HornedToad
Active Member
- Messages
- 410
Wyoming has posted its updated summary of preference points going into the 2015 draw:
http://wgfd.wyo.gov/web2011/hunting-1000147.aspx
Of the 16 NR's with a MAX of 19 PP for bighorn sheep going into the 2014 draw, none applied for a permit, but all applied for a PP, leaving 16 NR's with a new MAX of 20 PP going into the 2015 draw. This is beginning to look like a game of seeing who will be the last man standing.
Based on the above data, I have updated my model to predict the median year each point class could expect to draw a NR bighorn permit in the future years draw. For this year, I have only addressed the top ten point classes (going out beyond thirty years seems hardly realistic). The attrition rate for all point classes has fallen to an all-time low, now on average less than 4% annually. For example, for the top fifteen point classes going into the 2014 draw, there were 4,740 NR with from 5 to 19 PP. Of these, 43 drew permits in the 2014 Preference Point permit draw, leaving 4,697 to enter the PP-Only draw. Of these 4,511 received an additional PP, meaning that only 186, or 3.96%, dropped out of the process. At that low rate of attrition, it will mean even more years of waiting before most applicants can expect to draw a NR bighorn permit in Wyoming.
For NR applicants going into the 2015 Wyoming bighorn sheep draw, listed below are - (A) Number of PP, (B) Number of NR, (C) Predicted Median Year to Draw, and (D) change from prediction of previous year:
(A) (B) (C) (D)
01 1317
02 733
03 655
04 649
05 460
06 437
07 418
08 407
09 367
10 340 2044 (+9)
11 424 2041 (+8)
12 448 2037 (+7)
13 463 2034 (+6)
14 419 2030 (+4)
15 417 2027 (+3)
16 128 2022 (+2)
17 117 2020 (+2)
18 060 2018 (+1)
19 050 2017 (+1)
20 016 2016 (+1)
The Median Year can be thought of as the average year in which a person in a given PP class could expect to draw. Half would draw before the median while half would draw after. In general, those drawing earlier than the median would be applying in secondary (or less in demand) units, while those drawing later would be applying in primary (or most in demand) units.
The Predicted Median Year to Draw is based on a model that includes a number of assumptions, including (a) that the number of permits offered in the Non-Resident preference point draw remains constant at the current level, and (b) the annual attrition rate in each PP class (those dropping out of the draw) remains consistent with the average of the previous three years. Obviously, if either of these assumptions is off, the predicted years to draw would change measurably.
The annual attrition rates assumed in the above model remains a significant variable. For the 2014 draw, the actual attrition rate was substantially lower for all points classes compared to the model prediction. This lower rate of attrition is the principal reason most point classes saw additional years added to their expected median year to draw a tag.
For now, more participants are choosing to stay with the PP-Only draw, which will only increase the number of years required to draw a permit. It may be that the passage of years since the 2009-2011 economic recession has reduced the number of applicants each year deciding to forego the $100 cost for a NR sheep PP.
Small changes in attrition rates can make a big difference in the number of future applicants for permits, particularly when the compounding of years is taken into account. This is why the incremental number of years to draw increased substantially for this year compared to the previous year. Since 2011, attrition rates have been falling steadily. Projected forward, on a compounded basis, this implies many more applicants holding on for years waiting to draw their Wyoming bighorn permit. Obviously, something has got to give. No person gets to apply forever. But for now, most applicants seem to be willing to continue to play the game, counting on "the other guy" to drop out of the race.
Good luck to all in the 2015 Draw.
Horned Toad
http://wgfd.wyo.gov/web2011/hunting-1000147.aspx
Of the 16 NR's with a MAX of 19 PP for bighorn sheep going into the 2014 draw, none applied for a permit, but all applied for a PP, leaving 16 NR's with a new MAX of 20 PP going into the 2015 draw. This is beginning to look like a game of seeing who will be the last man standing.
Based on the above data, I have updated my model to predict the median year each point class could expect to draw a NR bighorn permit in the future years draw. For this year, I have only addressed the top ten point classes (going out beyond thirty years seems hardly realistic). The attrition rate for all point classes has fallen to an all-time low, now on average less than 4% annually. For example, for the top fifteen point classes going into the 2014 draw, there were 4,740 NR with from 5 to 19 PP. Of these, 43 drew permits in the 2014 Preference Point permit draw, leaving 4,697 to enter the PP-Only draw. Of these 4,511 received an additional PP, meaning that only 186, or 3.96%, dropped out of the process. At that low rate of attrition, it will mean even more years of waiting before most applicants can expect to draw a NR bighorn permit in Wyoming.
For NR applicants going into the 2015 Wyoming bighorn sheep draw, listed below are - (A) Number of PP, (B) Number of NR, (C) Predicted Median Year to Draw, and (D) change from prediction of previous year:
(A) (B) (C) (D)
01 1317
02 733
03 655
04 649
05 460
06 437
07 418
08 407
09 367
10 340 2044 (+9)
11 424 2041 (+8)
12 448 2037 (+7)
13 463 2034 (+6)
14 419 2030 (+4)
15 417 2027 (+3)
16 128 2022 (+2)
17 117 2020 (+2)
18 060 2018 (+1)
19 050 2017 (+1)
20 016 2016 (+1)
The Median Year can be thought of as the average year in which a person in a given PP class could expect to draw. Half would draw before the median while half would draw after. In general, those drawing earlier than the median would be applying in secondary (or less in demand) units, while those drawing later would be applying in primary (or most in demand) units.
The Predicted Median Year to Draw is based on a model that includes a number of assumptions, including (a) that the number of permits offered in the Non-Resident preference point draw remains constant at the current level, and (b) the annual attrition rate in each PP class (those dropping out of the draw) remains consistent with the average of the previous three years. Obviously, if either of these assumptions is off, the predicted years to draw would change measurably.
The annual attrition rates assumed in the above model remains a significant variable. For the 2014 draw, the actual attrition rate was substantially lower for all points classes compared to the model prediction. This lower rate of attrition is the principal reason most point classes saw additional years added to their expected median year to draw a tag.
For now, more participants are choosing to stay with the PP-Only draw, which will only increase the number of years required to draw a permit. It may be that the passage of years since the 2009-2011 economic recession has reduced the number of applicants each year deciding to forego the $100 cost for a NR sheep PP.
Small changes in attrition rates can make a big difference in the number of future applicants for permits, particularly when the compounding of years is taken into account. This is why the incremental number of years to draw increased substantially for this year compared to the previous year. Since 2011, attrition rates have been falling steadily. Projected forward, on a compounded basis, this implies many more applicants holding on for years waiting to draw their Wyoming bighorn permit. Obviously, something has got to give. No person gets to apply forever. But for now, most applicants seem to be willing to continue to play the game, counting on "the other guy" to drop out of the race.
Good luck to all in the 2015 Draw.
Horned Toad
