. It's only going to get worse as more and more of them flood the draw. Statistically they have the best odds at tags just by their sheer numbers they have the highest probability of pulling the lowest random number

 

[Bluehair]

Looks like 41080 sheep apps for 336 tags, 31677 goat apps for 244 tags, and 5895 desert apps for 15 tags. Thats 78652 apps for 595 tags. Its a lottery folks. Slightly better odds if you have a few points and are a resident. Never going to get easier. Demand has outpaced supply as long as I have been alive.

It’s a true lottery for the deserts. The others go thru central processing. Supposedly.

 

[Horniac]

It's been that way since CPW opened the floodgates with the no up front fee. It's only going to get worse as more and more of them flood the draw. Statistically they have the best odds at tags just by their sheer numbers they have the highest probability of pulling the lowest random number

The same thing will happen in WY if they switch to bonus points for moose and sheep.

Yes, you have better draw odds than a single applicant with lower points than you, but due to the sheer number of the lower point holders below you they will draw the majority of the tags…

Horniac

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

Exactly but guys still can't seem to comprehend this

 

[ElmerFudd]

I'm not sure if it is worth spending $100 on a nonresident point when they just divide the random number by (points + 1). Value added per point goes down the higher you go. Drawing a lucky low number is more important than dividing it by a slightly larger number. Dividing by 25 vs 24? Almost meaningless.

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

Bingo

 

[ElmerFudd]

I think I would rather have more chances for my points than just dividing one number by a slightly higher number.

 

[LIK2HNT]

Square or cube your points and use that number to divide your inverted & converted application number by.

 

[yotebuster17]

Square or cube your points and use that number to divide your inverted & converted application number by.

That still doesn’t help if I pull a number with 3+1 that ends in two zeros and you draw a number ending in any whole number other then zero. You can cut it in pieces all you want and that doesn’t get a tag. The fact that the entire process involves one number for each hunter is the problem. Just give the guy with 25 points 25 numbers. It’s fairly simple.

 

[LivingTheDream]

Colorado just needs to charge up front fees again.

I wish all states were like Idaho where you have to pick 1 to put in for. For states with preference and bonus points, allow non residents to buy points every year to keep their revenue up but only allow them to put in for 1 OIL tag per year.

 

[RRCowboyStar]

That still doesn’t help if I pull a number with 3+1 that ends in two zeros and you draw a number ending in any whole number other then zero. You can cut it in pieces all you want and that doesn’t get a tag. The fact that the entire process involves one number for each hunter is the problem. Just give the guy with 25 points 25 numbers. It’s fairly simple.

That just makes way to much sense! No government agency will go for that!

 

[Gadjet]

That still doesn’t help if I pull a number with 3+1 that ends in two zeros and you draw a number ending in any whole number other then zero. You can cut it in pieces all you want and that doesn’t get a tag. The fact that the entire process involves one number for each hunter is the problem. Just give the guy with 25 points 25 numbers. It’s fairly simple.

They've taken something that should be very simple and managed to overcomplicate it. Makes no sense.

 

[nripepi]

That still doesn’t help if I pull a number with 3+1 that ends in two zeros and you draw a number ending in any whole number other then zero. You can cut it in pieces all you want and that doesn’t get a tag. The fact that the entire process involves one number for each hunter is the problem. Just give the guy with 25 points 25 numbers. It’s fairly simple.

You can do that math, I don't think it is going to help a ton based on the current distribution of who drew tags and how many people are applying with few points. I agree it would be simpler and more fair but it is probably not going to help much for those sitting on loads of points. I think GoHunt or Epic did this analysis recently.

It looks like residents with 19-23 points were drawing at about a 5% clip which is decent considering it is a bonus point system It is not even worth looking at the non-resident side because of less tags to see if the system is working or not but with more tags on the resident side the stats are worth something I'd say.

