Gorilla
Active Member
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As I get ready to spend my non-res Wyoming elk points, I wanted to understand each area's point creep rate over time so I know if I have a realistic shot of drawing (based on history). If a unit's point creep rate is growing at pace greater than or equal to my accrual of 1 point per year, I likely wont apply for that unit.
The random draw odds are basically zero (1-2%) across the board, so there would be no need analyze the random draw odds.
I wrote a script to import all the non-res pref point Elk draw odds since 2010 in to a database and built a simple dashboard to visualize the data.
Interesting bit of information... for a non-resident hunter in 2023 to draw a limited quota bull elk tag, it required on average across the state of Wyoming nearly 9 pref points to draw the tag in the special price draw and 10 pref points in the regular price draw. So that means the extra money in the special draw on average buys one extra pref point, which I know is not ground breaking info.
The average point creep rate for limited quote elk tags is .57 per year. In other words if you are 2 points away from drawing a tag, on average it will take 3-4 years to make up the ground and draw that tag.
Next step is to see if I can understand the point creep driver(s) by area; hunters who have been on the sideline and have decided to now jump in or if it is higher/max point holders who have switched from the few max impossible draw odds to a guaranteed tag or a reduction in available tags. Or maybe it is just the fact that more new non-res hunters are entering the system each year and they are just slowing working up through the system over time.
It will be interesting to see how the general area change and the special tag price change effect the odds of drawing an elk tag over the next 2-3 years.
FYI...the special price is not always better. In 2021 for area 55-1, the regular draw odds were 5 points better than the special
The random draw odds are basically zero (1-2%) across the board, so there would be no need analyze the random draw odds.
I wrote a script to import all the non-res pref point Elk draw odds since 2010 in to a database and built a simple dashboard to visualize the data.
Interesting bit of information... for a non-resident hunter in 2023 to draw a limited quota bull elk tag, it required on average across the state of Wyoming nearly 9 pref points to draw the tag in the special price draw and 10 pref points in the regular price draw. So that means the extra money in the special draw on average buys one extra pref point, which I know is not ground breaking info.
The average point creep rate for limited quote elk tags is .57 per year. In other words if you are 2 points away from drawing a tag, on average it will take 3-4 years to make up the ground and draw that tag.
Next step is to see if I can understand the point creep driver(s) by area; hunters who have been on the sideline and have decided to now jump in or if it is higher/max point holders who have switched from the few max impossible draw odds to a guaranteed tag or a reduction in available tags. Or maybe it is just the fact that more new non-res hunters are entering the system each year and they are just slowing working up through the system over time.
It will be interesting to see how the general area change and the special tag price change effect the odds of drawing an elk tag over the next 2-3 years.
FYI...the special price is not always better. In 2021 for area 55-1, the regular draw odds were 5 points better than the special