Utahs Moron Math

Trammer · Dec 16, 2015

The dictionary defines odds as The Probability That Something Will Occur. So, when we look up our draw odds for hunts in Utah we expect to learn what our chances of drawing a particular permit are. But what we find is nonsense.

For example; Chubs chances of drawing the lone Lockhart Basin Desert Bighorn Sheep Permit is listed as 1 in 6 in a column titled "success ratio" and success ratio, as it is listed, relates only to applicants with the same number of bonus points as Chubs. A meaningless number to be sure because, Chubs is not in the drawing only with people who have the same number of bonus points as him. Chubs is in the drawing with 96 other people.

So more accurately Chubs odds are 1 in 97 not 1 in 6 as listed. Now, because 1st time applicants with 0 bonus points are still in the draw 1 time and everyone else is in the draw 1 time plus however many bonus point they have; this exact hunt has 752 names in the hat. Because Chubs had 12 bonus points his name was 13 times in the hat. His exact odds were 1 in 58.

It would be nice to get real draw odds for Utah.

TOPGUN · Dec 16, 2015

If the numbers you posted are accurate, that's about as screwed up as most everything else in Utah appears to be at the present time.

NVBighorn · Dec 16, 2015

LAST EDITED ON Dec-16-15 AT 11:04PM (MST)[p].

elkfromabove · Dec 16, 2015

>The dictionary defines odds as The
>Probability That Something Will Occur.
>So, when we look up
>our draw odds for hunts
>in Utah we expect to
>learn what our chances of
>drawing a particular permit are.
>But what we find is
>nonsense.
>
> For example; Chubs chances
>of drawing the lone Lockhart
>Basin Desert Bighorn Sheep Permit
>is listed as 1 in
>6 in a column titled
>"success ratio" and success ratio,
>as it is listed, relates
>only to applicants with the
>same number of bonus points
>as Chubs. A meaningless number
>to be sure because, Chubs
>is not in the drawing
>only with people who have
>the same number of bonus
>points as him. Chubs is
>in the drawing with 96
>other people.
>
> So more accurately Chubs
>odds are 1 in 97
>not 1 in 6 as
>listed. Now, because 1st time
>applicants with 0 bonus points
>are still in the draw
>1 time and everyone else
>is in the draw 1
>time plus however many bonus
>point they have; this exact
>hunt has 752 names in
>the hat. Because Chubs had
>12 bonus points his name
>was 13 times in the
>hat. His exact odds were
>1 in 58.
>
> It would be nice
>to get real draw odds
>for Utah.

Yes, it would be nice, but of course, those odds only tell us what has already happened and aren't a guarantee of the future odds because we don't know how many more hunters with how many points (including those that are just buying points) are going to apply next time nor do we even know, when we apply, how many permits are going to be issued for that hunt. It's a narrowed-down guess perhaps, but still a long-shot guess.

nebo12000 · Dec 17, 2015

So, Topgun, how would you change how it is done so it is "fair" to everyone?

sticksender · Dec 17, 2015

Agree with you Trammer. It should be fairly simple for one of their coding techs to touch up those reports to display actual odds for that year's draw. But if the odds look poor they might feel it'd discourage people from purchasing applications?

Zeke · Dec 17, 2015

What Trammer speaks is the truth but in reality, what difference does it make? ...and why would guys who don't apply in Utah even worry about it anyway? Some guys just like to BIOTCH about Utah! I guess that's part of freedom of speech.

Those of us who follow the odds closely already know that with a little quick math we can see what OUR odds WHERE but it's only a prediction, of sorts, of what's to come.

There's a much larger (real) problem on the horizon with regard to OIL points which Trammer discussed with me a couple nights ago. I'm sure you'll he hearing about that from him.

We don't always agree but I always love to run into Trammer and respect his knowledge, wisdom and opinions.

Zeke

ELKOHOLIC · Dec 17, 2015

Spill the beans zeek. Let's here it.

Zeke · Dec 17, 2015

Nah, It's his critical thinking which exposed this to me... of which I totally agree. There is about to be a real problem for resident hunters and the F&G was short-sighted, at best, and down right devious, at worst.
I like points and have been a beneficiary many times over but I'd have set it up differently had I held the reigns.
Zeke

NVBighorn · Dec 17, 2015

Calculating true odds, even in retrospect, is difficult. I'm no statistician but I watch odds a lot in Nevada. One thing I see is that there must be a lot of folks doing the same because the numbers shift around year to year. Its probably a combination of previous years odds and previous years success. I am convinced there are a bunch of what I call "odds chasers" who are trying to draw a tag and are willing to change the units they apply for in the hopes of beating the odds. I've done it myself. And then there are times like this last year where I said heck with odds I'm applying for the units I want. Most were very difficult draws and dang if I didn't draw a sheep tag for my second placed choice. I think more than anything, at least in Nevada, when it's your day its your day. And if it's not your day... well, thanks for playing.

[font color="blue"]I don't make the soup,I just stir it.[/font]

c3 · Dec 17, 2015

Trammer, your calculations are exactly correct.