I do agree their system is pretty strange.
https://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/H...MountainBighornSheep/2024RMSheepDrawRecap.pdf

 

[BradA]

How did a nr draw at 1-0 and 2-0 ? They aren’t into the draw until they have 3 pp

 

[LIK2HNT]

How did a nr draw at 1-0 and 2-0 ? They aren’t into the draw until they have 3 pp

Definitely something wrong there. Those 3 tags should have gone to applicants with 3 plus points. Unless maybe they were ewe tags.

 

[nripepi]

How did a nr draw at 1-0 and 2-0 ? They aren’t into the draw until they have 3 pp

Female tags. Big money for a ewe.

 

[BradA]

Female tags. Big money for a ewe.

That’s what I expected but wasnt aware that you could draw a ewe tag without having to have the 3 pp at least

 

[nripepi]

That’s what I expected but wasnt aware that you could draw a ewe tag without having to have the 3 pp at least

When no one has the 3 PP they go to the next in line.

 

[Crampy]

That still doesn’t help if I pull a number with 3+1 that ends in two zeros and you draw a number ending in any whole number other then zero. You can cut it in pieces all you want and that doesn’t get a tag. The fact that the entire process involves one number for each hunter is the problem. Just give the guy with 25 points 25 numbers. It’s fairly simple.

One number divided by 25; or 25 numbers. Doesn't matter...

CO's silly weighted BP equation produces the same results as a simple BP system. Just uses a convoluted method to get there. The TOPRUT article on this produced some good data to prove and visualize it.

But it sounds like CPW might be doing exactly what you are requesting. Trashing this silly division exercise and converting MSG to simple BP system with a 3 point floor. For consumer comprehension, this will be a good change.

 

[Deercy]

It's been that way since CPW opened the floodgates with the no up front fee. It's only going to get worse as more and more of them flood the draw. Statistically they have the best odds at tags just by their sheer numbers they have the highest probability of pulling the lowest random number

But individually, high point holders have the advantage...

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

But individually, high point holders have the advantage...

Not really go unit by unit on the draw stats for rams. Many high to max point holders are getting out drawn by low point holders. Last time I ran it mid to low point holders were drawing over 80% of the ram tags.

 

[LIK2HNT]

One number divided by 25; or 25 numbers. Doesn't matter...

CO's silly weighted BP equation produces the same results as a simple BP system. Just uses a convoluted method to get there. The TOPRUT article on this produced some good data to prove and visualize it.

But it sounds like CPW might be doing exactly what you are requesting. Trashing this silly division exercise and converting MSG to simple BP system with a 3 point floor. For consumer comprehension, this will be a good change.

Would rather have 25 random then one number decided by 25

 

[RRCowboyStar]

Not really go unit by unit on the draw stats for rams. Many high to max point holders are getting out drawn by low point holders. Last time I ran it mid to low point holders were drawing over 80% of the ram tags.

That's because of the high number of low point holders. It started going down hill when they stopped collecting the full tag fee up front.

 

[Crampy]

Statistically they have the best odds at tags just by their sheer numbers they have the highest probability of pulling the lowest random number

This is misleading.

Sure, in the aggregate, the huge numbers of low point holders do end up with alot of tags. Especially since the flood of applicants after not requiring up-front tag fees.

But you have to compare individuals 1:1. And the high point holders in MSG most definitely have a better chance of drawing than any single 3+0 applicant.

Your analysis would be the same as playing a basketball game with 1 person on Team A. And 5 people on Team B.

 

[Crampy]

Would rather have 25 random then one number decided by 25

And many people feel the same way. It is a common misperception about the CO MSG weighted system.

Read the analysis here as to why the result is the same:

Toprut - Western Big Game Hunting Reference

Draw odds, harvest data, interactive maps and more - Toprut is the most open and accessible western big game hunting research site ever created.

www.toprut.com

Regardless, it sounds like CPW is fed up with their own silly weight MSG system and is going to scrap it and just do simple BP.

