In the 2014 drawing for Bighorn Sheep the NM Department of Game and Fish decided to set aside 1 ram rocky sheep permit for an outfitted applicant in each of the two hunt codes that had 4 such permits. This was improper in my opinion, but they did it and its reasonable that nonresidents drew 16.66% of all the Rocky Ram Permits this year.
But the unguided residents were not treated fairly compared to the outfitted nonresidents. My understanding of the draw algorithm that was used is that at 4 permits the Department set a strict quota of 3 unguided resident permits and 1 outfitted permit. The draw was run until exactly 3 unguided resident and 1 outfitted applicant drew. There was no other possible outcome and that is in fact what happened. That's right. Unguided nonresidents had no chance of drawing a permit. The reason an unguided nonresident had no chance is because the Department invented a draw algorithm that guaranteed the 1 permit in each of the Latir Ram and Wheeler ram hunt codes to only a outfitted applicant. There was a minuscule chance that an outfitted resident applicant could have drawn the one tag in the Latir hunt as there where actually two residents that applied in the outfitted pool for the Latir hunt.
I was curious to know what the breakdown was between unguided nonresident and outfitted applicants for the two hunt codes. It so happens that if they would have run the drawing for these two permits between unguided nonresident and outfitted applicants, there is a strong probability that an unguided nonresident would have drawn both permits.
I got a hold of the the draw data for all applicants and this is what the data shows.
For the Wheeler hunt there were 1007 unguided nonresident and 197 outfitted applicants (all nonresidents). Unguided nonresidents were 83.6% of the applicants and Outfitted applicants were 16.4% of the applicants in the unguided nonresident plus outfitted pools. There were 5 times as many unguided nonresidents that applied than outfitted applicants but only the outfitted applicants had any chance of drawing. There were 1143 unguided resident applicants but they were only competing with each other for the "other" 3 permits. It is interesting to note that unguided residents had worse odds than outfitted applicants, 1:381 vs 1:197. (Only in NM...)
For the Latir hunt the data is similar as far as percentages go. There were 679 unguided nonresident and 141 outfitted applicants (two residents). Unguided nonresidents were 82.8% of the applicants and Outfitted applicants were 17.2% of the applicants. Again, there were 5 times as many unguided nonresidents that applied than outfitted applicants but only the outfitted applicants had any chance of drawing. Unguided residents had worse odds than outfitted applicants, 1:302 vs 1:141.
If I was an unguided nonresident applicant, I'd be pretty ticked off about how they ran the drawing. But if I was a nonresident I would have signed up with an outfitter if I had selected either the Wheeler or Latir hunt.
Depending on changes that they make for next year, it might make a huge difference in your draw odds if you are a nonresident if you apply unguided or with an outfitter.
One of the proposals the Department presented at the Game Commission meeting is to have only 3 hunt codes for sheep, one each for Rocky Ram, Desert Ram, and Rocky Ewe. Applicants will be able to select only one hunt code and make 3 "hunt selections" within the hunt code. You won't be able to mix your choices between rocky/desert/ewe. If they do this and the same draw algorithm is used and the same number of sheep permits are available as this year, the draw should be as follows:
Rocky Ram. 12 Permits, 10/1/1 unguided resident/unguided nonresident/outfitted
Desert Ram. 16 permits, 13/1/2
Rocky Ewe: 12 permits, 10/1/1
Unguided residents will be the only applicant class that will receive less than its quota percentage (84%) for all three hunt codes. Unguided nonresidents will be the only group that will be over its quota (6%) for all three hunt codes. Outfitted will be over for Desert and under for Rocky and Ewe. Compared to this year, unguided residents will lose 3 Desert permits, unguided nonresidents will gain one rocky ram and one desert ram and outfitted will lose one rocky ram and gain two desert ram permits. Everyone will stay the same for ewe. Unguided nonresident youth and outfitted youth will be eligible to select and draw youth permits.
But the unguided residents were not treated fairly compared to the outfitted nonresidents. My understanding of the draw algorithm that was used is that at 4 permits the Department set a strict quota of 3 unguided resident permits and 1 outfitted permit. The draw was run until exactly 3 unguided resident and 1 outfitted applicant drew. There was no other possible outcome and that is in fact what happened. That's right. Unguided nonresidents had no chance of drawing a permit. The reason an unguided nonresident had no chance is because the Department invented a draw algorithm that guaranteed the 1 permit in each of the Latir Ram and Wheeler ram hunt codes to only a outfitted applicant. There was a minuscule chance that an outfitted resident applicant could have drawn the one tag in the Latir hunt as there where actually two residents that applied in the outfitted pool for the Latir hunt.
I was curious to know what the breakdown was between unguided nonresident and outfitted applicants for the two hunt codes. It so happens that if they would have run the drawing for these two permits between unguided nonresident and outfitted applicants, there is a strong probability that an unguided nonresident would have drawn both permits.
I got a hold of the the draw data for all applicants and this is what the data shows.
For the Wheeler hunt there were 1007 unguided nonresident and 197 outfitted applicants (all nonresidents). Unguided nonresidents were 83.6% of the applicants and Outfitted applicants were 16.4% of the applicants in the unguided nonresident plus outfitted pools. There were 5 times as many unguided nonresidents that applied than outfitted applicants but only the outfitted applicants had any chance of drawing. There were 1143 unguided resident applicants but they were only competing with each other for the "other" 3 permits. It is interesting to note that unguided residents had worse odds than outfitted applicants, 1:381 vs 1:197. (Only in NM...)
For the Latir hunt the data is similar as far as percentages go. There were 679 unguided nonresident and 141 outfitted applicants (two residents). Unguided nonresidents were 82.8% of the applicants and Outfitted applicants were 17.2% of the applicants. Again, there were 5 times as many unguided nonresidents that applied than outfitted applicants but only the outfitted applicants had any chance of drawing. Unguided residents had worse odds than outfitted applicants, 1:302 vs 1:141.
If I was an unguided nonresident applicant, I'd be pretty ticked off about how they ran the drawing. But if I was a nonresident I would have signed up with an outfitter if I had selected either the Wheeler or Latir hunt.
Depending on changes that they make for next year, it might make a huge difference in your draw odds if you are a nonresident if you apply unguided or with an outfitter.
One of the proposals the Department presented at the Game Commission meeting is to have only 3 hunt codes for sheep, one each for Rocky Ram, Desert Ram, and Rocky Ewe. Applicants will be able to select only one hunt code and make 3 "hunt selections" within the hunt code. You won't be able to mix your choices between rocky/desert/ewe. If they do this and the same draw algorithm is used and the same number of sheep permits are available as this year, the draw should be as follows:
Rocky Ram. 12 Permits, 10/1/1 unguided resident/unguided nonresident/outfitted
Desert Ram. 16 permits, 13/1/2
Rocky Ewe: 12 permits, 10/1/1
Unguided residents will be the only applicant class that will receive less than its quota percentage (84%) for all three hunt codes. Unguided nonresidents will be the only group that will be over its quota (6%) for all three hunt codes. Outfitted will be over for Desert and under for Rocky and Ewe. Compared to this year, unguided residents will lose 3 Desert permits, unguided nonresidents will gain one rocky ram and one desert ram and outfitted will lose one rocky ram and gain two desert ram permits. Everyone will stay the same for ewe. Unguided nonresident youth and outfitted youth will be eligible to select and draw youth permits.