I have always thought that was a dumb way to post a number that has nothing to do with the actual odds of that years draw.

It's pretty simple math and would be pretty easy to post correctly. Take out numbers drawn in the bonus side then give the odds it was for the actual numbers remaining in the random draw.

Maybe someday

Cheers,
Pete

Trammer · Dec 17, 2015

Zeke, I am pretty disappointed. I thought we agreed on everything. Please point something out that we dont agree on because I am curious now.

What Zeke is talking about is How Nonresidents can apply in Utah for all OIL species and collect bonus points for all. Now we are down a tier or 2 on sheep permits for residents, in fact on all species but Buffalo.Because of this Nonresidents are now choosing to retire in Utah.

As I understand the average net worth of retiree in the USA is about $500,000. Now sportsmen from around the country and even around the world are choosing to retire to Utah...because they can double their net worth in OIL permits when they do.When they become residents their Nonresident bonus points become resident bonus points. So retirees are now buying condos in places like St George living in them for 6 months of the year. Then drawing a Desert Bighorn the first year of retirement, a Rocky the second a goat or buff the third. The Math now says they will likey draw all 5 OIL permits in the first 5 years of residency. Effectively jumping ahead of ALL residents who are limited by the Buffoons to 1 OIL Bonus point per year.

I have been wondering for years why the Max Bonus points pool does not seem to shrink, then figured it out.

ELKOHOLIC · Dec 18, 2015

They might do that to draw one 1 tag, but more than likely that's all they would get. Putting in for all tags has only been in effect for a few years right? They will never catch up in there lifetime. It could be an issue down the road, but you will never see it. I find it hard to believe that all these people will swarm to utah to do this.

TOPGUN · Dec 18, 2015

>
>So, Topgun, how would you change
>how it is done so
>it is "fair" to everyone?
>

I wouldn't change a thing since I'm one of those NRs Zeke speaks of that just bitches, LOL! Seriously, if a person isn't smart enough to figure out how a system works before they enter it, then IMHO it's on their shoulders if they don't know what they're doing. However, the simple math that Trammer put up and that I agreed with because even I was able to follow it with no problem would show that they don't want you to know the real odds for fear of losing money due to dwindling applications.

tallbuck1 · Dec 18, 2015

Trammer,

I also think it is a crock with the draw odd's that are shown on the web. I think they show the numbers the way the do just to help people think that 1 in 6 is some hope rather than the actual numbers...

Also, I would love to have actual numbers on NR's moving to utah to fulfill there tags. I can visually see quite a few guys doing that and then screwing the residents by taking the tags from the long term guys. Not really doing it with that mind set but just to get their long term hunting goals done, and that being a cheep and easy way.

Tallbuck1

TOPGUN · Dec 18, 2015

>Trammer,
>
>I also think it is a
>crock with the draw odd's
>that are shown on the
>web. I think they
>show the numbers the way
>the do just to help
>people think that 1 in
>6 is some hope rather
>than the actual numbers...
>
>Also, I would love to have
>actual numbers on NR's moving
>to utah to fulfill there
>tags. I can visually
>see quite a few guys
>doing that and then screwing
>the residents by taking the
>tags from the long term
>guys. Not really doing
>it with that mind set
>but just to get their
>long term hunting goals done,
>and that being a cheep
>and easy way.
>
>
>
>Tallbuck1

I can see some diehard hunters doing that if there is tag they feel they just have to have before they die, but I certainly can't see how you can say that it's "a cheap and easy way" like you did!

Zeke · Dec 18, 2015

>Zeke, I am pretty disappointed. I
>thought we agreed on everything.
>Please point something out that
>we dont agree on because
>I am curious now.

I couldn't bring myself to say we agree on everything lest egos gets in the way of our friendship! LOL

Best,
Zeke

Vanilla · Dec 18, 2015

Trammer said:

"As I understand the average net worth of retiree in the USA is about $500,000. Now sportsmen from around the country and even around the world are choosing to retire to Utah...because they can double their net worth in OIL permits when they do.When they become residents their Nonresident bonus points become resident bonus points. So retirees are now buying condos in places like St George living in them for 6 months of the year. Then drawing a Desert Bighorn the first year of retirement, a Rocky the second a goat or buff the third. The Math now says they will likey draw all 5 OIL permits in the first 5 years of residency. Effectively jumping ahead of ALL residents who are limited by the Buffoons to 1 OIL Bonus point per year."

While this conspiracy theory sounds great, it's flawed on a ton of levels. I won't even go into the unlikelihood of this idea of people having the foresight to plan their retirement in this way. I'll simply address the completely objective aspect of point accrual and how this theory fails.