 

[LIK2HNT]

Bet if you generated 1000 random numbers, now invert them and do a number replacement like CPW does. Look at that data. Now would you want one random number from that list and get to divide it by 25, or 25 random numbers?
I would take the 25 numbers !!!

 

[Danny_Ocean]

The system isn’t broke, the flood gates that opened is what broke it. The CO draw for MSG is about as good as it gets. No fixing it now unless they went full price up front and even that for residents won’t do much.

The worst system there is in my opinion is a system that only rewards top holders .

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

That's because of the high number of low point holders. It started going down hill when they stopped collecting the full tag fee up front.

I know that I've already stated that numerous times

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

This is misleading.

Sure, in the aggregate, the huge numbers of low point holders do end up with alot of tags. Especially since the flood of applicants after not requiring up-front tag fees.

But you have to compare individuals 1:1. And the high point holders in MSG most definitely have a better chance of drawing than any single 3+0 applicant.

Your analysis would be the same as playing a basketball game with 1 person on Team A. And 5 people on Team B.

No it's not misleading just look at the draw stats unit by unit and you will see what I'm talking about

 

[Danny_Ocean]

It is what it is at this point. Put in, hope, you draw you draw, you don’t, well, there is next year.

 

[Deercy]

Not really go unit by unit on the draw stats for rams. Many high to max point holders are getting out drawn by low point holders. Last time I ran it mid to low point holders were drawing over 80% of the ram tags.

Statistically high point holders have a better chance of drawing. Fact.

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

Not really look how many max point holders are losing tags to lower point holders. There isn't a significant statistical advantage to having a ton of weighted points. Fact

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

Deercy here's some number from this years stats. The max guys at 3+23 had 4 out of 92 applicants draw so a 4.3% draw rate. The 3+13 group had 15 out of 360 applicants draw so a 4.2% draw rate. So real no advantage statistically speaking for ten more years of weighted points. The 3+3 group drew the most tags at 24 the 3+2 group was next at 20. So out of 223 ram tags those two low point groups drew 44 of them or roughly 18%.

 

[jims]

According to Buzz on the Wyo post, he's drawn more great tags in a random draw and believes Wyo sheep and moose should go to a total random draw. I think the only person he has convinced is himself!

 

[Crampy]

Deercy here's some number from this years stats. The max guys at 3+23 had 4 out of 92 applicants draw so a 4.3% draw rate. The 3+13 group had 15 out of 360 applicants draw so a 4.2% draw rate. So real no advantage statistically speaking for ten more years of weighted points. The 3+3 group drew the most tags at 24 the 3+2 group was next at 20. So out of 223 ram tags those two low point groups drew 44 of them or roughly 18%.

3+23, 4 of 92 res drew for 4.3% draw rate.
3+3, 24 of 2220 res drew for 1.08% draw rate (you left this out of your data of course)

4 is a bigger number than 1.

Looks like you made Deercry's point for him. Even with that odd anomaly in the 3+3 group, the max point holders still had a greater chance to draw. As individuals.

Everyone understands your valid point about the flood of low point applicants. But we still have to remain honest with the numbers.

 

[nmbighorn]

Only changes that should happen is Colorado needs to allow NR to apply for the best units, and do a bonus preference draw...

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

3+23, 4 of 92 res drew for 4.3% draw rate.
3+3, 24 of 2220 res drew for 1.08% draw rate (you left this out of your data of course)

4 is a bigger number than 1.

Looks like you made Deercry's point for him. Even with that odd anomaly in the 3+3 group, the max point holders still had a greater chance to draw. As individuals.

Everyone understands your valid point about the flood of low point applicants. But we still have to remain honest with the numbers.

4 out of 92 isn't a great statistical advantage like some claim. The honest numbers show that close to 20% of the ram tags go to low point holders and that will only increase as time goes on. If you go unit by unit in the draw stats the max point guys do not individually have a huge statistical advantage to all the applicants. The 3+3 group is not an anomaly you go can go back the previous years since the flood gates were open and see that the lower point groups are drawing a majority of the tags.

 

[Bluehair]

I think if you haven’t drawn by 3+3, you should quit trying.

 

[Danny_Ocean]

Some of you guys would complain as soon as you rolled off of a supermodel as it took too long to get her, and didn’t last long enough.

 

[Crampy]

On one side, Orion with a keyboard and a conspiracy theory.

On the other side, Gohunt, Toprunt and CPW stats guys who all agree that CPW weighted MSG produces the exact same linear increase in draw odds as a simple BP design.

Here @ 1:23

Toprut - Western Big Game Hunting Reference

Draw odds, harvest data, interactive maps and more - Toprut is the most open and accessible western big game hunting research site ever created.

www.toprut.com

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

Haha yep now the draw stats are a conspiracy theory

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

https://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Hunting/BigGame/Weighted-Preference-Points.pdf#search=weighted%20points

Looks like CPW talking out both sides of their mouth. Here they explain why all the low point holders are getting tags

 

[MrDoe]

Deercy here's some number from this years stats. The max guys at 3+23 had 4 out of 92 applicants draw so a 4.3% draw rate. The 3+13 group had 15 out of 360 applicants draw so a 4.2% draw rate. So real no advantage statistically speaking for ten more years of weighted points. The 3+3 group drew the most tags at 24 the 3+2 group was next at 20. So out of 223 ram tags those two low point groups drew 44 of them or roughly 18%.

What was the draw rate for the 3+3 guys?

 

[MrDoe]

Definitely something wrong there. Those 3 tags should have gone to applicants with 3 plus points. Unless maybe they were ewe tags.

My son drew a nanny tag with 0/0 when he was 12

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

What was the draw rate for the 3+3 guys?

The draw rate as individuals isn't good but those groups have so many applicants they have the best "odds" for the tags. That's why those groups have been drawing a majority of the overall tags the last few years

 

[Deercy]

The draw rate as individuals isn't good but those groups have so many applicants they have the best "odds" for the tags. That's why those groups have been drawing a majority of the overall tags the last few years

That's kinda exactly what I was saying....

 

[MrDoe]

The draw rate as individuals isn't good but those groups have so many applicants they have the best "odds" for the tags. That's why those groups have been drawing a majority of the overall tags the last few years

Weird, so it was less than the guys with weighted points?

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

By some but I still wouldn't consider having max weighted points a huge advantage. The 3+11 to 3+0 group drew over 80% of the ram tags. Which is the mid level down. Shouldn't that be the other way if those weighted points were really working how they are supposed to? I also wouldn't consider 4 max weighted points holders drawing a huge success. My dad's drawn two rocky tags one at 3+3 and one at 3+2 he also drew goat at 3+2. I drew goat at 3+3 and rocky at 3+1. Just trying to get my kids tags now. I still don't see the advantage of all the weighted points especially at 50 a pop for residents and 100 for nonresidents.

 

[Danny_Ocean]

^^^^ That's your opinion, but on paper, If I see a unit where there are say 25 guys putting in, and historically those guys are all say 3+8-9 and down, and you apply with 3+18, I feel I do have a better chance, and I do. Huge difference? No, but I do have a slight edge, and drawing tags is all about "edges"

 

[MrDoe]

^^^^ That's your opinion, but on paper, If I see a unit where there are say 25 guys putting in, and historically those guys are all say 3+8-9 and down, and you apply with 3+18, I feel I do have a better chance, and I do. Huge difference? No, but I do have a slight edge, and drawing tags is all about "edges"

Agree. And he has changed his tune from “weighted points don’t help” to “weighted points aren’t worth the cost” can’t make broad statements as everyone is in a different situation. Heck I’m really glad that when I had to move away for 5 years I was writing the big check for goat, sheep, and moose every year. And $50 is what some people spend at Starbucks in a week.