For sake of argument, let's say Jim has max points (22) as a non-resident in all 5 OIL species, and retired a few months ago and has bought his condo in St George. He is now a resident, and must designate which OIL species he has to put in for that year, but will not accrue a point in any of the others. He draws one permit, but the following year he will no longer have max points for any species. Say the 22 he has is still good enough to draw a second species in year two, by the time year 3 as a resident comes around, he is now 3 years behind max for his next desired species. And so forth as he works his way through the 5 species. Could he just get dumb lucky and draw all 5 in 5 years? I guess so, but so could you and I. You stated that the math says it is likely they will draw all 5 in first 5 years. That is like saying it is "likely" that I will win the lottery.

My hypothetical scenario doesn't even work based upon the DWR's posted applicant/bonus point data. There is not a single non-resident with max points for either Rockies or Mt Goat. In fact, not a single non-resident had more than 16 points last year. If they come over as residents, every year that passes they fall further behind. And that goes for every species as well.

These very forward thinking retirees certainly have an advantage, but the sky is not falling. Not even close.

sticksender · Dec 18, 2015

The option for NR to apply for all OIL species didn't start until 2009. Most of us NR's have a bunch of points for one species, and just a few points for all the others. For anyone with even a meager understanding of mathematics, this change in 2009 was actually a devastating blow to NR's who want to draw any OIL tag in the future. Because there are now 5 times as many applicants in the NR draw pool for each OIL species. And thanks Vanilla for articulating the flawed logic in the "NR retirement state" argument.

PleaseDear · Dec 18, 2015

All I need to draw is my Desert Ram and harvest then I will have all the OIL on my T-Room wall....

I haven't been into the Odds for quite a few years now-----I just go for the unit I have knowledge/experience with in and see how it plays out....

Life does go on

Robb

elkassassin · Dec 18, 2015

I was wondering why several Guy's moved out of State but Plan on Retiring/comming back to TARDville after they've STACKED Once In a Lifetime Bonus Points!

UN-F'N-REAL!!!

I'm Living & Dieing with the Choices
I've Made!

Go Ahead!

Make Me take it down!

http://www.monstermuleys.info/photos/us
er_photos3/9001hank2.jpg

Stonefly · Dec 19, 2015

How long before the DWR comes up with a "mentoring" program for retirees ,One where residents pay out of towners to build points for them??? More money for the DWR.... I can see it happening

Trammer · Dec 20, 2015

Thank You Vanilla for pointing out that NR have only been able to put in for all OIL permits for 6 years. But isnt the same thing true of ELK, Deer etc? Cant a NON Resident with Max points on Deer ELK Desert Sheep, Antelope move to Utah in year 1 draw a Henry MT Deer Tag, In year 2 draw a San Juan Elk tag, In year 3 draw a Zion Desert Sheep tag, in year 4 draw a NSR Antelope Tag etc? So my question is, havent Non Residents been able to do the same thing with Big game since 1994? Arent those tags still worth 1/4 million dollars on the open market? My point is, isnt just a Henrys Deers Tag and Zion Desert tag, valued at arguably at $200,000 incentive enough to jump to the head of the line when considering retiring in Mesquite vs St George. What I am saying is that its already happening and the Max points pool may already be growing rather than shrinking.

Blow_n_Smoke · Dec 20, 2015

Trammer
Do any states show actual odds or is Utah the only one that does "moron math"? In all my hunt research over the years, I haven't found any website or publication that calculates actual odds. I'm not saying you are wrong and I would like to see actual numbers listed, but I don't think singling utah out as "morons" is right.

TOPGUN · Dec 20, 2015

LAST EDITED ON Dec-20-15 AT 12:27PM (MST)[p]>Trammer
>Do any states show actual odds
>or is Utah the only
>one that does "moron math"?
>In all my hunt research
>over the years, I haven't
>found any website or publication
>that calculates actual odds. I'm
>not saying you are wrong
>and I would like to
>see actual numbers listed, but
>I don't think singling utah
>out as "morons" is right.
>

You obviously haven't looked at how Wyoming posts the odds of drawing a tag for every big game animal in every single draw they run, whether it's their random draws or ones where preference points are used.

brdhuntr · Dec 20, 2015

Hey Trammer,you can check The Idaho F&G website. They break it down for draw odds pretty well.And if you notice, there are some hunts where the N.R. has drawn more hunts than the Resident, percentage wise. We also don't have P.P. and hopefully never will.

sticksender · Dec 20, 2015

brdhuntr, yes Idaho's odds report is useful for residents. But not so much for NR's. The report is easy to mis-interpret for NR's, and can give a false sense of NR odds being better than they really are. That's because the report doesn't incorporate the 10% NR cap. For example if there were only 4 NR's who applied for a particular sheep tag, and one of those 4 NR happened to be so fortunate to draw the tag, his odds were not 1:4. The reason is that there are no specific tags allocated to NR's, only a 10% ceiling applied to the entire allocation of tags for the species. The aforementioned lucky NR just happened to have his name pulled very, very early in the draw process, before the overall NR ceiling was hit. But you can figure the "average odds" based on the total number of NR applicants versus the total number of NR's drawing tags. Usually about 200:1 for sheep.

But I agree with Topgun that the Wyoming reports are a real good example of a G&F dept going to the trouble to present the true historical odds.