 

[Deercy]

By some but I still wouldn't consider having max weighted points a huge advantage. The 3+11 to 3+0 group drew over 80% of the ram tags. Which is the mid level down. Shouldn't that be the other way if those weighted points were really working how they are supposed to? I also wouldn't consider 4 max weighted points holders drawing a huge success. My dad's drawn two rocky tags one at 3+3 and one at 3+2 he also drew goat at 3+2. I drew goat at 3+3 and rocky at 3+1. Just trying to get my kids tags now. I still don't see the advantage of all the weighted points especially at 50 a pop for residents and 100 for nonresidents.

But earlier you said...

 

[Deercy]

3 times the odds is huge.

 

[MrDoe]

3 times the odds is huge.

That's just the simple odds too. If you looked at just ram tags I'd bet the odds favor high point holders more. The low point holders put in disproportionately for ewe and easier draw ram tags.

 

[Crampy]

Orion altering the truth with a Red Sharpie.

Yes, the 2018 change to not require up front tag cost will flatten out the line a bit. But it's still a line with a positive slope.

Toprut - Western Big Game Hunting Reference

Draw odds, harvest data, interactive maps and more - Toprut is the most open and accessible western big game hunting research site ever created.

www.toprut.com

 

[Danny_Ocean]

Looks like higher points did ok in S9 this year. This was exactly the strategy I went by. S9 is a bi11tch of a unit, and you won't see a ton of high point holders putting in. But..........you can see the guys who noted that, drew!

 

[MrDoe]

Here's the breakdown for ram tags from this year. Sure looks like WP give an advantage to my simple brain.

Points	tags	apps	odds
0​	6​	717​	0.837%​
1​	7​	731​	0.958%​
2​	14​	802​	1.746%​
3​	18​	1130​	1.593%​
4​	15​	583​	2.573%​
5​	8​	453​	1.766%​
6​	10​	481​	2.079%​
7​	3​	357​	0.840%​
8​	13​	418​	3.110%​
9​	7​	369​	1.897%​
10​	8​	303​	2.640%​
11​	16​	272​	5.882%​
12​	13​	271​	4.797%​
13​	15​	256​	5.859%​
14​	14​	214​	6.542%​
15​	8​	184​	4.348%​
16​	11​	193​	5.699%​
17​	6​	161​	3.727%​
18​	3​	118​	2.542%​
19​	7​	97​	7.216%​
20​	3​	87​	3.448%​
21​	2​	70​	2.857%​
22​	4​	68​	5.882%​
23​	4​	79​	5.063%​

 

[nripepi]

Here's the breakdown for ram tags from this year. Sure looks like WP give an advantage to my simple brain.

Points	tags	apps	odds
0​	6​	717​	0.837%​
1​	7​	731​	0.958%​
2​	14​	802​	1.746%​
3​	18​	1130​	1.593%​
4​	15​	583​	2.573%​
5​	8​	453​	1.766%​
6​	10​	481​	2.079%​
7​	3​	357​	0.840%​
8​	13​	418​	3.110%​
9​	7​	369​	1.897%​
10​	8​	303​	2.640%​
11​	16​	272​	5.882%​
12​	13​	271​	4.797%​
13​	15​	256​	5.859%​
14​	14​	214​	6.542%​
15​	8​	184​	4.348%​
16​	11​	193​	5.699%​
17​	6​	161​	3.727%​
18​	3​	118​	2.542%​
19​	7​	97​	7.216%​
20​	3​	87​	3.448%​
21​	2​	70​	2.857%​
22​	4​	68​	5.882%​
23​	4​	79​	5.063%​

View attachment 144489

That is awesome and definitely shows higher odds for more points! This is showing about a 5 to 1 odds ratio from 20 points to 1 point. In a true bonus point system, wouldn't you expect for the line to be steeper, closer to 20 to 1 on a ratio (like 10% for 20 points and 0.5% for 1 point)? Maybe it would be most years, just not the year in question because of how the lottery fell or maybe the crazy Colorado system is not doing exactly what statisticians thinks it is doing and bonus point is more favorable for those with more points or those with more points are applying for the harder to draw tags I guess.

 

[SanJuan]

Here's the breakdown for ram tags from this year. Sure looks like WP give an advantage to my simple brain.

Points	tags	apps	odds
0​	6​	717​	0.837%​
1​	7​	731​	0.958%​
2​	14​	802​	1.746%​
3​	18​	1130​	1.593%​
4​	15​	583​	2.573%​
5​	8​	453​	1.766%​
6​	10​	481​	2.079%​
7​	3​	357​	0.840%​
8​	13​	418​	3.110%​
9​	7​	369​	1.897%​
10​	8​	303​	2.640%​
11​	16​	272​	5.882%​
12​	13​	271​	4.797%​
13​	15​	256​	5.859%​
14​	14​	214​	6.542%​
15​	8​	184​	4.348%​
16​	11​	193​	5.699%​
17​	6​	161​	3.727%​
18​	3​	118​	2.542%​
19​	7​	97​	7.216%​
20​	3​	87​	3.448%​
21​	2​	70​	2.857%​
22​	4​	68​	5.882%​
23​	4​	79​	5.063%​

That is awesome and definitely shows higher odds for more points! This is showing about a 5 to 1 odds ratio from 20 points to 1 point. In a true bonus point system, wouldn't you expect for the line to be steeper, closer to 20 to 1 on a ratio (like 10% for 20 points and 0.5% for 1 point)? Maybe it would be most years, just not the year in question because of how the lottery fell or maybe the crazy Colorado system is not doing exactly what statisticians thinks it is doing and bonus point is more favorable for those with more points or those with more points are applying for the harder to draw tags I guess.

My guess is that the line isn't steeper because high point holders tend to apply for the better tags that have worse draw odds.

 

[ORIONTHEHUNTER]

Here's the breakdown for ram tags from this year. Sure looks like WP give an advantage to my simple brain.

Points	tags	apps	odds
0​	6​	717​	0.837%​
1​	7​	731​	0.958%​
2​	14​	802​	1.746%​
3​	18​	1130​	1.593%​
4​	15​	583​	2.573%​
5​	8​	453​	1.766%​
6​	10​	481​	2.079%​
7​	3​	357​	0.840%​
8​	13​	418​	3.110%​
9​	7​	369​	1.897%​
10​	8​	303​	2.640%​
11​	16​	272​	5.882%​
12​	13​	271​	4.797%​
13​	15​	256​	5.859%​
14​	14​	214​	6.542%​
15​	8​	184​	4.348%​
16​	11​	193​	5.699%​
17​	6​	161​	3.727%​
18​	3​	118​	2.542%​
19​	7​	97​	7.216%​
20​	3​	87​	3.448%​
21​	2​	70​	2.857%​
22​	4​	68​	5.882%​
23​	4​	79​	5.063%​

View attachment 144489

So the 3+0 group drew just as many ram tags as the 3+17 group. Like I said a majority of the ram tags go to the 3+0 to 3+11 group

 

[MrDoe]

Yes, the 717 people with zero drew the same # (6) tags that the 161 people with 17 points drew.

These aren't preference points. It obviously gives advantage to those with more points, but doesn't guarantee which I think is good.

You can't even keep straight what you've said on these forums.

 

[Deercy]

So the 3+0 group drew just as many ram tags as the 3+17 group. Like I said a majority of the ram tags go to the 3+0 to 3+11 group

No you didn't.

 

[SanJuan]

So the 3+0 group drew just as many ram tags as the 3+17 group. Like I said a majority of the ram tags go to the 3+0 to 3+11 group

Math isn't your thing, and that's okay. Just stop trying to convince the world that you are some sort of statistician when you can't even do grade school-level division.